Trump Outpolled Harris in Pre-Election Survey Behind Bars
A July 2024 survey of 11,500 people held in 542 prisons and jails found that 44% supported the candidacy of former Pres. Donald J. Trump (R), who then went on to win a second nonconsecutive term in the White House. His opponent, Vice-Pres. Kamala Harris (D), came in second at 35%—though that represented a significant improvement over the 20% who indicated support for the now-withdrawn candidacy of Pres. Joseph R. Biden, Jr. (D).
Conducted by The Marshall Project (TMP), the survey found that support for Harris among Black respondents increased from 26% to 51% after Biden withdrew; that also cut Black support for Trump from 40% to 28%. The ticket change drove up support for Harris among white respondents from 15% to 24%. But Trump retained a lock on this group, polling 60% of those responding. The comparisons were drawn between the recent survey and an earlier version that drew on a larger sample of 54,000 people in 785 prisons and jails in 45 states and D.C.
Trump is the first major-party candidate for President with a felony record; he was convicted by a New York jury in June 2024 of falsifying his business records to cover up hush money paid to porn actress Stormy Daniels, who said it was payment for having sex with him nearly 20 years ago. Trump denied that claim but hasn’t said what the payment was for. Some survey respondents took pity on the candidate for this, criticizing Harris for making Trump’s conviction a campaign issue.
Others were already turned off by Biden’s role in passing a draconian 1994 anti-crime bill while he was a U.S. Senator from Delaware; replacing him with Harris, a former California prosecutor, did not win over this group. Yet Trump’s support behind bars defied his calls for capital punishment for drug convictions and criticism of police reform efforts.
TMP noted that racial segregation in prisons and jails affects what news programs are watched, reinforcing a split in support for candidates along racial lines. White detainees and prisoners were more likely to watch Fox News and Newsmax while CNN and MSNBC drew more Black viewers behind bars. TMP’s first such survey in 2020 also found strong support for Trump, that year’s losing candidate; the result sent shockwaves through the movement to re-enfranchise former felons, who were until then assumed to vote Democratic.
Source: The Marshall Project