U.S. PRISON DECLINE: INSUFFICIENT TO UNDO MASS INCARCERATION

U.S. Prison Decline: Insufficient
to Undo Mass Incarceration
By yearend 2018, the U.S. prison population reached
1.4 million people, declining by 9% since reaching its
peak level in 2009. This follows a nearly 700% growth
in the prison population between 1972 and 2009. This
research brief reveals significant variation across states
in decarceration and highlights the overall modest pace
of reforms relative to the massive imprisonment buildup.
This analysis is based on the most recent data from
the Bureau of Justice Statistics on people serving
sentences greater than one year. Since the coronavirus
pandemic in 2020, a number of states and the federal
system have made additional, albeit modest, reductions
in their prison populations. This analysis underscores
the need to address excessively high levels of imprisonment amidst a public health crisis.

SIGNIFICANT VARIATION ACROSS STATES
All but six states have reduced their prison populations
since reaching their peak levels. For twenty-five states,
the reduction in imprisonment levels was less than
10%. The federal prison population was downsized by
17% relative to its peak level in 2011.1 Seven states
lead the nation, having decarcerated by over 30% since
reaching their peak imprisonment levels: New Jersey,
Alaska, Connecticut, New York, Alabama, Rhode Island,
and Vermont.2 These prison population reductions are
the result of a mix of changes in policy and practice
designed to reduce prison admissions and lengths of
stay. But six states had their highest ever prison populations in 2018: Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin,
Kansas, and Oregon.

Figure 1: U.S. Prison Population by Conviction Offense, 1980-2017
800,000
700,000

Violent: 2% reduction
since 2009

600,000
500,000
400,000

Drug: 29% reduction
since 2007

300,000
Property: 18% reduction
since 2007

200,000
100,000
0
1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

2017

Note: Reductions are from year when the prison population for that offense category reached its peak. Based on sentenced prison population in state
and federal systems. Chart omits public order and other/unspecified offenses, for which an additional 231,000 people were imprisoned in 2017, down
1% since 2014.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics Prisoners Series (1994-2018)

The Sentencing Project • 1705 DeSales Street NW, 8th Floor • Washington, D.C. 20036 • sentencingproject.org

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U.S. PRISON DECLINE: INSUFFICIENT TO UNDO MASS INCARCERATION

Figure 2. U.S. Prison Population Trends Through 2018: Decreases Since Peak Year, Increases Since 2013
-39%
-38%
-37%
-36%
-35%
-34%
-32%
-27%
-26%
-25%
-23%
-20%
-19%
-19%
-18%
-17%
-14%
-13%
-13%
-10%
-9%
-9%
-9%
-7%
-7%
-7%
-7%
-6%
-6%
-5%
-5%
-5%
-5%
-5%
-5%
-5%
-4%
-4%
-3%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
0%

Note: See Table 1 for additional details.
*This state’s trend may not be accurate due to data incomparability across years.
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics Prisoners Series (1999-2018)

NJ
AK
CT
NY
AL
RI
VT
CA
HI
MI
MA
SC
LA
IL
MD
Federal
MS
ME
CO
IN
TN
U.S. Total
PA
OK
MO
FL
MN
NH*
UT*
ND
WV
NC
DE
ID
VA
GA
TX
NM*
OH
AR
MT*
AZ
WA
NV
KY
SD
1%
OR*
KS
WI
IA
NE
WY

5%
7%
9%
10%
10%

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U.S. PRISON DECLINE: INSUFFICIENT TO UNDO MASS INCARCERATION

MODEST PACE OF REFORMS
Although 44 states and the federal system have reduced
their prison populations since reaching peak levels, the
pace of reform has been slow to reverse nearly four
decades of aggressive annual imprisonment growth.
At the pace of decarceration since 2009, averaging 1%
annually, it will take 65 years— until 2085—to cut the
U.S. prison population in half. Clearly, waiting over six
decades to substantively alter a system that is out of
step with the world and is racially biased is unacceptable.

NEXT STEPS
The United States has made only modest progress in
ending mass incarceration despite a dramatic decline
in crime rates. Reported crime rates have plummeted
to half of their 1990s levels—as they have in many other
countries that did not increase imprisonment levels.3
Expediting the end of mass incarceration will require
accelerating the end of the Drug War and scaling back
sentences for all crimes, including violent offenses for
which half of people in prison are serving time.4

1,750,000

Past reforms have helped to reduce the number of
people imprisoned for a drug offense by 29% between
peak year 2007 and 2017. The number of people imprisoned for a property offense has declined by 18%
between peak year 2007 and 2017. But for the half of
the prison population imprisoned for a violent crime—
which ranges from certain burglaries, robbery, and
assault to rape and murder—reforms remain the exception. Overall, the number of people imprisoned for
a violent offense has only declined by 2% between peak
year 2009 and 2017, despite substantial declines in
violence since the mid-1990s.
The reluctance to scale back excessive sentences for
this population is at odds with evidence that long sentences incapacitate older people who pose little public
safety threat, produce limited deterrent effect, and
detract from more effective investments in public
safety. Expediting the end of mass incarceration will
require making a meaningful dent into the number of
people imprisoned for violence as well as intensifying
sentencing reforms for non-violent crimes.

Figure 3. Historical and Projected U.S. Federal and State Prison Population,
Based on 2009-2018 Rate of Decline

1,500,000

1,250,000
1,000,000

750,000
500,000

250,000
0
1925

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2075 2085

Source of historical figures: Bureau of Justice Statistics (1982) “Prisoners 1925-81”; Bureau of Justice Statistics Corrections Statistical
Analysis Tool; Carson, E. A. (2020). Prisoners in 2018. Bureau of Justice Statistics. Available at: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p18.pdf

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U.S. PRISON DECLINE: INSUFFICIENT TO UNDO MASS INCARCERATION

Table 1: U.S. Prison Population Trends Through 2018: Decreases Since Peak Year, Increases Since 2013
Jurisdiction

Peak to 2018

Peak Year

New Jersey

-38.5%

1999

Alaska

-37.8%

2006

Connecticut

-37.4%

2007

New York

-36.1%

1999

Alabama1

-34.9%

2012

Rhode Island

-33.7%

2008

Vermont

-32.0%

2009

California

-26.7%

2006

Hawaii

-26.2%

2005

Michigan

-24.8%

2006

Massachusetts

-23.4%

2011

South Carolina

-20.3%

2009

Louisiana

-19.4%

2012

Illinois

-19.1%

2012

Maryland

-17.7%

2007

Federal

-16.9%

2011

Mississippi

-13.9%

2008

Maine

-13.4%

2007

Colorado

-13.0%

2008

Indiana

-10.2%

2013

Tennessee

-9.2%

2017

U.S. total

-9.0%

2009

Pennsylvania

-8.6%

2011

Oklahoma

-7.3%

2016

Missouri

-6.8%

2017

Florida

-6.5%

2010

Minnesota

-6.5%

2015

New Hampshire*

-6.3%

2007

Utah*

-6.1%

2013

North Dakota

-5.4%

2015

West Virginia

-5.4%

2016

North Carolina

-5.3%

2014

Delaware

-5.1%

2007

Idaho

-4.6%

2013

Virginia

-4.5%

2015

Georgia

-4.5%

2009

Texas

-3.7%

2010

New Mexico*

-3.5%

2017

Ohio

-3.4%

2015

Arkansas

-1.3%

2017

Montana*

-1.3%

2016

Arizona

-1.3%

2015

Washington

-0.7%

2017

Nevada

-0.6%

2017

Kentucky

-0.5%

2017

South Dakota

-0.4%

2017

2013 to 2018
0.5%

Peak Year
2018

Kansas

4.7%

2018

Wisconsin

7.1%

2018

Iowa

8.6%

2018

Nebraska

9.8%

2018

Wyoming

10.1%

2018

1

Jurisdiction
Oregon*

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics Prisoners Series
(1999-2018)
*This state’s trend may not be accurate due to data
incomparability across years.

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U.S. PRISON DECLINE: INSUFFICIENT TO UNDO MASS INCARCERATION

NOTES
1.

This figure is based on the number of people serving sentences longer than one year. The Bureau of Prisons reports that the
total population under its jurisdiction decreased by 22% between peak year 2013 and April 30, 2020.

2.

Alaska and Alabama are poised to reverse some of this progress. Prompted by its governor, in 2019 Alaska’s state legislature repealed several aspects of a major criminal justice overhaul, Senate Bill 91. Alabama’s prison population increased by
6% between September 2018 and January 2020, and recent changes in the state’s parole policies and practices are poised
to further undo the state’s decarceration.

3.

Federal Bureau of Investigations Uniform Crime Reporting Program. Doob, A., & Webster, C. (2006). Countering punitiveness: Understanding stability in Canada’s imprisonment. Law & Society Review, 40(2), 325–367; Tseloni, A., Mailley, J., &
Garrell, G. (2010). Exploring the international decline in crime rates. European Journal of Criminology, 7(5), 375–394

4.

Carson, E. A. (2020). Prisoners in 2018. Bureau of Justice Statistics. Available at: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p18.
pdf

This briefing paper was written by Nazgol Ghandnoosh,
Senior Research Analyst at The Sentencing Project.
Published May 2020.
1705 DeSales Street NW, 8th Floor
Washington, D.C. 20036
sentencingproject.org

The Sentencing Project works for a fair and effective U.S. justice
system by promoting reforms in sentencing policy, addressing
unjust racial disparities and practices, and advocating for
alternatives to incarceration.

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