The Correctional Policy Project:
Iowa Prison Population Forecast
FY 2015-FY 2025

January 1, 2016

Sarah Johnson, M.A., Primary Author

Iowa Department of Human Rights
Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning
Steve Michael, Division Administrator

Iowa Department of Human Rights
Division of
Criminal & Juvenile Justice Planning
& Statistical Analysis Center
321 E. 12th Street
Des Moines, Iowa 50319
(515) 242-5823
https://humanrights.iowa.gov/cjjp

TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... 2
I. FORWARD .......................................................................................................................... 3
Benefits of Forecasting ................................................................................................................ 3
Iowa’s Forecasting Model ............................................................................................................ 3
Forecasting Assumptions ............................................................................................................. 4
Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................... 5
II. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK ..................................................................................................... 5
Figure 1: Projected Prison Populations and Official Capacities: Mid-Year 2016 ..................... 5
III. LONG-TERM OUTLOOK ..................................................................................................... 6
Total Inmates ............................................................................................................................... 6
Male & Female Inmates............................................................................................................... 6
Prison Capacity ............................................................................................................................ 6
Figure 3: Actual and Forecasted Number of Female Inmates ................................................. 7
Figure 4: Actual and Forecasted Number of Male Inmates ..................................................... 7
Source: Justice Data Warehouse. ........................................................................................... 7
IV. HISTORIC PRISON FORECASTS ........................................................................................... 8
Figure 5: Historical Forecast Figures Final 10-Year Projections ............................................... 8
Prison population figures based on June 30th data. ................................................................ 8
V. FACTORS REDUCING PRISON GROWTH .............................................................................. 9
1.) Increases in New Aggravated Misdemeanant Prison Entries................................................. 9
2.) Decreases in Average (mean) Time Served Prior to Release .................................................. 9
3.) Increases in Parolees .............................................................................................................. 9
VI. FACTORS CONTINUING PRISON GROWTH ....................................................................... 10
Increases in Prison Admissions .................................................................................................. 10
Figure 6: Actual and Forecasted Prison Admissions .............................................................. 10
Figure 7: Prison Admissions by Admission Type .................................................................... 11
1.) Changes in Felony Charges and Convictions ........................................................................ 11
Figure 8: Total Felony Charges and Convictions .................................................................... 12
2.) Drug Offender Admissions .................................................................................................... 12
Figure 9: New Prison Admissions by Offense Type ................................................................ 13
Source: Justice Data Warehouse ............................................................................................ 13
Figure 10: Primary Drug of New Prison Admissions .............................................................. 13
Source: Justice Data Warehouse ............................................................................................... 13
3.) Increases in the number of Class B Felons Incarcerated ...................................................... 13
4.) Changes in Parole Eligibility for Class B and C felons due to Mandatory Minimums ........... 13
Figure 11: Distribution of Total, 70% and Non-70% Incarcerated Offenders by Race FY 2015
................................................................................................................................................ 14

5.) Increases of Sex Offenders Incarcerated Including Special Sentence Revocations .............. 15
6.) Increases in Housing Class A Felons ..................................................................................... 15
7.) Housing Federal Prisoners/Detainees .................................................................................. 15
8.) Increases in Inmate Average Length of Stay (LOS) ............................................................... 15
Figure 12: Average Length-of-Stay by Offense Class in Months, FY 2006 and FY 2015 ........ 17
9.) Increases and Decreases in Paroles ...................................................................................... 18
Figure 13: Prison Releases FY 2006 - FY 2015 ........................................................................ 18
10.) Changes in Community-Based Offender Populations ........................................................ 18
Figure 14: End-of-Year Parole and Probation Populations (Field Supervision) ..................... 19
VII. OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHANGE ....................................................................................... 20
Figure 15: Ending Prison Population since 1925 .................................................................... 20
Increases in Parolees .............................................................................................................. 20
Response to Drug Offenders .................................................................................................. 21
Sex Offender Legislation ........................................................................................................ 21
Juvenile Offender Legislation ................................................................................................. 22
APPENDIX I: Prison Population Forecasted Figures ............................................................... 23
Table 1: Mid-Year Prison Populations and Capacities: Total ................................................. 23
Table 2: Mid-Year Prison Populations and Capacities: Females ............................................ 24
Table 3: Mid-Year Prison Populations and Capacities: Males ................................................ 25
APPENDIX II: Prison Admission Populations and Forecasts ................................................... 26
Table 4: Prison Admissions by Admission Reason: FY 2006 - FY 2015 ................................... 26
Table 5: New Prison Admission by Offense Type and Subtype ............................................. 27
Table 6: New Admissions by Offense Class ............................................................................ 28
Table 7: Prison Admissions: Actual and Projected ................................................................. 29
APPENDIX III: Prison Release Populations ............................................................................ 30
Table 8: Prison Releases by Release Reason: FY 2006-FY 2015 ............................................. 30
APPENDIX IV: LOS for Release Cohorts ................................................................................. 31
Table 9: Inmate Mean Length of Stay for Offenders Exiting Prison (In Months), by Fiscal Year
................................................................................................................................................ 31
Table 10: Inmate Mean Length Of Stay for Offenders Exiting Prison (In Months), by Fiscal
Year Cont… ............................................................................................................................. 32
APPENDIX V: Probation Populations and Revocations Information ....................................... 33
Table 11: Percentage of Probation Population Revoked, FY 2005-FY 2014 .......................... 33
APPENDIX VI. Prison Population Demographics ................................................................... 34
Table 12: Prison Population Demographic Trends ................................................................. 34

Completion of this report fulfills the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning’s
legislative obligations outlined in Iowa Code §216A.137. This section of the Iowa Code instructs
CJJP to “maintain an Iowa correctional policy project for the purpose of conducting analyses of
major correctional issues affecting the criminal and juvenile justice system”.1

1

Legislative Services Agency. (2015) Code of Iowa.
1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This is the twenty-fourth Prison Population Forecast prepared by the Department of Human
Rights, Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP). This report has been developed
to assist the Executive and Legislative Branches of government in annually assessing the impact
of current criminal justice policy on Iowa’s prison population. This report is not an attempt to
predict the future of Iowa’s prison population. Instead, it is meant to provide an indication of
the direction Iowa can anticipate its prison population will move under current policies and
procedures.
Short-term projections suggest that Iowa’s prison population is expected to remain stable
through the end of FY 2016, with a population of around 8,408. Long term projections suggest
Iowa's prison population may be expected to increase from 8,188 inmates on June 30, 2015 to
about 10,058 inmates on June 30, 2025, or by about 23% over the ten-year period (Appendix I,
Table 1).
Past forecasts have projected similar figures. For instance, in FY 2010, CJJP predicted the prison
population to be at 10,409 within ten years.2 However, this year’s forecast is lower than what
was predicted in FY 2014.3 There are several factors responsible for driving the forecasted
figures observed in FY 2015.
Between FY 2014 and FY 2015, there was a decrease in prison admissions (Appendix II, Table 4).
Comparing FY 2014 and FY 2015 we observed decreases in length-of-stay (LOS) for many
offense categories (Appendix IV, Table 9). Another contributing factor is the release of 70%
Robbery 2nd offenders; offenders who served lengthy incarceration terms and who have, and
continue to be, a factor contributing to prison population growth. Lastly, for the past three
years, the Iowa Board of Parole (BOP) has consistently paroled approximately two individuals
per one individual released by way of sentence expiration.
There are several actions, which if taken, are believed to alter the prison population outcome
forecasted in this analysis. This analysis suggests that opportunities include, but are not limited
to, continued use of parole for appropriate inmates, modifications to sex offender legislation,
modifications to mandatory minimum sentences, modifications to drug sentencing, and
continued study of sentencing practices for juveniles. It is noteworthy that Iowa’s Public Safety
Advisory Board (PSAB) and Sex Offender Research Council (SORC) have provided legislative
recommendations specific to these issues. More detail as to these opportunities as well as
legislative recommendations made by the PSAB or SORC are included within the “Opportunities
for Change” portion of this analysis.

2
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https://humanrights.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/media/Forecast2014%5B1%5D.pdf
https://humanrights.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/media/Forecast2013%5B1%5D.pdf
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I. FORWARD
This is the twenty-fourth Prison Population Forecast prepared by the Department of Human
Rights, Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP). This report has been developed
to assist the Executive and Legislative Branches of government in annually assessing the impact
of current criminal justice policy on Iowa’s prison population. This report is not an attempt to
predict the future of Iowa’s prison population. Instead, it is meant to provide an indication of
the direction Iowa can anticipate its prison population will move under current policies and
procedures. As these are modified, the State can anticipate different results in future forecasts.
The present report utilizes data obtained from Iowa’s Justice Data Warehouse (JDW), which is
managed by CJJP. “The Justice Data Warehouse (JDW) is a central repository of key criminal and
juvenile justice information from the Iowa Court Information System (ICIS) and information
from the Iowa Correctional Offender Network (ICON) system. The JDW is located on a platform
with the Information Technology Department as one part of the Enterprise Data Warehouse.
The overall mission of the JDW is to provide the Judicial, Legislative and Executive Branches of
State Government and other entities, with improved statistical and decision support
information pertaining to justice system activities.” 4
Benefits of Forecasting
 To make a determination of the number of inmates who may be incarcerated at some point
in the future, if current justice system trends, policies and practices continue.


To simulate alternative corrections futures based on specific changes in laws, policies
and/or practices. For example, data from the forecast are used extensively in estimating
changes resulting from proposed legislation.

Iowa’s Forecasting Model
The statewide prison population forecast and policy simulation model used by CJJP is a matrix
that distributes Iowa’s prison population over the projection period by quarter. There are three
basic components of the model:


4

Projected prison admissions. This is accomplished through analysis of historical prison
admissions data, obtained from the Iowa Corrections Offender Network (ICON), and felony
charges and convictions disposed from the JDW which includes statewide court
information. Projected admissions are made for various offense classes and types of
offenses (e.g., Class C 70% offenders, Class C violent [non-sex] offenders, Class C sex
offenders, and Class C non-violent offenders) in two separate categories described below.
Sex offenders as separate categories have been broken out since FY 2006, in part because
sex offenders tend to serve higher percentages of their sentences than other offenders.
Projections are accomplished through linear modeling, with adjustments based on
knowledge of recent law changes that may not yet be reflected in observed trends.

https://www.humanrights.iowa.gov/cjjp/justice-data-warehouse
3





Projected average length of stay. This projection is executed utilizing correctional data
extracted from the JDW. Projected average lengths of stay are made for various offense
classes and types of offenses in two separate categories in subsequent sections.
Projected releases of offenders who are incarcerated at the onset of the projection period
(“decay”). This is accomplished through analysis of the prison population at the beginning of
the projection period combined with historical data on numbers of inmates released. This
year’s forecast uses a technique initiated in 2007, using three different calculations based
upon the inmate group:
 The average length of time inmates have been released prior to their discharge dates;
 The average length of time inmates with mandatory terms have served;
 The average length of time served prior to release.

Prison admissions and average length of stay data are analyzed within two broad categories
based on the type of prison admission:


New Admissions are new court-ordered commitments and probation revocations. Length of
stay for this category is defined as time served in prison prior to first release (which may be
parole, work release, expiration of sentence, etc.).



Readmissions include all offenders who had one or more prior unsuccessful conditional
releases on their current commitments, including those revoked from OWI facility
placement. Length-of-stay for this category is defined as the time served in prison from the
last admission (or readmission) to release (which may be parole, work release, expiration of
sentence, etc.). Please note that, while this category is labeled “readmissions,” it includes
some offenders who were not previously incarcerated; examples include Operating While
Intoxicated (OWI) offenders who were directly placed in community-based OWI treatment
facilities but were later revoked.

Admissions are further categorized by whether or not the crime was a sex offense or another
crime against persons. Crimes against persons are those offenses involving death, injury,
attempted injury, abuse, threats, coercion, intimidation, or duress. Examples of crimes against
persons include all forms of homicide, assault, robbery, terrorism, child endangerment, first
degree burglary, and first degree arson. Examples of crimes not against persons include
burglary and arson offenses other than first degree, drug offenses, forgery, theft, and weapons
possession (as opposed to use).
Regarding length of stay figures as contained in this report:


“Drunken Driving Initial Stay” describes drunken drivers sentenced to prison who are
awaiting placement at community-based treatment facilities.

Forecasting Assumptions
 It is assumed that certain historical phenomena such as trends in population growth, prison
admissions rates, and length of stay of prisoners will continue in the same direction or will
4

change in explicitly stated ways (see below). It is further assumed that the data provided as
measurements of these phenomena accurately reflect actual conditions.
 It is assumed that no catastrophic social or economic disruptions such as war or major
depressions will occur during the projection period.
 It is assumed there will be no major legislative changes in the state criminal code or criminal
procedures during the projection period.
 It is assumed there will be no major changes in judicial sentencing, parole board release
policies, or probation/parole revocation policies and practices during the projection period.
Acknowledgments
The staff of CJJP would like to thank the following agencies and individuals for contributing to
this year’s forecast report (CJJP remains solely responsible for the report’s contents).
For providing information on current and planned prison population capacities:
 Jerry Bartruff, Director, Iowa Department of Corrections
 Lettie Prell, Research Director, Iowa Department of Corrections.
For developing the original methodologies of our prison population forecasting and policy
simulation tool:
 Mary Mande, former director of the Colorado Statistical Analysis Center and corrections
research consultant.

5

II. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
To some extent, forecasting the short-term population this year is more difficult than is the
long-term forecast, as changes in parole practice since the end of FY 2012 have contributed to a
noteworthy drop in Iowa’s prison population. After reaching a low of 8,265 inmates on
February 10, 2010, the population reached an all-time high of 9,009 in April, 2011. Since
reaching this peak, the population has continued to decline with particularly low population
figures observed for the last three fiscal years FY 2013-FY 2015.
Iowa’s prison population is expected to remain stable through the end of FY 2016, with a
population of around 8,408. By June 30, 2016, Iowa’s prison population is expected to exceed
official capacity by about 1,086 inmates, or by about 15 percent, if current offender behaviors
and justice system trends, policies, and practices continue (Appendix I, Table 1). Women’s
facilities are expected to be at 89.7% of capacity given the addition of beds at Mitchellville,
while men’s facilities are expected to hold about 1,166 more inmates than the official capacity
(Appendix I, Tables 2 and 3).
Figure 1: Projected Prison Populations and Official Capacities: Mid-Year 2016
10,000
Population Estimate

Official Capacity

8,408
7,710
8,000

7,322
6,544

Number of Inmates

6,000

4,000

2,000
698

778

0
Total Inmates

Females

Males

Source: Justice Data Warehouse
5

III. LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
Total Inmates
If current offender behaviors and justice system trends, policies, and practices continue, Iowa's
prison population may be expected to increase from 8,188 inmates on June 30, 2015 to about
10,058 inmates on June 30, 2025, or by about 23% over the ten-year period (Appendix I, Table
1).
Male & Female Inmates
The current forecast suggests that the female population will rise over the next ten years,
reaching 835 inmates in mid-2025 (Appendix I, Table 2). Because the female population is
smaller than the male population, it is to be expected that the year-to-year forecast numbers
will vary as admissions rise or fall from year-to-year (as fluctuations are more likely with smaller
numbers). The population of male inmates is expected to increase to 9,223 inmates during this
same period (Appendix I, Table 3).
Prison Capacity
When compared with official Department of Corrections prison population capacities, and
taking into consideration currently-planned increases in prison capacity, the female inmate
population is projected to exceed capacity by 7% in 2025, while the male inmate population is
projected to exceed capacity by about 40.9%, by mid-year 2025 (Appendix I, Tables 2 and 3).
Figure 2: Actual and Forecasted Number of Total Inmates
12000

Actual
Capacity

10000

Actual

8000

Forecast

6000

4000

2000

0

Source: Justice Data Warehouse
6

Figure 3: Actual and Forecasted Number of Female Inmates
900

Actual
Capacity

800

Forecast
Actual

700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

Source: Justice Data Warehouse

Figure 4: Actual and Forecasted Number of Male Inmates
10,000
9,000

Actual

Forecast

Capacity

Actual
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

Source: Justice Data Warehouse
7

IV. HISTORIC PRISON FORECASTS
This year’s prison forecast predicts prison populations to be at approximately 10,058 in ten
years. Past forecasts have projected similar figures. For instance, in FY 2010, CJJP predicted the
prison population to be at 10,409 within ten years.5 However, this year’s forecast is lower than
what was predicted in FY 2014.6
There are several factors responsible for driving the
forecasted figures observed in FY 2015.
Between FY 2014 and FY 2015, there was a decrease of prison admissions (Appendix II, Table 4).
Comparing FY 2014 and FY 2015 we also observed decreases in length-of-stay (LOS) for many
offense categories (Appendix IV, Table 9). Another contributing factor is the release of 70%
Robbery 2nd offenders; offenders who served lengthy incarceration terms and who have, and
continue to be, a factor contributing to prison population growth. Lastly, for the past three
years, the Iowa BOP has consistently paroled approximately two individuals per one individual
released by way of sentence expiration.
Figure 5: Historical Forecast Figures Final 10-Year Projections
12,400
11,925
12,000
11,600

11,383

12,127

11,300

10,582

10,000

10,329

11,317

10,409
9,730
8,900

9,025

10,058
9,243

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000
10-Year Forecasted Figures
0

Prison Population

th

Prison population figures based on June 30 data.
Source: Justice Data Warehouse
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https://humanrights.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/media/Forecast2013%5B1%5D.pdf
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V. FACTORS REDUCING PRISON GROWTH
1.) Increases in New Aggravated Misdemeanant Prison Entries
In FY 2006, 19.5% of new admissions to Iowa’s prisons were offenders whose most serious
commitment offenses were aggravated misdemeanors, crimes which expire after less than one
year of incarceration (barring consecutive sentences). Between FY 2011-FY2014 this percentage
rose to over 20% and in FY 2015 22.6% of the new admissions were aggravated
misdemeanants. These short-term inmates tend to cycle quickly, not accumulating in the
prison population (Appendix II, Table 6).
2.) Decreases in Average (mean) Time Served Prior to Release
Average time served for first-release inmates dropped from 21.5 months in FY 2013 to 19.5
months in FY 2014, and rose slightly in FY 2015 to 20.2 months. From FY 2014 to FY 2015 slight
decreases in length-of-stay (LOS) were observed for almost all C, D and Other Felony groups,
however, there was a slight increase in LOS for B felons. The drop in LOS for most felony groups
has contributed to reducing the prison population. For the last three years we have observed
particularly low prison populations, the lowest rates observed this decade (Appendix I, Table 1).
Average time served for those released after a previous release failure also dropped in FY 2014,
from 11.7 months in FY 2013 to 9.9 months in FY 2014 and rose again slightly in FY 2015 to 10.3
average months (Appendix IV, Table 10).
3.) Increases in Parolees
In 2010, 1,379 offenders were paroled, the lowest number of parolees we have seen in the last
decade. Since FY 2010, parolees increased by 18.6% through FY 2015, although from FY 2014 FY 2015, parolee exits decreased while offenders released by way of expiration-of-sentence
remained steady (Appendix III, Table 8). Between FY 2012-FY 2014 parole practices had
returned to rates observed in FY 2006 with approximately two parolees for every expiration-ofsentence.7

7

Inmates released via expiration-of-sentence are those who serve their full sentence in prison and are directly
released into the community without a period of transition such as parole or work release.
9

VI. FACTORS CONTINUING PRISON GROWTH
Increases in Prison Admissions
The forecast projects an increase in new admissions from 3,395 in FY 2015 to about 3,899 in FY
2025, and an increase in returns from 1,825 to 2,401. Until admissions are reduced, it will be
difficult to further reduce Iowa’s prison population. Admission patterns are shown in Figure 6
(Appendix II, Table 7).
Figure 6: Actual and Forecasted Prison Admissions
4,500
4,000

Actual

Forecast

3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

New Admissions
New Admissions Forecast
Returns
Returns Forecast

Source: Justice Data Warehouse

Probation revocations to prison were higher in FY 2014 than at any point during the last decade
(1,655). Similarly in FY 2014, when comparing probation revocations to probation populations,
we saw the highest percentage (7.6%) and highest rate (13:1) of offenders revoked in the last
decade (Appendix V, Table 11). In FY 2015, we observed the highest probation population since
FY2009 and a revocation rate similar to years prior (percent revoked: 7.1%; rate revoked: 14:1).
The high probation population demonstrates Iowa’s commitment to treating offenders in the
community rather than committing them to prison without an opportunity to become
productive citizens in the community. In FY 2015 we observed lower percentages and rates of
revocations indicating that more offenders are succeeding in the community than in FY 2010 –
FY 2014.
Direct court commitments reached an excess of 2,000 inmate admissions between FY 2012-FY
2014. In FY 2015, there was a decline in direct court commitments by approximately 220
inmates. This is the first substantial decline observed since FY 2008-FY 2009 (Figure 7).

10

Figure 7: Prison Admissions by Admission Type
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500

Direct Court Commitments
Probation Revocations

0

Re-Admissions

Source: Justice Data Warehouse

As discussed in the next sections, there are several factors which influence prison admission
trends:
1.) Changes in Felony Charges and Convictions
2.) Drug Offender Admissions
3.) Increases in the number of Class B Felons Incarcerated
4.) Changes in Parole Eligibility for Class B and C Felons due to Mandatory Minimums
5.) Increases of Sex Offenders Incarcerated Including Special Sentence Revocations
6.) Increases in Housing Class A Felons
7.) Housing Federal Prisoners/Detainees
8.) Increases in Inmate Average Length of Stay
9.) Increases and Decreases in Paroles
10.) Changes in Community-Based Offender Populations
1.) Changes in Felony Charges and Convictions
Projections of new prison admissions are informed by felony disposed charges and felony
convictions in the Iowa District Court. As shown in the chart below, felony charges in FY 2012
and FY 2013 rose after a long period of decline. FY 2015 felony charges were similar to figures
last observed in FY 2012.
Felony convictions fell in FY 2015 to levels last observed in FY 2011. FY 2012 through FY 2014
observed higher felony conviction rates than at any other point in the ten-year period. It is
important to note that while decreases were observed during FY 2015, felony conviction rates
continue to be higher than in FY 2006 through FY 2011.

11

Figure 8: Total Felony Charges and Convictions
30,000
26,722

Disposed Charges
26,174

Convictions
24,271

23,982

25,000

22,461

22,554
21,080

22,406

21,954

22,446

20,000

15,000

10,000

8,926

8,856

9,162

8,878

8,962

9,080

9,754

10,265

9,685

9,177

5,000

0

Source: Justice Data Warehouse

2.) Drug Offender Admissions
Drug admissions have been one of the driving forces behind rising prison populations in Iowa
for more than the past decade, reaching their peak in FY 2005, when 30% of the new inmates
entering prison were committed for drug offenses. In addition, there are other inmates who
have been committed to prison for non-drug crimes which stem from drug involvement. After
five straight years of declines in drug admissions (FY 2005 - FY 2009) to prison, new drug
admissions exceeded 900 in FY 2012, FY 2013 and FY 2014, a figure last reached in FY 2007.
Between FY 2014 and FY 2015, drug admissions declined by approximately 117 inmates.
As time passes, it becomes more evident that the rise in admissions with a drug offense as the
most serious was related to the manufacture and trafficking in methamphetamines and a
subsequent focus on the apprehension and prosecution of methamphetamine dealers and
users. Since FY 2005, admissions of methamphetamine offenders reached a low in FY 2009 but
have steadily increased, reaching a period of stability from FY 2013 - FY 2015 (Figure 10).

12

Figure 9: New Prison Admissions by Offense Type
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0

Drug
Violent
Property
Public Order

Source: Justice Data Warehouse

Figure 10: Primary Drug of New Prison Admissions
700

Cocaine
Methamphetamine

600

Marijuana

500
400
300
200
100
0

Source: Justice Data Warehouse

Fiscal Year

3.) Increases in the number of Class B Felons Incarcerated
The projection suggests 1,996 B felons in 2025, or 19.8% of the anticipated population. Most of
the anticipated rise is due to continued lengthy incarceration of Class B 70 percent inmates,
who are expected to increase from 795 to 1,087 within the decade. We have yet to observe a
substantial release of this inmate population due to their mandatory terms, although we expect
release of some inmates to occur during FY 2018 and thereafter.
4.) Changes in Parole Eligibility for Class B and C felons due to Mandatory Minimums
The Violent Crime Initiative (Iowa Code §902.12), effective FY 1997, abolished parole and most
of the earned time for a number of violent offenses and required at least 85 percent of the
maximum term be served. The offenses originally affected included all robbery and second
13

degree murder, sexual abuse, and kidnapping. Attempted murder and certain instances of
vehicular homicide were added effective FY 1998.
By mid-year 2025, CJJP estimates that about 1,822 prisoners will be serving time under these
mandatory sentencing provisions (not including sexual predators). While stability is expected in
the number of those serving 70 percent Class C sentences, CJJP estimates that those serving 70
percent Class B sentences will increase from 795 to 1,129, as the first of these offenders will not
become eligible for parole until January 2016. Additionally, substantial effects of these laws on
the prison population will be realized beyond this forecasting period.
It should be noted that, African-Americans are over represented in Iowa’s prison population but
particularly so for §902.12, 70% crimes. The total prison population is about 25.5% AfricanAmerican. Of the 7,089 non-70 percent offenders in prison on June 30th 2015, 23.9% were
African- American. Of the 1,115 70-percent offenders, 36.5% were African-American. In FY
2015, 42.9% of the new admissions for 70-percent crimes were African-American. Of the
offenders entering prison to serve 70-percent sentences for Robbery, 53.0% were AfricanAmerican (including 64.3% of the Robbery-1 admissions). Thus, it will be difficult to reduce the
racial disparity in Iowa’s prison population without somehow modifying 70-percent sentences.
It is also noteworthy that the percentage of African-Americans incarcerated from FY 2006-FY
2015 has increased by approximately 2.2% over the last ten years (Appendix VI, Table 12).
Figure 11: Distribution of Total, 70% and Non-70% Incarcerated Offenders by Race FY 2015
Total Population by Race
1.70%
0.80%

6.70%

Non-70% Offenders by
Race

70% Offenders by
Race

23.90
%
25.50
%

65.30
%

Caucasian
African-American
Asian/Pacific Islander
Native American/Alaskan Native
Hispanic

76.10
%

% African-American
% All Other Races

36.50
%
63.50
%

% African-American
% All Other Races

Source: Justice Data Warehouse

In addition to the Violent Crime Initiative, the Sexual Predator law (§901A, Iowa Code) effective
in FY 1997, imposes the requirement that certain repeat sex offenders serve 85 percent of the
maximum term, and increases those maximum terms from the sentences that would otherwise
have been imposed. While recent sentencing changes provide for parole eligibility for those
sentenced under the Violent Crime Initiative, parole remains abolished for offenders sentenced
under §901A. On June 30, 2015, there were 27 offenders serving sentences under §901A
(including one lifer), a figure expected to drop in the coming decade. There were four
additional lifers sentenced under the enhanced sentencing provisions of §902.14 (second and
14

subsequent sex offenses). In FY 2015, there were three releases of offenders sentenced under
the sexual predator provisions of §901A, but in FY 2014 no offenders were released under this
provision.
5.) Increases of Sex Offenders Incarcerated Including Special Sentence Revocations
Prison populations have seen a rise in sex offenders incarcerated. In FY 2006, there were 1,128
imprisoned sex offenders and in FY 2015 there were 1,189 (an increase of 61 over the last
decade). Adding to the increased prison population of sex offenders will include those revoked
who were serving special sentences. The number of individuals under community based special
sentence supervision is expected to continue increasing. Similarly, we observed an increase in
special sentence revocations from FY 2014 - FY 2015 by approximately 31 offenders.
6.) Increases in Housing Class A Felons
Iowa has seen its population of Class A lifers rise from 198 in 1986 to 640 on June 30, 2015. As
of June 30th 2015, 27 of the lifers in the Iowa prison system were age 70 and above, suggesting
a reduction in population over the next decade due to mortality.
As a separate group, the number of Class A sex offenders is difficult to forecast, as on June 30,
2015 there were only 18 inmates serving life sentences for sex offenses. A new Class A penalty
for subsequent sex offenses was adopted in 2005, but the first inmate sentenced under that
provision did not enter prison until 2010. Since 2010, approximately 20 offenders have entered
prison under this provision.
7.) Housing Federal Prisoners/Detainees
Much of the increase in “other” prison admissions and releases observed between FY 2005 and
FY 2009 was due to the housing of prisoners held on interstate compact and federal
prisoners/detainees. However, the number of safe keeper, compact, and other offender
admissions have remained relatively stable from FY 2010 - FY 2015 (Appendix II, Table 4).
8.) Increases in Inmate Average Length of Stay (LOS)
As parole releases rise and fall, average time served for departing inmates also tends to rise and
fall. Analysis of time served is completed by class and offense type for two groups: new
inmates who are leaving prison for the first time, and inmates who have previously been
released but have returned and are being released for a second or subsequent time. Average
time served for the second group tends to be shorter than the first group due to serving a
significant portion of their sentences prior to their original release.
Slight variations in average LOS can have considerable impact on the prison population, and
implicates how changes in parole practice can influence the population. While average time
served in prison prior to release rose slightly for new admissions and returns in FY 2015, there
were greater proportions of crime class categories with decreases in length-of-stay (Appendix
IV, Table 9).8 Comparing FY 2015 figures with FY 2006, there were increases in LOS for nearly all
B, C and Other felonies. For lower class categories such as D felonies and misdemeanors, slight
decreases in LOS were observed between FY 2006-FY 2015. While it appears that there was an
8

See the section “Forecasting the Prison Population” for a description of admission and release categories.
15

increase in the LOS for class B felon releases, this category tends to be small with approximately
14 inmates released in FY2015. The LOS for smaller release categories can be more sensitive to
outliers than larger categories.
Inmates convicted of felonies released for a second or subsequent time in FY 2015, tended to
have a lower average LOS than those released in FY 2006. Inmates convicted of misdemeanors
who were also re-admitted, tended to have a longer LOS in FY 2015 than those during FY 2006.
Note that sex offenders in every category tend to serve more time in prison than other inmates
within the same offense classes. With the creation of the Special Sentence providing for postincarceration supervision for all sex offenders with offenses committed after June 30, 2005,
CJJP expects a continuation of the pattern that results in most sex offenders being released
from prison via expiration of sentence.9

9

Johnson, S. and Davidson, C. 2014. An Analysis of the Sex Offender Special Sentence in Iowa. The Division of
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning.
16

Figure 12: Average Length-of-Stay by Offense Class in Months, FY 2006 and FY 2015
FY 2015

Average LOS: First-Releases

FY 2006
B Felony Sex
B Felony Persons
B Felony Non-Persons
C Felony Sex
C Felony Persons
C Felony Non-Persons
D Felony Sex
D Felony Non-Persons
D Felony Persons
Other Felony
Aggravated Misd Sex
Aggravated Misd Persons
Aggravated Misd Non-Persons
0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0
FY 2015

Average LOS: Re-Releases

FY 2006

B Felony
C Felony
D Felony
Other Felony
All Misdmeanors
All Returns
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Source: Justice Data Warehouse

17

9.) Increases and Decreases in Paroles
Paroles decreased in FY 2013 through FY 2015, returning to a level last seen in FY 2012. For the
last three fiscal years, the ratio of paroles to expirations, which provides a good indicator of
prison release practices, has remained at about two paroles per one expiration; levels last
observed in FY 2006.
While our current prison population is much higher than historical figures, it is clear that the
low prison population experienced in the past three years is due in large part to a change in
parole practice. While the Board of Parole (BOP) and Department of Corrections (DOC) use a
variety of validated tools to identify the lowest risk candidates for release, it is inevitable that
some released inmates will return to prison as the result of violations of release conditions
and/or new criminal activity. The extent to which these can be controlled has a direct
relationship to changes in the size of the prison population.
Figure 13: Prison Releases FY 2006 - FY 2015
3,000

Parole
Work Release

2,500

OWI Facility
Expiration

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

Source: Justice Data Warehouse

10.) Changes in Community-Based Offender Populations
As shown in Figure 14, probation and parole populations have varied over the past ten years.
While the relationship is not necessarily linear, there appears to be a connection between the
number of offenders under supervision in the community and the number eventually entering
prison.
The parole supervision population has increased and decreased during the decade, with the
peak figure of 3,668 parolees in FY 2014. FY 2015 figures suggest a slight decline in parole
populations since FY 2014, with levels similar to those last observed between FY 2006 and FY
2007. Return admissions (parole and work release revocations) rose in FY 2015 and are at the
highest figure observed within this time period. The extent to which the released inmates are
18

successful on parole and work release will have a substantial bearing on growth or reduction in
Iowa’s prison population.
The end-of-year probation population has decreased 1.3 percent since FY 2006 (22,236
offenders in FY 2006 and 21,947 offenders in FY 2015), with an accompanying decline in
probation revocations of 2.7% (Appendix II, Table 4).
Note: In the parole supervision chart (Figure 14) the number of Special Sentence offenders has
been added (in red). This population is expected to rise dramatically in the next ten years given
that currently there are 1,168 sex offenders incarcerated who will be released in the future, 991
of whom will receive lifetime community supervision.
Figure 14: End-of-Year Parole and Probation Populations (Field Supervision)
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500

Parole
Special Sentence

1,000
500
0

22,600
22,400
22,200

Probation

22,000
21,800
21,600
21,400
21,200
21,000
20,800
20,600

Source: Justice Data Warehouse

19

VII. OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHANGE
From 1925-1975, the Iowa prison population remained steady at about 2,000 inmates with a
peak population around 3,000 inmates in the 1930’s. Since 1975, Iowa’s prison population has
increased to more than 9,000 inmates and is forecasted to increase to about 10,000 inmates by
2025. While this forecast serves as a predictive scenario for the prison population if current
policy and practice continue, there are opportunities that could result in lower prison
populations.
Figure 15: Ending Prison Population since 1925
12000

Forecast

10000

8000

6000

4000

Actual

2000

0

Source: Iowa Department of Corrections

Increases in Parolees
Paroles have been high for the past four fiscal years, reaching and exceeding the levels realized
prior to FY 2007. The ratio of paroles to expirations – a good indicator of release activity –
returned to levels prior to FY 2007. As indicated previously, a major contribution to the stability
of Iowa’s prison population between FY 2003 and FY 2006 was an increase in paroles. An
increase in prison populations cannot be averted without assistance from the Board of Parole
(BOP). The BOP and the DOC use a variety of timely, reliable, and validated tools proven to be
effective in identifying appropriate release candidates.
The BOP and DOC have also recently taken steps to streamline the Iowa Code-required process
of annually reviewing inmates for possible release. Until recently, the BOP has conducted
parole reviews in every institution every other month, a process that could lead to delays in
release when, for example, an inmate would finish required programming shortly after the
Board had just conducted reviews in his or her institution. Recent changes (expanded use of
the ICN as well as utilization of the ICON database) enable the Board to conduct reviews from
any institution at any time, so that the example above would lead to an immediate review. This
20

new process also permits the BOP to consider staff-initiated reviews at any time, also reducing
unnecessary delays.
Response to Drug Offenders
One continued opportunity for change lies in the response to drug offenders. Drug offenders
and drug sentences should continue to be examined to ensure that offenders committed to
prison for drug offenses could not be more effectively managed elsewhere or, perhaps,
committed to prison for shorter periods of time. One step in this regard may be to equalize
powder and “crack” cocaine sentences, one of the recommendations of the Public Safety
Advisory Board (PSAB). While there was disagreement within the PSAB as to how crack and
powder sentences should be equalized, the board agrees that the current disparity in penalties
was unwarranted. A 2011 study overseen by the PSAB also examined the impact of mandatory
minimum sentences for drug offenders, identifying no reduction in recidivism among inmates
serving mandatory minimum drug sentences and suggesting that there are inmates covered by
these sentences who could be safely released in the absence of the mandatory sentence.
Sex Offender Legislation
As noted previously, during the 2005 General Assembly, considerable changes were made in
legislation pertaining to sex offenders. The anticipated impact of these changes (as they
currently exist) is included in the population forecast presented here. While admissions of new
sex offenders to prison have changed little over the past 20 years, changes in policy –
particularly the establishment of the lifetime Special Sentence – have begun to have a
significant impact on Iowa’s prison population. It will be difficult to stem future population
increases without addressing sex offender policy. Without some modifications either to the
length of Special Sentence supervision or to which offenders are subject to lifetime supervision,
sex offenders will constitute an ever-larger proportion of offenders under community
supervision. With community-based corrections already strained due to limited resources, it
will be necessary to monitor the effects of increased workloads.
In 2014, Iowa’s PSAB and Sex Offender Research Council (SORC) jointly recommended the
following change to Iowa’s Special Sentence:
“Imposition of the special sentence would remain as it is today, with the added
provision to give the court the opportunity to review and reduce the special sentence.
The change to current policy will be to allow the court to remove an offender from the
special sentence supervision based on an evidentiary hearing that reviews information
believed to be pertinent to special sentence placement (the nature of the sex offense,
the offender’s institutional behavior, sex offender treatment compliance, court
mandate compliance, victim impact, risk assessment, etc.). This information would then
be utilized by the judge to render a judgment as to whether or not continued special
sentence supervision is appropriate.”10
Both Councils recommend that additional funding should be directed towards early and
effective treatment for sex offenders.
10

Johnson, S. (2014) An Analysis of the Sex Offender Special Sentence in Iowa. The Division of Criminal and
Juvenile Justice Planning.
21

Mandatory Minimum Sentences
A final possibility to controlling future population increase lies with inmates serving 70 percent
sentences, particularly those with 25- and 50-year terms. While there is little disagreement
that the inmates serving these sentences warrant lengthier sentence terms for the purposes of
public protection, offenders are currently imprisoned for a minimum of 17.5 years when, prior
to adoption of (then) 85 percent sentences, these inmates served an average of about seven
years. An analysis by CJJP of released Robbery-2 70% offenders revealed this group to have a
low recidivism rate, by way of either a new felony or violent arrest (one-year, 4.9%, three years
16-17%). 11
In 2015, as a result of this analysis, Iowa’s PSAB offered the following legislative
recommendation:
“As in current law, robbery should remain a forcible felony that requires incarceration.
Continue the current 15% cap on earned time for robbery offenses covered by §902.12.
While this option contributes to larger prison populations, it permits the incapacitation
of some of the prison system’s most dangerous and violent offenders, increasing public
safety.
Establish a mandatory minimum term of seven years for Robbery in the First Degree and
three years for Robbery in the Second Degree. These recommended minimum
sentences are consistent with the average length-of-stay for robbers prior to
establishment of the 70% sentence. They would require imprisonment of robbers for a
period consistent with the seriousness of robbery offenses while allowing the Board of
Parole discretion to consider possible release between expiration of the mandatory
minimum and the maximum 85% term. While allowing for earlier release of lower-risk
inmates, this proposal also would permit lengthy incarceration of those individuals at
high risk to reoffend or those individuals who pose a significant threat to public
safety.”12
This recommendation continued to be endorsed as a priority area for PSAB in their 2016 report
to the Legislature.
Juvenile Offender Legislation
In July 2014, the Iowa Supreme Court decided that “mandatory minimum criminal sentences
violate the Iowa Constitution's ban on cruel and unusual punishment when applied to crimes
committed when the defendant was under the age of 18. This will mean perhaps 100 Iowa
inmates will be eligible to have their prison sentences reviewed by a trial judge, with the
potential for early release in some cases.”13 The extent to which this ruling will influence Iowa’s
prison populations for offenders under 18 will need to be studied over time.

11

https://humanrights.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/media/Violent_Offender_70Pct_Report%5B1%5D.pdf
Johnson, S. (2016) Public Safety Advisory Board Annual Report. The Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice
Planning.
13
The Des Moines Register. 2014. Juvenile Mandatory Minimum Sentences per Iowa Department of Corrections
12

22

APPENDIX I: Prison Population Forecasted Figures
Table 1: Mid-Year Prison Populations and Capacities: Total
Year
ACTUAL
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
FORECAST
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

Total Inmates
June 30th

Increase
(Decrease)

% Change

Total Prison
Capacity

Population as %
of Capacity

8,658
8,807
8,618
8,453
8,602
8,787
8,333
8,078
8,119
8,188

81
149
-189
-165
149
185
-454
-255
41
69

0.9%
1.7%
-2.1%
-1.9%
1.8%
2.1%
-5.2%
-3.1%
0.6%
0.8%

7,240
7,256
7,414
7,414
7,414
7,209
7,209
7,209
7,428
7,322

119.6%
121.4%
116.2%
114.0%
116.0%
121.9%
115.6%
112.1%
109.3%
111.8%

8,408
8,729
9,007
9,347
9,527
9,597
9,645
9,787
9,932
10,058

220
321
278
340
180
70
71
142
145
126

2.7%
3.8%
3.2%
3.8%
1.9%
0.7%
0.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.3%

7,332
7,332
7,332
7,332
7,332
7,332
7,332
7,332
7,332
7,332

114.7%
119.0%
122.8%
127.5%
129.9%
130.9%
131.5%
133.5%
135.5%
137.2%

Source: E-1 Reports and ICON, Iowa Department of Corrections.

23

Table 2: Mid-Year Prison Populations and Capacities: Females
Year
ACTUAL
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
FORECAST
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

# Women June
30th

Increase
(Decrease)

% Change

Capacity

Population as% of
Capacity

718
761
740
669
707
686
682
610
616
676

-36
43
-21
-71
38
-21
-4
-72
6
60

-5.0%
5.6%
-2.8%
-10.6%
5.4%
-3.1%
-0.6%
-11.8%
1.0%
9.7%

573
573
573
573
573
585
585
585
774
778

125.3%
132.8%
129.1%
116.8%
123.4%
117.3%
116.6%
104.3%
79.6%
86.9%

698
725
747
775
791
796
800
812
824
835

22
27
22
28
5
5
4
12
12
11

3.2%
3.9%
3.0%
3.7%
2.1%
0.6%
0.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.3%

778
778
778
778
778
778
778
778
778
778

89.7%
93.2%
96.0%
99.6%
101.7%
102.3%
102.8%
104.4%
105.9%
107.3%

Source: ICON & E-1 Reports

24

Table 3: Mid-Year Prison Populations and Capacities: Males
Year
ACTUAL
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
FORECAST
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

# Men June
30th

Increase
(Decrease)

% Change

Capacity

Population as% of
Capacity

7,940
8,046
7,878
7,784
7,895
8,101
7,651
7,468
7,503
7,512

117
106
-168
-94
111
206
-450
-183
35
9

1.5%
1.3%
-2.1%
-1.2%
1.4%
2.5%
-5.9%
-2.4%
0.5%
0.1%

6,667
6,683
6,841
6,841
6,841
6,624
6,624
6,624
6,498
6,544

119.1%
120.4%
115.2%
113.8%
115.4%
122.3%
115.5%
112.7%
115.5%
114.9%

7,710
8,004
8,260
8,572
8,736
8,801
8,845
8,975
9,108
9,223

198
294
256
312
164
65
44
130
133
115

2.6%
3.8%
3.2%
4.3%
1.9%
0.7%
0.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.3%

6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544

117.8%
122.3%
126.2%
131.0%
133.5%
134.5%
135.2%
137.1%
139.2%
140.9%

Source: ICON & E-1 Reports
Populations exclude sex offender civil commitment unit.

25

APPENDIX II: Prison Admission Populations and Forecasts
Table 4: Prison Admissions by Admission Reason: FY 2006 - FY 2015
Admission Type
New Court Commitments
New/Probation Revocations
NEW ADMISSIONS
Parole Return
Work Release Returns
OWI Facility Returns
Special Sentence Return
Prison Compact
RETURNS
Safe Keeper
Violators
Other Admissions
TOTAL ADMISSIONS

FY2006
2,233
1,609
3,842

FY2007
2,071
1,526
3,597

FY2008
1,951
1,347
3,298

FY2009
1,783
1,189
2,972

FY2010
1,970
1,348
3,318

FY2011
1,951
1,534
3,485

FY2012
2,112
1,508
3,620

FY2013
2,020
1,497
3,517

FY2014
2,048
1,655
3,703

FY2015
1,828
1,567
3,395

%Change
FY2006-FY2015
-22.1%
-2.7
-13.2%

805
480
95
0
3
1,383
516
445
18
6,204

765
465
90
3
2
1,325
411
435
16
5,784

810
380
91
10
3
1,294
466
323
9
5,390

715
317
85
28
7
1,152
1,077
272
9
5,482

657
404
73
51
3
1,188
37
202
6
4,751

692
420
89
68
8
1,277
47
-17
4,826

664
443
91
89
7
1,294
57
-8
4,979

800
472
87
103
3
1,465
48
-4
5,034

896
540
49
106
4
1,595
46
-10
5,354

1,020
597
64
137
7
1,825
47
-0
5,267

21.1%
19.6%
-48.4%
--24.2%%
----17.8%

Other Admissions – Other admission categories included prison admissions which did not fall under a particular admission category.
Note: the rise in safe keeper placements in 2009 was due to placement of Linn County inmates as the result of jail flooding.
Source: Justice Data Warehouse

26

Table 5: New Prison Admission by Offense Type and Subtype

OFFENSE TYPE
Drug
Violent
Property
Public Order
Other
No Charge
TOTAL
OFFENSE SUBTYPE
Alcohol
Arson
Assault
Burglary
Drug Offenses
Flight/Escape
Forgery/Fraud
Kidnapping
Murder/Manslaughter
OWI
Pimping/Prostitution
Robbery
Sex Offenses
Theft
Traffic
Weapons
All Other Offenses
TOTAL NEW ADMITS

FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

FY2009

FY2010

FY2011

FY2012

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

%Change
FY2006-FY2015

1,091
889
1,121
621
114
6
3,842

964
849
1,076
597
110
1
3,597

840
846
966
520
126
0
3,298

722
803
828
507
112
0
2,972

795
920
944
537
121
1
3,318

881
911
993
586
114
0
3,485

1,000
923
1,016
568
113
0
3,620

900
920
1,008
540
149
0
3,517

948
981
1,100
533
140
1
3,703

834
967
941
500
153
0
3,395

-23.6%
8.7%
-16.1%
-19.5%
34.2%
--11.6%

25
26
457
409
1,091
7
276
18
70
317
13
43
258
363
115
66
288
3,842

37
30
428
395
964
16
234
11
79
277
16
44
239
378
98
53
298
3,597

23
31
440
358
840
7
184
22
76
271
12
48
205
355
89
38
299
3,298

29
13
437
320
722
13
132
24
64
283
8
46
182
308
66
37
288
2,972

46
20
474
396
795
8
149
9
80
299
3
71
211
330
77
48
302
3,318

63
24
494
414
881
9
156
9
58
304
8
67
200
336
76
56
330
3,485

68
21
499
448
1,000
9
164
11
77
289
7
50
217
341
72
53
294
3,620

63
27
518
426
900
10
164
6
64
228
7
56
204
343
90
73
338
3,517

56
26
542
402
948
7
197
17
85
229
6
67
201
418
79
86
337
3,703

60
24
551
349
834
3
171
12
68
216
1
69
187
352
64
84
350
3,395

140.0%
-7.7%
20.6%
-14.7%
23.5%
-57.1%
-38.0%
-33.3%
-2.9%
-31.9%
-92.3%
60.5%
-27.5%
-3.0%
-44.3%
27.3%
21.5%

Notes: Figures may differ from previous reports due to recent corrections made in historical databases. Source: Justice Data Warehouse, compiled by CJJP.
Source: Justice Data Warehouse

27

Table 6: New Admissions by Offense Class
Offense Type
OFFENSE CLASS
A Felony
B Felony
C Felony
D Felony
Other Felony
Aggravated Misd.
Serious Misd.
Other Misd.
Blank
TOTAL NEW ADMITS

FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

FY2009

FY2010

FY2011

FY2012

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

%Change
FY2006 – FY2015

19
181
999
1708
156
748
30
1
0
3,842

16
203
947
1530
143
726
28
4
0
3,597

19
183
852
1417
141
663
22
1
0
3,298

17
165
701
1299
132
638
20
0
0
2,972

17
196
812
1448
161
655
29
0
0
3,318

14
189
825
1447
160
823
27
0
0
3,485

22
171
894
1501
183
823
26
0
0
3,620

13
168
829
1507
199
775
25
1
0
3,517

22
179
913
1551
182
825
28
1
2
3,703

25
155
813
1433
176
766
25
1
1
3,395

31.6%
-14.4%
-18.6%
-16.1%
12.8%
2.4%
16.7%
---11.6%

Source: Justice Data Warehouse

28

Table 7: Prison Admissions: Actual and Projected
New Admissions:
#
% Change

Readmissions:
#
% Change

ACTUAL
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015

4,020
3,842
3,597
3,298
2,972
3,318
3,485
3,620
3,517
3,703
3,395

--4.6%
-6.8%
-9.1%
-11.0%
10.4%
4.8%
3.7%
-2.9%
5.0%
-9.1%

1,144
1,383
1,325
1,294
1,152
1,188
1,277
1,294
1,465
1,595
1,825

-17.3%
-4.4%
-2.4%
-12.3%
3.0%
7.0%
1.3%
11.7%
8.2%
12.6%

FORECAST
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
FY2019
FY2020
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025

3,579
3,603
3,726
3,722
3,678
3,673
3,742
3,705
3,888
3,899

5.1%
0.7%
3.3%
-0.1%
-1.2%
-0.1%
1.8%
-1.0%
4.7%
0.3%

1,630
1,733
1,842
1,949
2,029
2,108
2,176
2,240
2,313
2,401

-11.9%
5.9%
5.9%
5.5%
3.9%
3.7%
3.1%
2.9%
3.1%
3.7%

Note: For an explanation of forecast categories, please refer to the previous section,
Forecasting the Prison Population.
Source: Justice Data Warehouse

29

APPENDIX III: Prison Release Populations
Table 8: Prison Releases by Release Reason: FY 2006-FY 2015

To Parole
To Work Release
To OWI Facility
Expiration of Sentence
Other Violator
Escapes
Other Releases*
TOTAL RELEASES
Ratio paroles: expirations

FY2006
2,307
1,304
209
1,081
495
5
831
6,232
2.1

FY2007
1,758
1,271
198
1,202
477
1
850
5,757
1.5

FY2008
1,645
1,283
207
1,359
382
643
5,519
1.2

FY2009
1,405
1,095
194
1,446
278
1
1,872
6,291
1.0

FY2010
1,379
1,261
190
1,323
274
266
4,693
1.0

FY2011
1,452
1,222
192
1,445
40
464
4,815
1.0

FY2012
2,039
1,248
157
1,582
1
616
5,643
1.3

FY2013
2,501
959
157
1,201
1
739
5,558
2.1

FY2014
2,312
1,192
131
1,047
620
5,302
2.2

FY2015
2,007
1,332
125
1,045
646
5,155
1.9

% Change
FY2006-FY2015
-13.0%
2.1%
-40.2%
-3.3%
-22.3%
--

*Other releases include those offenders released via shock probation.
Source: Justice Data Warehouse

30

APPENDIX IV: LOS for Release Cohorts
Table 9: Inmate Mean Length of Stay for Offenders Exiting Prison (In Months), by Fiscal Year

NEW ADMISSIONS
*No Parole - Murder-2nd
*No Parole - Other Class B
*No Parole - Class C
*No Parole - Habitual Class C
B Felony Persons
B Felony Non-Persons
B Felony Sex
C Felony Persons
C Felony Non-Persons
C Felony Sex
D Felony Persons
D Felony Non-Persons
D Felony Sex
Other Felony
Other Felony Non-Persons
Other Felony Persons
Other Felony Sex
Agg Misd Persons
Agg Misd Non-Persons
Agg Misd Sex
Serious Misd
Drunk Driving Initial Stay
TOTAL AVERAGE

FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

FY2009

FY2010

FY2011

FY2012

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
98.1
31.0
125.6
36.0
20.0
53.0
19.0
12.0
26.0
30.2
30.6
32.0
23.1
9.0
7.0
9.0
5.0
5.0
18.8

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
108.1
34.2
116.3
44.9
19.8
56.8
20.1
12.4
31.1
38.5
35.1
134.7
23.1
9.3
7.5
9.4
6.6
6.0
19.8

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
108.9
40.3
124.5
46.2
21.3
53.9
19.3
13.3
31.5
46.9
38.8
444.8
17.7
9.9
7.6
14.2
6.4
5.7
21.2

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
86.1
36.5
158.2
44.5
21.8
57.5
21.0
14.1
35.2
44.9
41.8
430.9
39.8
10.5
8.0
12.5
12.4
6.6
22.4

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
109.4
42.8
138.1
47.6
24.7
59.7
22.0
14.6
31.5
39.6
39.1
80.7
NA
9.5
7.9
11.5
6.4
5.6
23.5

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
123.5
38.6
152.3
43.7
23.3
64.0
20.6
14.5
36.8
39.7
36.4
NA
409.8
9.0
6.9
13.5
6.9
8.0
21.5

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
131.8
39.0
174.6
47.1
23.4
66.7
21.2
13.5
31.7
43.8
41.2
247.1
109.3
8.7
7.0
12.9
7.3
7.5
23.2

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
108.0
40.5
157.3
38.0
21.8
63.5
16.9
12.2
33.0
38.2
35.2
314.7
NA
8.6
7.1
11.9
6.2
6.1
21.5

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
101.6
34.7
172.8
45.0
18.7
66.5
17.0
11.2
32.0
40.6
36.3
489.8
NA
8.3
6.6
12.9
6.9
3.9
19.5

510.0
184.0
82.5
126.0
106.0
36.9
209.1
37.5
17.6
63.4
15.3
11.5
24.1
38.3
36.1
471.2
45.1
8.4
7.1
8.6
10.6
5.2
20.2

%
Change
FY2006
–
FY2015
----8.0%
19.0%
66.5%
4.2%
-12.0%
19.6%
-19.5%
-4.2%
-7.3%
26.8%
18.0%
95.2%
-6.6%
1.4%
-4.4%
110.0%
4.0%
--

Other felony groups tend to include sentencing enhancements.
Source: Justice Data Warehouse
31

Table 10: Inmate Mean Length Of Stay for Offenders Exiting Prison (In Months), by Fiscal Year Cont…

READMISSIONS
B Felony
C Felony
D Felony
Other Felony
Drunk Driving Returns
Special Sentence Returns
All Misdemeanors
TOTAL AVERAGE

FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

FY2009

FY2010

FY2011

FY2012

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

18.0
12.0
9.0
13.0
9.0
5.0
9.0

22.1
11.8
8.5
15.8
9.1
5.3
9.6

21.3
12.9
9.9
25.8
10.7
6.5
11.3

31.1
16.0
9.9
23.5
9.9
5.8
11.7

30.3
15.4
10.6
26.3
10.0
6.4
13.6

27.8
17.6
11.6
25.4
12.4
5.0
13.6

31.2
16.2
10.3
26.0
10.3
9.0
13.9

26.2
13.7
8.8
20.2
8.3
5.9
11.7

22.7
12.5
8.5
7.4
7.3
5.8
9.9

12.3
10.0
7.7
12.8
6.6
6.5
10.7
10.3

% Change
FY2006FY2015
-31.7%
-16.7%
-14.4%
-1.5%
-26.7%
114.0%
--

Source: Justice Data Warehouse
Notes: “No parole” groups marked with an asterisk (*) reflect sentences under §902.12 or §901A, effective for persons committing certain violent crimes after July 1,
1996. Time served from 2005-2014 denotes expected length of stay unless there have been actual releases in those categories.
For further explanation of forecasting categories and time served calculations, please refer to the section; Forward – Iowa’s Forecasting Model.

32

APPENDIX V: Probation Populations and Revocations Information

FY 2006
FY 2007
FY 2008
FY 2009
FY 2010
FY 2011
FY 2012
FY 2013
FY 2014
FY 2015

Table 11: Percentage of Probation Population Revoked, FY 2005-FY 2014
Probation Population Probation Revocations
% Revoked
Rate of Revocation
22,236
1,609
7.2%
14:1
21,631
1,526
7.0%
14:1
22,334
1,347
6.0%
17:1
22,433
1,189
5.3%
19:1
21,329
1,348
6.3%
16:1
21,463
1,534
7.1%
14:1
21,698
1,508
6.9%
14:1
21,597
1,497
6.9%
14:1
21,739
1,655
7.6%
13:1
21,947
1,567
7.1%
14:1

Source: Justice Data Warehouse

33

APPENDIX VI. Prison Population Demographics
Table 12: Prison Population Demographic Trends

RACE
Caucasian
African-American
Asian/Pacific Islander
Native American/Alaskan
Other
Hispanic
Unknown
SEX
Male
Female
AGE
17 and Under
18-20
21-25
26-30
31-35
36-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81+
Unknown
TOTAL

% Change
FY2006FY2015

FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

FY2009

FY2010

FY2011

FY2012

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

67.9%
23.3%
0.9%
1.5%
0.3%
6.1%
0.0%

67.1%
24.3%
0.8%
1.5%
0.1%
6.2%
0.0%

65.7%
25.2%
0.8%
1.5%
0.0%
6.6%
0.3%

64.8%
25.7%
0.9%
1.8%
0.0%
6.8%
0.0%

65.0%
25.4%
0.9%
1.8%
0.0%
6.8%
0.1%

64.7%
25.9%
0.8%
1.9%
0.0%
6.7%
0.0%

64.5%
26.2%
0.9%
1.8%
0.0%
6.6%
0.0%

64.6%
26.1%
0.9%
1.7%
0.0%
6.7%
0.0%

64.7%
26.0%
0.8%
1.8%
0.0%
6.8%
0.0%

65.3%
25.5%
0.8%
1.7%
0.0%
6.7%
0.0%

-2.6%
2.2%
-0.1%
0.2%
-0.3%
0.6%
0.0%

91.8%
8.2%

91.4%
8.6%

91.3%
8.7%

92.1%
7.9%

91.8%
8.2%

92.2%
7.8%

91.8%
8.2%

92.4%
7.6%

92.4%
7.6%

91.7%
8.3%

-0.1%
0.1%

0.2%
5.0%
18.8%
17.1%
14.0%
14.3%
21.6%
6.6%
1.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.3%
8,658

0.2%
4.7%
18.1%
18.0%
13.3%
14.1%
22.1%
7.4%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
8,807

0.2%
4.8%
17.5%
17.4%
14.2%
13.1%
21.8%
7.9%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
0.6%
8,618

0.2%
5.0%
17.4%
17.7%
13.9%
12.4%
21.8%
8.8%
2.3%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
8,453

0.2%
5.4%
17.3%
17.1%
14.0%
12.3%
21.3%
9.3%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
0.2%
8,602

0.2%
5.1%
17.6%
16.8%
14.8%
11.7%
21.1%
9.7%
2.5%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
8,787

0.1%
4.9%
17.3%
16.6%
14.8%
11.2%
20.8%
10.7%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
8,333

0.2%
4.7%
18.2%
16.2%
14.9%
11.0%
20.4%
10.2%
3.3%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
8,078

0.1%
4.3%
17.6%
16.4%
15.9%
11.1%
19.4%
10.8%
3.4%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
8,119

0.0%
2.7%
16.4%
17.4%
15.4%
12.6%
18.6%
12.1%
3.5%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
8,188

-0.2%
-2.3%
-2.4%
0.3%
1.4%
1.7%
-3.0%
5.5%
1.8%
0.8%
-0.1%
-0.3%
--

Source: Justice Data Warehouse and the Iowa Department of Corrections
th
Prison population demographic data reflect offender information on June 30 of each fiscal year.

34