DOJ Report: Carceral Population Falls, 2017-2018
According to the report, the population under correctional supervision has declined every year since peaking at 7,339,600 in 2007. In 2018, it was estimated to be 6,410,000, a 19-year low and a 12.3% reduction in absolute numbers. The 2018 figure also represents a 2.1% reduction compared to the estimated 6,549,700-strong correctional supervised population in 2017.
The greatest decline was the population on probation, which decreased by 17.1% between 2008 and 2018, accounting for 81% of the total correctional population decline in that decade—which had a 2.4% reduction between 2017 and 2018. By contrast, the number of people on parole increased 6.3% between 2008 and 2018 and increased 0.3% between 2017 and 2018.
The prisoner population declined 8.9% (prisons) and 6.0% (jails) between 2008 and 2018. Between 2017 and 2018, it declined 1.6% (prisons) and 0.9% (jails). The overall prisoner population decline was 8.1%, from an estimated 2,310,300 in 2008 to 2,123,100 in 2018. The annual change in number of prisoners was a decline of 1.4% from 2,153,600 in 2017.
In 2008, 1 in 32 (3,160 per 100,000) American adults were under correctional supervision. The rate decreased to 1 in 39 by 2017 (2,590 per 100,000) and 1 in 40 (2,510 per 100,000) by 2018. The decline represents a 21% decrease in the rate of incarceration between 2008 and 2018.
The rates also changed for those adults on parole or probation and those who were incarcerated in prisons or jails from 2,200 per 100,000 U.S. adults (parole/probation) and 1,000 per 100,000 (prison/jail) in 2008 to 1,780 (parole/probation) and 850 (prison/jail) in 2017 and further to 1,730 per 100,000 (parole/probation) and 830 (prison/jail) in 2018.
The correctional supervision rate per 100,000 adult U.S. residents was 2,510 in 2018. That is the lowest it has been since 1992, when it was 2,490 per 100,000 adults. Likewise, the rate of adults on probation or parole was similar to the rate in 1990. This represents an increase in the absolute number of people on parole or probation of 1.2 million during a time in which the nation’s adult U.S. resident population increased by nearly 69 million. The interplay between an increasing U.S. population and decreasing correctional supervision population is such that 42% of the decrease in correctional supervision rates between 2008 and 2018 are attributable to the increased national population while the remaining 58% is due to a decrease in the number of people under correctional supervision.
In absolute numbers, the 2018 correctional supervision population breaks down as an estimated 3,540,000 (55.2%) on probation, 878,000 (13.7%) on parole, 1,465,200 (22.9%) in prison, and 738,400 (11.5%) in jail. This compares with the 2008 figures of 4,271,200 (58.4%) on probation, 826,100 (11.3%) on parole, 1,608,300 (22.0%) in prison, and 785,500 (10.7%) in jail.
The change in the correctional population between 2008 and 2018 represented a decrease of 731,300 probationers, 143,100 prisoners in state and federal prisons, and 47,100 jail prisoners as well as an increase of 51,900 parolees.
In 2018, Texas had the highest corrections population (672,400) and the most adult prisoners (218,000), followed by California (513,100 / 200,700).
Other top contenders were Georgia (495,200 / 89,700), Pennsylvania (360,200 / 77,900), and Florida (357,400 / 150,500).
Oklahoma had the highest rate of incarceration in prisons or jails per 100,000 adults (1,290), followed by Louisiana (1,280), Mississippi (1,210), Georgia (1,110), Kentucky (1,080), Arkansas (1,070), Alabama (1,060), and Texas (1,010).
States with the lowest incarceration rates were Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont (320 per 100,000 adults), and Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire (all 370 per 100,000). The District of Columbia’s rate was 310 per 100,000 adults.
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