Decoding Recidivism: Unraveling Its Complex Metrics and Real Impact
When the Iowa Department of Corrections (DOC) reported a drop in the recidivism rate for its state prisoners on December 15, 2023, it joined prison systems in Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia that have also celebrated lower recidivism rates.
But while tracking new criminal activities by convicted offenders after their release from prison provides a crucial metric to evaluate the effectiveness of rehabilitation and reentry programs, criminologists caution against attributing lower rates to any specific programs without also considering population shifts and the impact of events like the COVID-19 pandemic.
The pandemic, in particular, led to increased releases of nonviolent offenders from prisons and jails, which will likely suppress recidivism rates over the next few years, according to RAND Corporation economist and criminologist Shawn Bushway. The lack of a national standard for measuring recidivism also makes it challenging to compare jurisdictions and programs. There is little consistency in defining what offenses constitute a criminal relapse nor how long after release prisoners are tracked. Measurement and reporting also occur at different times in different states.
Virginia reported a 20.3% recidivism rate in January 2023, the lowest in the country it said—at least among states that track prisoners for three years after release. Tennessee, which reported a 29.6% rate in October 2023, is another. But Kentucky prisoners were tracked just two years for the 27.15% rate that the state reported in May 2023. And South Carolina’s three-year rate of 21.9% was also the country’s lowest—back when it was reported in July 2021.
Jeffrey Butts, from John Jay College of Criminal Justice, also cautioned against using recidivism rates as a measure of public safety, which many politicians do. Gauging solely whether someone reoffends—think of someone sentenced for assault who is later convicted of trespassing—the rate doesn’t necessarily reflect the true impact on public safety.
To provide a more comprehensive view of prisoner success post-release, advocates recommend alternative indicators such as employment and housing stability. A 2022 report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine suggests pairing recidivism rates with measures that capture progress away from crime, like reductions in the seriousness of charges or increased time lapsed between release and a new criminal act, known as “desistance.”
Sources: AP News, KAAL, Stateline, Tenn. DOC, Va. DOC, WCIV
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