Utah State Prison Relocation Feasibility Eval 2005
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Evaluation of the Feasibility of Relocating the Utah State Prison Prepared for Division of Facilities Construction and Management Department of Administrative Services Department of Corrections State of Utah October 2005 Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants, Inc. Carter Goble Lee LECG DMJM Prison Relocation Feasibility Study . State of Utah 1 Evaluation of the Feasibility of Relocating the Utah State Prison Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants, Inc. Carter Goble Associates, Inc. LECG DMJM October 2005 INTRODUCTION Abstract: The estimated cost to relocate the prison functions from the Draper site and construct comparable prison facilities at another location exceeds the anticipated proceeds from the sale of the real estate by an estimated $372 million. This conclusion is based on: • market research analysis of alternative uses of the prison site; • an appraisal of future land-use scenarios; • consideration of full or partial relocation options; and • cost estimates for construction, operation and transition related to each scenario. This study was commissioned by the State of Utah to determine the feasibility of relocating the main Utah State Prison from its present location to an alternative site within the state. The prison is located in Draper City at the southern end of Salt Lake County, which is the heart of the Wasatch Front – the most urbanized area of the state. Over the past several decades, growth in the Draper area – and all of southern Salt Lake County – has resulted in urban encroachment around the prison. There has been a great deal of speculation regarding the value of the prison property if put into alternative uses and whether this would be sufficient to offset the costs of building a new facility on a different site. The test of feasibility is a product of the value of the real estate that could be sold after relocation, the impact of relocation on local communities and the estimated cost of rebuilding equivalent facilities. These factors provide the framework for the following report and serve as the basis for the report’s findings. This report summarizes extensive research and analysis performed during third quarter 2005 by a team of real estate, construction and prison planning experts. The complete research and analysis are in Appendices A through E. The reader is referred to the appendices for more detail regarding any specific area of analysis discussed in this document. Scenarios Evaluated Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants, Inc., is a Salt Lake City based economic, planning and real estate advisory services firm. Carter Goble Associates, Inc., provides planning services for correctional facilities worldwide. LECG is an international economics and finance consultancy firm dealing in litigation support. LECG recently acquired J. Phillip Cook and Associates, a Salt Lake City appraisal firm. DMJM is an international construction and engineering firm. DMJM is currently designing the expansion of the Gunnison Prison for the Utah State Department of Corrections. The report addresses the feasibility of relocating all prison functions from Draper to another location in the state. It also addresses the feasibility of relocating a portion of the prison functions to another location in the state. In the case of a full relocation, a complete, new stateof-the-art facility would be constructed and all prison functions relocated. The scenario for a full relocation assumes moving the prison at its present capacity of approximately 4,000 beds. This allows a clear “apples to apples” comparison. (It would be more economical to assume relocation of the prison with approximately 4,000 beds and the potential to expand to 6,000 beds in the future. This scenario is fully outlined and priced in Appendix A.) Following construction and relocation, the current buildings, structures and improvements would be demolished and the site prepared for marketing as a development site. In the case of a partial relocation, the male medium-security and the minimum-security pre-release functions would be moved to a new facility. Following relocation, the present medium-security facility would Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 2 be remodeled to accommodate the women’s facility, the substance-abuse-intensive-treatment and the forensic-mental-health in-patient diagnostics, treatment and management facilities. Following the remodel and relocation, the now-empty facilities on the northeast side of the site would be demolished, leaving a reduced prison operation on the southwest. The 483 empty acres would then be prepared for sale as a development site. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The analysis is summarized in Tables EX-1 and EX-2. These include all elements of the study and are grouped by potential revenues/benefits and estimated costs related to relocation. All estimates are based on 2005 present-value dollars and are based on the consultant’s experience with Utah construction costs, real estate market values and trends and the prison planning and construction industry. The information in the tables indicates that the substantial costs of relocating the Draper facilities — about $461 million — are not recoverable through the sale of the roughly 670 acres of land that the State of Utah could dispose of upon the prison’s closure and relocation. The additional benefits of returning the land to private development and “back onto the tax Carter Goble Associates LECG DMJM rolls” will not be sufficient to close the gap. Appraised value ranges from $51 million to $93 million. This range exists because the consultant team approached the appraisal question from a number of perspectives. First, because the owner is a public agency with a very low cost of capital, the team has taken two approaches: the market value essentially assumes the state sells to a private developer and uses costs of capital available to the private sector; the investment value assumes the public sector (the state) is the investor and uses the state’s more beneficial cost of capital. In addition, two different development scenarios have been used. The first assumes that the land is sold as residential land which is its current highest and best use. The second takes a longer-term view that is more reflective of the desires of Draper City for a mixed-use employment center on the site. Finally, the team was asked to review the potential of moving only a portion of the Draper prison functions to another location, selling the excess real estate and thereby maintaining some operations at Draper while realizing the benefits of releasing certain areas of the Draper campus for private use. This is referred to in the Tables as the “Partial Relocation” option. Table EX-1: Executive Summary Feasibility Summary – Full Relocation Highest and Best Use Market Appraised Value Plus Value of Water Shares Plus Benefit to Draper Subtotal Mixed Use Investment Market Investment $72,000,000 $93,000,000 $51,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $77,000,000 $1,800,000 $13,600,000 $13,600,000 $13,600,000 $13,600,000 $87,400,000 $108,400,000 $66,400,000 $92,400,000 $421,800,000 $421,800,000 $421,800,000 $421,800,000 $6,600,000 $6,600,000 $6,600,000 $6,600,000 $900,000 $900,000 $900,000 $900,000 $10,700,000 $10,700,000 $10,700,000 $10,700,000 $330,000 $330,000 $330,000 $330,000 $11,200,000 $11,200,000 $11,200,000 $11,200,000 $2,000,000 $7,500,000 $2,000,000 $7,500,000 $2,000,000 $7,500,000 $2,000,000 $7,500,000 Costs Construction Demolition Transition Operating Transportation Staff Relocation Recruitment/Training Site Acquisition Repayment of ESCO Debt Cost Subtotal Net (Cost) Gain to State $461,030,000 $461,030,000 $461,030,000 $461,030,000 ($373,630,000) ($352,630,000) ($394,630,000) ($368,630,000) ($372,000,000) Average (Cost) Gain to State (rounded) Note: Moderate cost estimates from the ranges provided in Appendix E were used to minimize the number of iterations of this summary. The costs could vary from $5 million less to $54 million more than the "moderate" estimate. In the full report, the site and operating costs vary by site, but averages are used in this executive summary Public Review Draft Prison Relocation Feasibility Study . State of Utah 3 Under none of the approaches or the full or partial relocation options does the proposal generate sufficient revenues to cover the costs of moving all or a portion of the prison functions. The study also evaluates the fiscal impacts to Draper City of having the full or partial prison property returned to private use. Under the mixed-use development scenario, the city would realize nearly $1 million annually (after the project was fully built out) in net tax revenues if the prison were totally relocated. Under the partial relocation option, Draper is projected to receive about $245,000 in annual net revenues. Should the state decide to move the prison, a preliminary evaluation of alternative sites identified areas in Box Elder, Juab and Tooele Counties that would provide reasonable alternatives for a full replacement of the Draper facilities. Partial relocation of prison functions could be reasonably accommodated in areas of Iron and Carbon Counties. The full-relocation sites could also be considered. These areas would require additional study. There are additional costs related to the relocation of the prison that have been identified in the analysis. New facility designs can have the potential to provide staffing efficiencies over older facility designs that result in operating cost savings. The consultants examined this potential, but found that significant staff reductions are not likely as the UDOC staffing at the Draper complex is extremely efficient as is. Other operational costs such as transportation costs, staff recruitment and training, staff relocation and transition costs are addressed in detail in the study. Expenses related to retirement of debt for the energy system have been taken into account. Costs for replacement of unrelated facilities (Surplus Property, Forestry/Fire and Juvenile Justice Services) have not been provided for in the analysis. While the value of the prison property does not support full or partial relocation of the Draper prison functions, the unused portion should not be left idle or simply sold as surplus property. The remaining property is a valuable asset of the state that the consultants recommend be the subject of a strategic planning effort to map its long-term use. This analysis has determined that Department of Corrections facility requirements on the Draper site including future growth will likely never need more than about 300 to 350 of the roughly 670 acres, but these needs will require further refinement now that the feasibility of relocation of the prison has been addressed. The future Department of Corrections needs and remaining land should be jointly planned for long-term state use – for state facilities or other uses such as a technology center as envisioned in the Governor’s economic development planning. Table EX-2: Feasibility Summary – Partial Relocation/Mixed-Use Scenario Investment Value Appraised Value Plus Benefit to Draper (20-year NPV) Subtotal Market Value $49,000,000 $34,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $52,500,000 $37,500,000 $128,000,000 $128,000,000 $1,700,000 $1,700,000 $730,000 $730,000 $100,000 $100,000 $4,700,000 $4,700,000 $680,000 $680,000 Costs Construction Demolition Transition Operating Staff Relocation Recruitment/Training Site Acquisition Cost Subtotal $135,910,000 $135,910,000 Net (Cost) Gain to State ($83,410,000) ($98,410,000) ($91,000,000) Average (Cost) Gain to State (rounded) Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 4 LECG DMJM Table of Contents Figure 1: Aerial view of Draper facility Draper Prison Site Bangerter Hwy 200 W. Carter Goble Associates Section 1: Major Elements of Feasibility — Capital Cost, Land and Economic Benefits…………….……………….....page 4 Section 2:Communities Recommended for Consideration…………………..page 15 I-15 Legend 13800 S. Current Prison Property Boundaries Section 3: Transition, Operating and Site Acquisition Costs……….….page 18 North Point Section 4: Other Issues, Findings and Conclusions…………………….......page 21 South Point ° 14600 S. Miles 0 0.125 0.25 0.5 Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants, Inc. SECTION 1: MAJOR ELEMENTS OF FEASIBILITY — CAPITAL COST, LAND AND ECONOMIC BENEFITS ORGANIZATION OF REPORT CONSTRUCTION COSTS OF RELOCATION This report is divided into four sections. The first sets forth the major elements of the evaluation of feasibility: the costs of building a new prison, the appraised value of the land that could be sold and the anticipated benefits to Draper City of having the land returned to private use. Also included in this section is the market and planning research that was used to inform the appraisal process. Construction of the Draper facility began in 1948. Many of the facilities have been constructed over the intervening years — several in the 1980s. It now contains 1,093,893 square feet of special-purpose building improvements and various site improvements including asphalt, concrete, landscaping, lighting, fencing and security. The estimated capital costs for constructing and equipping a replacement of the Draper prison are substantial. The second section evaluates potential prison sites for full or partial relocation options. Potential sites are considered on the basis of existing community resources, available infrastructure, suitability of available land, and community impacts. This portion of the report is concluded with an estimate of potential impacts to communities that may host a prison in the future. All estimates in this analysis are based on 2005 presentvalue dollars and are based on the consultant’s experience with Utah construction costs as well as recent, comparable prison construction projects elsewhere in the U.S. mainland. Operational and site costs associated with relocation of prison functions in full or in part are discussed in the third section of the study. Table 1: Construction Cost - Full Relocation Moderate Low $421,800,000 $416,800,000 Final findings and conclusions summarize the principle issues outlined in each of the major sections of the report and provide an evaluation of feasibility. High $475,000,000 Cost Level Carter Goble Associates, Inc. Public Review Draft Total Cost ($2005$) Prison Relocation Feasibility Study . State of Utah 5 In order to estimate the probable size and cost magnitude of constructing a “New Draper Complex,” a computation of the August 2005 actual total bed capacity of all Draper facilities by physical security level, gender and custody/classification assignments was made from data provided by the Utah Department of Corrections (“UDOC”). Additionally the Adult Corrections Needs Assessment completed by Carter Goble Associates (“CGA”) in 1995 was also reviewed since that study conducted a more in-depth assessment of the capacity ratings by American Corrections Association standards and conditions of each UDOC facility. Up-to-date existing building space gross square footage for Draper was also provided by the UDOC for all buildings at the complex. Table 2 provides a listing of the facilities currently located at Draper. The costing model assumes seven new correctional facilities, plus a number of centralized support functions or services (see Table 3). These facilities would be collocated inside a single-perimeter security system similar to the existing Draper complex. While the total number of beds to be replaced remains 3,968, there are some variations in the distribution of beds for the proposed replacement facilities. These variations result from standard corrections planning and population management related to the need for special management, infirmary and mental health inpatient beds. Table 2: Total Beds to Replace by Facility, Location and FACILITY AND CLASSIFICATION UDOC 2005 TOTAL BEDS Wasatch – Medium/Diagnostic/Infirmary – South Pt. 900 Uinta – Maximum/Special Management – South Pt. 794 Oquirrh – Medium/Minimum – South Pt. 828 Timpanogos – Female All-Custody – North Pt. (143 males temporary) 569 Olympus – Forensic Mental Health – North Pt. 177 Promontory – Med/Min Substance Abuse THC – North Pt. 400 Lone Peak – Minimum Work Release/Re-entry – North Pt. 300 Complex Total Source: UDOC 3,968 Table 3: New Prison Facilities Male Maximum Security Unit 672 Central Clinic and Infirmary 48 Male Medium and Intake Reception/Orientation Unit 936 Male Medium Security Unit 870 Forensic Mental Health Unit 212 Women’s All-custody Unit 426 Male Minimum/Medium Substance Abuse Unit 402 Male Minimum Work Release/Re-entry Unit 402 Total 3,968 New Central Support Facilities Complex Administration & Visit Center Central Kitchen Industries Center Source: Carter Goble and Associates, Inc. The cost estimates are derived from computations using size and component-cost estimators and the following approach: • define each facility by general mission/function; • assign bed counts by custody and security type for housing; • define centralized-support services and functions to serve all facilities; • apply building gross square footage per bed esti- mators applicable to each housing type, each facility’s internal support core spaces and the proposed centralized support services and functions to derive a total facility size; • apply construction cost per square foot estimators for 2005 present values; and • add project/soft costs estimators to derive a total construction cost estimate. Since this analysis is being done at a limited macro level without the benefit of any architectural space programming or preliminary design development for a specific site, the estimates must be considered preliminary and “likely order of magnitude” in nature rather than precise. Consequently, a series of estimates were developed to provide a high, medium and low range of estimates. The complete analysis, methodology and data used to develop the cost estimates are included as Appendix A. Public Review Draft 6 Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants For those readers not familiar with the common size requirements of contemporary prisons Appendix A includes a summary of 20 different exemplary prisons by type and size with square footage per bed and whether or not expansion capacity was built during the initial construction. The estimate is for construction-related costs only and does not represent what might be the State’s actual future cost. There will be additional costs such as future years’ construction-cost inflation (which have been very high in recent years), costs related to site-specific conditions and the possibility of extraordinary environmental-conditions mitigation. Such costs can only be accurately estimated with detailed investigations of a specific site and the development of a schematic design for that site. It would be more practical to assume relocation of the prison with approximately 4,000 beds and the potential to expand to 6,000 beds in the future because of economies of scale related to construction of the core facilities (including such structures as the kitchen and the industry building). This scenario is outlined and priced in Appendix A. Partial Relocation Costs Under a partial relocation scenario, a new 1,052 bed medium security facility and a 402 bed prerelease facility would be built allowing the current North Point functions to move to the vacated space. The Draper South Point facility would be remodeled for 1,052 beds for the forensic-mentalhealth unit, women’s unit and substance-abusetherapeutic community. The remaining existing beds would not require additional investment above planned expenditures. Low, high and moderate costs were developed to construct new facilities at another location. UDOC proposes a relatively limited remodel at the South Point facility to accommodate the North Point Table 4: Construction Cost—Partial Relocation Cost Level Total Cost ($2005$) Moderate $128,000,000 Low High $119,100,000 $131,500,000 Carter Goble Associates, Inc. Carter Goble Associates LECG DMJM functions. The North Point facility would then be demolished and prepared as a development site. APPRAISED VALUE OF PRISON SITE Appraising the prison site is more complicated than a traditional property appraisal. First, in the absence of existing public policy direction for land use in the area, values have been prepared for a number of alternative development scenarios. Second, timing of the delivery of the property to market is impacted by a number of uncontrollable or uncertain events. Third, consultants have been asked to address both market value and investment value for each scenario. Fourth, values are further refined to reflect both full and partial relocation scenarios. Value is generally determined based on development opportunities at the property and the investor’s cost of capital. Development opportunities are established through what the local government will allow to be developed on the site based on land-use laws and policies (the general plan and zoning) and demand in the market. The prison site is unique because there are no local policies or laws currently established for the site, given its long public ownership and institutional use as a prison. Therefore, the consultants relied on interviews with local government officials regarding the desired direction for future development of the property and an evaluation of current and prospective market conditions to establish potential development scenarios for the state-owned land. Detailed market research was used to prepare alternative land use scenarios as part of the appraisal process — a situation not typically addressed as part of an appraisal process. A full discussion of the scenarios is provided following this section. It is not uncommon to assume that future land use may differ from the present if current zoning or use is inconsistent with market demand. Therefore shift of use from prison to other uses is not an unusual or extraordinary condition. The timing related to the transition of uses will create a somewhat extraordinary condition for a market transaction for the entire site because it may take up to seven years to build a replacement facility, relocate the prison functions and demolish the existing facilities. The seven-year timeframe assumes that all administra- Public Review Draft Prison Relocation Feasibility Study . State of Utah 7 tive and legislative approval processes work seamlessly. This study uses two approaches to value: the market value essentially assumes the state sells to a private developer and uses costs of capital available to the private sector and the investment value which in this case assumes the public sector (the state) is the investor and uses the state’s cost of capital. Summary LECG performed a complete appraisal of the prison site. (See Appendix B.) The appraisers were asked to evaluate the “highest and best use” of the land, which is essentially housing, as well as a scenario that reflects the community’s objective of an employment center with only ancillary housing. The values are as follows: Table 5: Summary of Value Estimates Valuation Scenario Highest & Best Use Market Value Investment Value $72,000,000 $93,000,000 $51,000,000 $77,000,000 $34,000,000 $49,000,000 (residential development) Full Relocation (mixed-use development) Partial Relocation (mixed-use development) The appraisal takes two approaches in the valuation of the prison property: market value and investment value. These are specifically defined terms in the appraisal industry as follows: Market Value is the most probable price which a property should bring in a competitive and open market under all conditions requisite to a fair sale, the buyer and seller each acting prudently, knowledgeably and assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus. Implicit in this definition is consummation of a sale as of a specified date and passing of title from seller to buyer under conditions whereby: • Buyer and seller are typically motivated; • Both parties are well-informed or well- advised and each acting in what they consider their own best interest; • A reasonable time is allowed for exposure in the open market; • Payment is made in terms of cash in U.S. dollars or in terms of financial arrangement comparable thereto; and • The price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing or sales concessions granted by anyone associated with the sale. Source: LECG Market value also assumes a discount rate of 12 percent which is market supported. Just on the basis of the capital cost and appraised values, the economic feasibility of relocating the prison seems doubtful at best. Appraisal Methodology Only a land valuation is made. This is accomplished using a discounted cash flow methodology that incorporates a sales comparison approach to value the land under the assumption of marketing in multiple development pods of 50 acres. Also taken into account are the cost of spine infrastructure and other costs incurred in taking the property to the status necessary to market as development pods. Net cash flows are then discounted to present worth using an appropriate discount rate. Investment value is defined as: “The specific value of an investment to a particular investor or class of investors based on individual investment requirements; as distinguished from market value, which is impersonal and detached.” In this appraisal, investment value is specific to the State of Utah. The State of Utah has a AAA Bond Rating. The current 10-year bond rate for AAA-rated borrowers as of September 14, 2005 is 3.65 percent. This is the State’s assumed cost of capital and is assumed to be accurate. The market would quickly absorb this acreage at relatively high prices for near-term residential development in the event of a full relocation of the prison. Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 8 That is why it has been identified as the “highest and best use.” However, residential housing alone, while potentially maximizing present value, does not maximize community benefits or the long-term potential of the property. That is why the alternative scenario was developed. Two valuation premises are considered, involving a full and partial relocation of the prison facility, respectively. The value estimates assume that: • • • • Necessary zoning and entitlements would have been secured for the property at the time of valuation; A grade-separated interchange will have been provided at Bangerter Highway and 13800 South at no cost to the project; No buildings on the site; and No cost to retire debt associated with the financing for energy improvements or the lease revenue bond that financed the surplus property facility. (See discussion below.) Demolition Costs The value that would be recovered by the state would be offset by the cost of demolishing the existing improvements on the site. The structures are primarily steel and concrete. The preliminary estimate of demolition and clearing of the entire site is $6,600,000. Under the partial relocation scenario, the cost of demolition is estimated to be $1,700,000. Summary A full economic and market analysis of the nation, state and surrounding area was conducted and is included in this report as Appendix C. The market study looks at various factors to determine the most likely development program to occur on the site given current economic and employment conditions. The market study area includes the jurisdictions of LECG DMJM Bluffdale, Draper, Herriman, Lehi, Riverton, Sandy, South Jordan and West Jordan. Given current economic trends and market demand, the land would be most marketable in the shortest timeframe as primarily residential property (mostly single family with some limited multifamily) and a small portion of retail space near the freeway interchange. If, however, the planning objectives provided by Draper City are implemented through its planning process, a much reduced amount of single and multi-family residential with substantial amounts of light industrial, office, and retail uses would be reasonable in the event of a full relocation. Only multi-family, industrial and office uses would occur in the event of a partial relocation. There are a number of factors which are taken into consideration in developing both the full and partial property development programs. These include existing and planned infrastructure improvements; national, statewide and area economic forces; current and anticipated development patterns in the area; and compatibility with the prison (for the partial relocation option). Existing and Planned Infrastructure Improvements These values do not include the value of water (including the geothermal pools) associated with the site that total an additional $1.8 million. CONCEPTUAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Carter Goble Associates The site has immediate access to Interstate-15 and Bangerter Highway. The area surrounding the site includes two existing interchanges for I-15 – Bangerter Highway and 14600 South. There is currently one access point from the property onto Bangerter Highway. Proposed improvements include a second Bangerter Highway access at 13800 South and a commuter rail station on or immediately adjacent to the site. The proposed improvements are conceptual at this point. In the case of the commuter rail station, identification of the final location will follow completion of the environmental and design processes. Currently there is not public funding for the 13800 South access to Bangerter Highway, funding is assumed for construction of the gradeseparated intersection in the event that it is built in association with this development program. Economic Forces Statewide job growth during 2004 was stronger than job growth in the nation as a whole. Utah job growth was 2.5 percent whereas nationally jobs grew Public Review Draft Prison Relocation Feasibility Study . State of Utah 9 at just 1.0 percent. The strongest sectors showing growth in Utah were construction at 5.6 percent, professional and business services at 5.2 percent, and education and health services at 3.2 percent. Employment in the professional and business services and education and health services sectors is more highly represented in the study area than in the state as a whole. Employment growth is expected to continue through 2005 and the near term at approximately the same rate experienced in 2004. Population growth in Utah is also higher than the national average. Utah’s population grew at 2.3 percent during 2004. Two of the fastest growing communities in the state for the period 2002-2003 were Herriman at 34.7 percent and Bluffdale at 16.6 percent. Both are part of the market study area. Utah’s population is expected to continue to grow as a result of natural population growth and net inmigration. At the same time that population and employment have been expanding, Utah’s wages have been increasing. Growth in non-agricultural wages for 2004 was 2.6 percent, just above the national average of 2.3 percent. Although this is an improvement over the 2003 growth in wages of 1.7 percent it is still low relative to historic wage growth. Current and Anticipated Development Patterns The prison site is in the fast developing southern Salt Lake/northern Utah County area of the State. The City of Draper would prefer redevelopment of the prison site as a mixed-use area including commercial, office and industrial development. Note: % Change 2003 - 2004 2.5 2 1.5 Utah 1 U.S. 0.5 0 Employment Growth Population Growth Draper further indicated that they would only consider residential uses at the prison site in the event that commercial, office and industrial uses were proven unachievable. In the near term, the market for residential uses is the most strong. Over the long term, and with active promotion from Draper City and the Governor’s Office of Economic Development, a mixed-use development could be successful. Single-Family Residential Data in the study area reflect strong performance in the single-family home entry-level market with 32 percent of new homes selling in the $150,000 to $174,999 range and 93 percent of new homes selling for under $300,000. Existing homes in the study area are reselling with the largest percentage (17 percent) in the $150,000 to $174,999 range and 69 percent selling for under $300,000. This would indicate that the strongest performance in housing sales at the prison site can be expected from subdivisions showing similar characteristics to this market. This market has dominated the west side of the Salt Lake Valley. It has also become the predominant market of the recent past as the “move up” market was nearly fully absorbed with the initial drop in interest rates in the mid to late 1990s. There is a mid- to upper-range priced housing project placed directly west of the prison on 14600 South that has been relatively successful. This suggests that, if properly planned and executed, the prison property could contain a mix of singlefamily housing types. However, the proximity to the freeway and the preponderance of demand in the area indicates that the bulk of the housing would be in the entry-level price range. Absorption rates for single-family homes have been increasing in the study area over the last several years, reflecting development patterns oriented towards the southern end of the Salt Lake Valley. The study area absorbed an annual average of 2,372 single-family units over the last three years. The full relocation development program assumes the site will capture three percent of the singlefamily market in the study area annually which is approximately six units per month. The partial Public Review Draft 10 Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants relocation development program does not include singlefamily residential development. The proximity of the remaining prison facility makes this type of development unlikely. Attached Single-Family Residential A sub-set of the single-family residential market is attached single-family homes/condominiums. Historically this has been a relatively small market in the study area. In 2004 the study area absorbed 438 attached singlefamily residential units compared to 389 in 2003 and 460 in 2002. Demand for attached single-family housing is expected to increase as the area becomes more built out and interest rates rise. Attached single-family units are included in the numbers discussed above. Apartments Vacancy rates in the apartment market of Salt Lake County, including the study area, peaked in January 2003 at 10.9 percent. Apartment vacancy in southern Salt Lake County was even higher at 11.7 percent. Prior to January 2003 southern Salt Lake County vacancy rates were higher than the county as a whole. Since then they have been, on average, lower. In June 2005 the Salt Lake County vacancy rate was 7.3 percent; while at the same time the rate for south Salt Lake County was 6.9 percent. Average rents in the southern end of Salt Lake County have remained relatively steady over the last five years. As vacancy rates continue to drop however, rents will most likely increase. According to data from local brokers, an average of 734 apartment units in large developments (over 40 units) have been constructed per year from mid-year 2002 to mid-year 2004 in the south end of Salt Lake County (the area south of 6200 South). If Salt Lake County’s average vacancy rate of 9.1 percent (mid-year 2002 – mid-year 2005) were applied to this total, the estimated number of new units rented per year would be about 670. If the prison site were to capture 30 percent of this average, roughly 200 units could be rented per year. Under the full relocation scenario, this represents an absorption period of about 11 years. Carter Goble Associates LECG DMJM Retail The amount of new retail space a given location can expect to attract and support is a result of the buying power of existing and anticipated households with reductions for existing and anticipated retail outlets competing for that buying power. Retail space is typically broken down into three types – neighborhood, community and regional. Neighborhood retail attracts the buying power of the nearest households, community retail draws from multiple neighborhoods and regional retail attracts the buying power of a much larger area. The proposed development program and existing neighborhoods in the region can support the amounts of retail outlined in Table 6. Each retail category is then adjusted by the amount of new and planned retail square footage in the area. (See Table 7.) Table 6: Supportable Retail Space, Prison Site and Surrounding Area Building & Garden General Merchandise Neighborhood Retail Square Feet Community Retail Square Feet 46,000 122,000 175,000 168,000 572,000 540,000 Regional Retail Square Feet Food Stores Motor Vehicle Dealers Apparel & Accessory 33,000 -28,000 -7,000 45,000 112,000 -67,000 12,000 15,000 31,000 Furniture 24,000 71,000 85,000 Eating Places Miscellaneous Retail 42,000 86,000 68,000 52,000 131,000 158,000 422,000 1,081,000 983,000 Totals Source: Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants, Inc. Table 7: Adjusted Supportable Retail Space, Prison Site and Surrounding Area Community Regional NeighborRetail Retail hood Retail Square Square Square Feet Feet Feet Totals Less major new or planned Adjusted Total 422,000 1,081,000 983,000 -377,000 -1060,000 -1,510,000 45,000 21,000 -527,000 Source: Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants, Inc. Public Review Draft Prison Relocation Feasibility Study . State of Utah 11 Opportunities for retail development at the prison site are limited. Eliminating residential development from the development program would further limit retail opportunities at the site. Office Vacancy rates in the Salt Lake County office market declined to 13.7 percent in the second quarter of 2005 from a 2004 vacancy rate of 15.3 percent. Vacancy rates in the southeast and southwest areas of Salt Lake County are lower at 6.5 percent and 7.4 percent respectively. Note that the southwest area of the county has a limited amount of office space. These areas follow the county-wide trend of declining vacancy rates and increased absorption in Class A and B office space. Class C office space shows increasing vacancy rates most likely as a result of opportunities for businesses to access Class A and B space at lower rents. The average annual absorption of new office space in Salt Lake County over the past five years has been 1,041,914 square feet. This absorption rate is expected to remain stable over the near term. The full relocation development program assumes an office space annual capture rate of 38 percent. The partial relocation development program assumes an office space annual capture rate of 34 percent. The capture rates for office are aggressive based on the assumption that Draper City and the Governor’s Office of Economic Development will lend its endorsement and active support to generating interest in the site. Industrial ture rate for industrial space at the prison site. The partial relocation development program assumes a 13 percent annual capture rate. As with the office space capture rates, the industrial capture rates assume that Draper City and the Governor’s Office of Economic Development will lend its endorsement and active support to generating interest in the site. Governor’s Economic Development Initiative A key component of Governor Huntsman’s 10-Point Plan for Economic Revitalization is to actively market areas of the state to target industries in order to increase employment opportunities in high wage sectors. This site is an ideal location for a technology center. Redevelopment of the prison site as a location for one or more of these target industries would enhance the absorption rates anticipated in the development program. Development Program — Full Relocation The development scenario for the “highest and best use” is outlined in Table 8. The current market supports primarily residential development with ancillary retail uses. Table 8: Development Program for Highest and Best Use Land Use Units Square Feet Gross Acreage Single-family 2,500 416 Multifamily-16 3,000 183 Regional retail 150,000 24 Trunk road system Total Vacancy rates in the Salt Lake County industrial space market decreased to 7.6 percent in the first half of 2005 from 8.5 percent in 2004 and 10.5 percent in 2003. However, vacancy rates in the study area are appreciably higher at 29 percent. This area is not in the high-traffic industrial corridors of the valley such as the SR201 corridor or other major distribution centers. County-wide there are 562,137 square feet of industrial space under construction, with an average annual absorption rate of 769,708 square feet annually over the last five years. The full relocation development program assumes a 14 percent annual cap- Public Review Draft 47 5,500 150,000 670 Proportionate Share of Land Uses Highest and Best Use Single-family Multifamily Retail Trunk road system Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 12 Carter Goble Associates LECG DMJM Figure 2: Full Relocation Mixed-Use Development Scenario DRAPER PRISON SITE LAND USES FULL RELOCATION Rail Land Use Business Park CR Station Institutional Light Industrial Mixed Use Multifamily - 16 Neighborhood Comm Office Open Space Regional Retail Single-Family W 13800 S BANGERTER HWY 15 § ¦ ¨ Streets ° Miles W 14600 S 0 0.125 0.25 0.5 Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants, Inc. Table 9: Mixed-Use Development Program For Full Relocation Land Use Units Square Feet Gross Acreage Proportionate Share of Uses Commuter Rail Station 14 Institutional 14 Commuter Rail 21 Institutional 176 Mixed Use Mixed Use Multifamily – 16 150 120,000 3,000 Mixed-Use Scenario 85,000 14 Multifamily General Office 1,100,000 85 Retail Regional Retail 175,000 28 General Office 92 Single-Family 156 High Tech Neighborhood Retail Single-family 550 Light Industrial/ Business Park 2,000,000 Trunk Road System Trunk Road System Total 70 3,700 3,480,000 670 Public Review Draft Prison Relocation Feasibility Study . State of Utah Alternatively, if the planning objectives of Draper City are met, the development program illustrated in Figure 2 represents a reasonable development program for the site. This scenario is summarized in Table 9. 13 Table 10: Development Program For Partial Relocation Land Use Units Square Feet Commuter Rail Station Light Industrial Development Program — Partial Relocation The partial relocation development program is based on the assumption that 190 acres of the site will be retained by the State of Utah for prison operations which would remain in Draper. This results in the uses outlined in Table 10. Multifamily – 16 Gross Acreage n/a 15 1,500,000 104 1,300 82 Neighborhood Retail 50,000 8 General Office 1,500,000 134 Business Park 1,000,000 97 Trunk Road System 40 Subtotal 480 Prison Total 1,300 n/a 190 4,050,000 670 Figure 3: Partial Relocation Development Scenario DRAPER PRISON SITE LAND USES PARTIAL RELOCATION Land Use Business Park CR Station Light Industrial Multifamily - 16 Neighborhood Comm Office Open Space Prison Rail Commuter Rail Station W 13800 S BANGERTER HWY Streets 15 § ¦ ¨ ° Miles W 14600 S 0 0.125 0.25 0.5 Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants, Inc. Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 14 Carter Goble Associates LECG DMJM Figure 4: Area Remaining in Prison Use—Partial Relocation Option Draper Prison Site Partial Relocation 200 W. Bangerter Hwy I-15 Legend 13800 S. Boundaries of Reduced Prison Operation Current Prison Property Boundaries ° 14600 S. Miles 0 0.125 0.25 0.5 Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants, Inc. IMPACT OF RELOCATION ON DRAPER The City of Draper currently receives about $100,000 from the 670-acre prison site. Conversely, it provides limited services and incurs no expenditures at the location. Following relocation and redevelopment, the property would be returned to the tax rolls and would generate revenue for Draper. The City of Draper would also have an obligation to provide services to the new residents and businesses at the site thereby incurring expenditures as well. An analysis of the expected revenues and projected expenditures under both the full and partial relocation development programs was completed as part of this feasibility analysis. The complete fiscal impact report is included as Appendix D. In the event of a full relocation of the prison, and future use of the property as primarily residential development (the “highest and best use” scenario) the City of Draper could expect a net increase in ongoing annual revenues of approximately $150,000. (This reflects increases in tax revenues offset by increased costs of providing municipal services to the area after it is fully developed.) If the future use is generally a technology and business park with associated retail and residential development (the mixed-use scenario), the anticipated annual net revenues to Draper are approximately $970,000 . Under the partial relocation option (which only occurs under the mixed-use scenario), the City of Draper is expected to experience annual net revenue of roughly $245,000 Public Review Draft Prison Relocation Feasibility Study . State of Utah 15 SECTION 2: COMMUNITIES RECOMMENDED FOR CONSIDERATION A number of factors were identified as the initial criteria in the analysis of potential locations for either full or partial prison relocation. A full report of the analysis, methodology, data sources and anticipated impact on the recommended communities is included as Appendix E. The factors evaluated include proximity to medical services, a labor and volunteer pool, community and professional services, major highways and roads and other infrastructure such as potable water, communications capacity, sewer, and electrical and natural gas supply. Other considerations include the impact of the location on transportation costs and the likelihood of future urban encroachment. The initial evaluation of suitability was primarily based on whether an area: • • • • • • • Has at least 30,000 people living within 30 miles; Is less than 30 minutes from a hospital with a full trauma center; Has access to potable water; Is less than 30 miles from a city with a reasonablysized police or sheriff department; and Is less than 5 miles from a major state highway or interstate. Has land available with less than a 5 percent slope; Is not federal land; Figure 5: Box Elder County Possible Locations (Promontory Point location not shown) The resulting map is attached to this report as Exhibit 1. The communities were further evaluated using a total of 45 factors outlined in Appendix E. The alternative site analysis is not focused on specific pieces of real estate but rather focuses on communities that have sufficient available sites and the requisite attributes that provide a suitable range of options for prison relocation. All communities in Utah were initially considered as candidate sites for prison relocation. The suitability of each community was evaluated through an objective analysis of data. Communities have been identified as suitable for a complete relocation or a partial relocation. Full Relocation Communities Box Elder County —Box Elder County from Promontory east to the Wasatch range meets many of the cri- Figure 6: Juab County Possible Locations Public Review Draft 16 Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants Carter Goble Associates LECG DMJM teria that would make the area highly suitable to both partial and full relocation. Proximity to major population centers and availability of suitable land augment the area’s suitability. Relatively stagnant wages, slow economic growth and higher than average unemployment may provide some incentives to accept a relocated facility. Initial contacts with county officials were not met with a positive response, particularly related to the southeastern portion of the county. Northeast Juab County — This area is located relatively close to the existing facilities at Gunnison and may draw from the same labor pool, but proximity to the Wasatch Front and its attendant services make Figure 7: Tooele County Possible Locations The areas shaded in green in the maps included as Figures 5 through 8 are the portions of the counties that have been identified as suitable for further evaluation for possible prisons. Figure 8: Partial Relocation Communities Public Review Draft Prison Relocation Feasibility Study . State of Utah 17 this area a highly suitable location for a full relocation. There is sufficient land that is distant from the most severe growth pressures of the Wasatch Front to remain out of the direct path of development. County officials are willing to participate in further evaluation to determine if there are suitable sites available. Tooele County (Rush Valley) — The Rush Valley area of Tooele County is located in relatively close proximity to the existing prison location. This proximity maximizes the opportunity to retain existing employees and to continue to utilize the resources offered in Salt Lake County. This location would provide the least amount of disruption to current operations in the event of a full relocation. Representatives of County government have indicated, however, that they are highly resistant to any locations within Tooele County. Partial Relocation Communities Communities recommended for partial relocation are located farther a field from the urbanized center of the state because the inmates who rely on close proximity to services found in more urban areas could be maintained at the Draper prison while others could be relocated at the new facility. The locations discussed above for full relocation would also be suitable for partial relocation. Carbon County — Carbon County meets all of the requirements for a partial relocation site; the population is adequate and there are available supporting institutions. The local workforce may not be adequate in terms of the possible draw of jobs in the mining and extractions sectors. Carbon County officials view the prison as an economic development opportunity. Iron County (Cedar City/Enoch) — The booming growth of Washington and Iron Counties creates an environment supportive of relocation. The growing population is supporting the expansion of local hospitals and community services at a rapid pace. The Cedar City/Enoch area benefits from the proximity of institutional support. This location is the furthest from Salt Lake City. Local officials responded favorably to initial inquiries regarding a prison site. Impacts to Communities As with Draper, any community hosting a prison facility would receive revenues related to energy use, which, with a full relocation, would approximate the current revenues received by Draper City of about $100,000 annually. A partial relocation would produce about one third to one half that amount, assuming the community charges the full six percent energy use tax. DOC officials indicated that prisons place some demands on communities for EMT services, but these costs were not discussed by Draper officials. Literature searches did not identify any major economic development gains to communities that became hosts to prison facilities, although in rural settings with few employment opportunities and low wage rates, prison jobs offer better than average wages. Full relocation is estimated to bring between 500 and 900 new jobs to its new location; while partial relocation will bring between 200 and 360 new jobs. Prisons, do not generally purchase goods and services in local areas — particularly if rural. Most contracts are let on a statewide basis. Greater economic benefit could be created with a shift of purchasing to local economies, if at all possible. Each of the recommended communities is of sufficient size to have in place the types of services necessary to accommodate the prison population and the families which may choose to relocate. These services include a local school district and a higher education institution within 50 miles. All recommended communities, with the exception of Iron County, have adequate mental health and substance abuse services. Additionally, each of the recommended communities has available religious and charitable organizations capable of providing religious and other volunteers to the prison. The 2004 annual operating cost experience for Draper was used for estimating related changes that might occur with totally new facilities. Public Review Draft 18 Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants SECTION 3: TRANSITION, OPERATING AND SITE ACQUISITION COSTS Transition Costs Prior to moving into a new facility there are preparation and start-up costs related to training, setup and relocation of inmates. The costs for transition activities to move approximately 4,000 inmates in a full relocation scenario are summarized in Table 11. The cost estimate assumes a five-person corrections staff “move-in” team to coordinate the set up and training necessary as well as to coordinate the actual process of moving the inmates. The estimate also assumes that twelve days will be necessary for the move. Under the Partial Relocation option, the costs for transition activities to move approximately 1,500 inmates are summarized in Table 15. The cost estimate still assumes a five-person corrections staff “move-in” team will be necessary but a five-day process of moving inmates. Operating Cost Differences It is well known in corrections construction that due to their complexity, 24-hour operation and staffing and special security conditions, the initial cost of building a prison is small compared to its annual operating expense over time. History has consistently shown that the cost of building a prison is only ten percent to 20 percent of the government’s total combined expenditure for construction and annual operations over the first 20 to 30 years of a new facility’s life. In other words, in replacing Draper the State of Utah can expect that 80 percent to 90 percent of what it spends on both building and operating a new facility for the next 20 to 30 years will be for operations. Carter Goble Associates LECG DMJM tremely efficient as is. The FY 2004/05 housing officer staff to inmate ratio was 1:7.6 (3,576 ADP ÷ 469 housing officers). The consultant prepared two optional 3-shift staffing concept plans, each with a 7day 24-hour relief factor of .7 as is currently used by the UDOC. One optional plan was for direct supervision inmate management and the other was for indirect supervision and it was found that neither could afford savings over the UDOC’s 2004/05 housing staff plan for Draper. For the direct supervision model applied to the “Full Replacement” option assuming a 3,920 ADP (all beds full excluding infirmary) a total of 594.2 FTE staff were needed, which yields a staff to inmate ratio of 1:6.7. For the indirect supervision model applied in the same manner a total of 635.0 FTE housing staff were needed, which yields a 1:6.2 staff to inmate ratio. It is thus assumed that the UDOC would continue its same staffing pattern for housing officers even with a new design in order to not require a less efficient staffing pattern. The primary factors considered in estimating the probable change in operating costs are listed below. All ongoing costs are calculated as a 2005 cost and then a 20 year present value is determined to allow the long term operating impacts to be evaluated. These include: • • • Transportation costs Staff relocation expenses Training and recruiting replacements Personnel Efficiency Gains The Fiscal Year 2004 cost per inmate per day for the Draper site of $60.87 is the basis for comparison for estimated costs at alternative sites. Labor costs make up 64 percent of the direct operating cost share of the amount, with the remaining 36 percent coming from other costs directly associated with housing the inmates. The staffing needed for inmate housing units is where new facility designs can have the potential to provide some operating cost savings over older facility designs. The consultants examined this potential, but found that significant staff reductions were not likely as the UDOC staffing at the Draper complex is ex- Transportation Costs — Currently the Draper complex generates 21,372 inmate trips a year that total 787,028 miles driven. In 2004 a total of $1.6 million was spent on inmate transportation at the Draper Complex. Table 12 presents the estimated change in transportation cost for each of the three Public Review Draft Prison Relocation Feasibility Study . State of Utah 19 Full Relocation Partial Relocation Table 15:Transition/Activation and Move-in Cost Table 11: Transition/Activation and Move-in Cost 2005 Present Function Value Cost Estimate UDOC 5-Person Transition Team $416,000 $180,000 $96,000 UDOC transition team expenses Inmate move 2005 Present Value Cost Estimate Function UDOC chase/escort cars UDOC 5-Person Transition Team $416,000 UDOC transition team expenses $180,000 Inmate move $40,000 $5,000 $4,000 $88,600 $733,600 $12,000 UDOC extra drivers & security escort $9,600 State /local police escort allowance $178,800 Total $892,400 Rounded $900,000 UDOC chase/escort cars Source: Carter Goble Associates, Inc. Source: Estimates by Carter Goble Associates, Inc. UDOC extra drivers & security escort State/ local police escort allowance Total Rounded $700,000 Table 12: Change in Transportation Costs Box Elder County Increased miles/trip Est. inmate trips Rush Valley Box Elder County 29 39 14 9,587 15,979 15,979 278,035 623,181 223,706 $2.04 $2.04 $2.04 $567,191 $1,271,289 $456,360 $8,000,000 $17,800,000 $6,400,000 Change in miles driven Cost per mile Change in Transportation Costs 20-Year PV Cost Table 16: Estimated Relocation Allowances Juab County Allowance Total Allowances Rush Valley 40 40 40 30 30 Allowance $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $120,000 $120,000 $120,000 $90,000 $90,000 Total Allowances Paid Source: Carter Goble Associates, Inc. Juab County Box Elder County Rush Valley 92 85 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $459,000 $276,000 $255,000 Source: Carter Goble Associates, Inc Table 14: Relocation-Related Recruitment and Training Box Elder Juab County Rush County Valley New Employees Needed Cost per Employee Recruitment/ Training Juab County Number of staff relocations Table 13: Estimated Relocation Allowances # of staff relocations Iron County Table 17: Relocation-Related Recruitment/Training Source: Carter Goble Associates, Inc. Box Elder County 153 Carbon County 934 779 519 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $14,010,000 $11,685,000 $7,785,000 New Employees Needed Cost per Employee Recruitment/ Training Cost Carbon County Public Review Draft Juab County Rush Valley 360 360 360 300 200 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $5,400,000 $5,400,000 $5,400,000 $4,500,000 $3,000,000 Source: Carter Goble Associates, Inc. Source: Carter Goble Associates, Inc. Iron County Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 20 Carter Goble Associates LECG DMJM full relocation recommended communities. Cost differences in transportation do not apply in the case of partial relocation. Transportation costs are not expected to change due to the classification of inmates who will be relocated. tions are significantly further from existing employees, the assumption was made that no employees would choose to commute to the new locations. All employees would make the decision to relocate or resign. Staff Relocation Expenses — Presently, 1,084 FTE positions exist at the Draper facility. Current employees reside along the Wasatch Front. The ability to retain existing personnel is dependent on the distance of the new facility from the employees’ homes. Retention percentages were established to estimate the number of current Department of Corrections staff moving to the new facility. The one-time additional cost of paying relocation allowances to DOC staff is estimated for each of the three full relocation plus two additional partial relocation recommended communities. (See Tables 13 and 16.) The cost estimates assume that if the new location is within 25 miles of the employee’s current address, and the employee chooses to remain with the Department of Corrections, the employee will be retained without any relocation expense. The remaining employees will either relocate or resign. State policy is to reimburse staff up to $3,000 for relocations of 50 miles or more. In the event of a partial relocation the Department of Corrections estimates that approximately 400 jobs will be moved from the Draper site to the new site. Because the Carbon and Iron County loca- Recruiting and Training Costs — Each of the employees choosing not to relocate will be replaced from the labor pool in the new location. The Department of Corrections estimates recruitment and training costs an average of $15,000 per new employee. The one-time additional cost for recruitment and training is estimated for each of the three full relocation recommended communities. (See Tables 14 and 17.) Site Acquisition Costs Although specific locations within each area have not been identified, a review of current real estate sales prices provides general ranges for site acquisition costs in each area. A site size of 500 acres would provide for a 3,968 bed facility with room for expansion to 6,000 beds. A site of 250 acres is assumed adequate for a partial relocation. Table 18: Estimated Site Acquisition Costs Box Elder County Price per Acre Acreage Needed Total Cost Juab County Rush Valley $6,000 500 $2,000 500 $4,000 500 $3,000,000 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 yes yes yes Water Rights Source: Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants, Inc. Table 19: Estimated Site Acquisition Costs – Partial Relocation Box Elder Carbon Iron County Juab County County County Price per Acre Acreage Needed Total Cost Water Rights Rush Valley $5,800 $1,500 $1,000 $1,250 250 250 250 250 250 $1,450,000 $375,000 $250,000 $312,500 $1,000,000 yes yes no yes yes Source: Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants, Inc. Public Review Draft $4,000 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study . State of Utah 21 SECTION 4: OTHER ISSUES, FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ning of value for the property. This is as true for publicly-held land as it is in the private sector. Timing The State of Utah is in a unique position as a land owner. If this property fits in the State’s overall economic development initiatives, the State can back the property’s development with the strength of the economic development staff. To the extent that transportation improvements could enhance the attractiveness of the site in drawing jobs to the state and to this site, the State is in a position to implement them. The partnership that could be formed with the City of Draper and a consortium of local developers could be strong in serving as a catalyst in promoting this area as a high technology employment center. While all costs and revenues have been expressed in 2005 dollars, it is important to understand relocation of a major prison facility is a substantial undertaking that will take a number of years. The administrative and legislative analysis, planning and approval processes would likely take between one and two years to complete. Site selection, planning and design would take an additional 18 to 24 months. Construction of the new facility is estimated to take 18 to 30 months and demolition of the existing prison will take between six months and one year. Therefore, a fully developable site will not be available for between five and seven years. The appraisal stated that the absorption period for the land is between three and seven years and of course, there are portions of the site that could be offered for sale prior to the abandonment and demolition of all or a portion of the prison facilities. There is vacant land north of Bangerter Highway that could be sold today with little impact from decisions made regarding the prison. In addition, there is also vacant land that is located to the south of Bangerter Highway that is included in the “Partial Relocation” option that could also be sold in the earlier years as planning is underway for the relocation of all or part of the prison functions. This property would be more easily sold once expectations regarding the future use of the Draper facility were certain. Disposition Strategies/Enhancing Value One of the most important aspects of establishing the value of any asset is guiding the public expectation of its future use. Property that has been “out of circulation” because it has been in long-term institutional use or tied up in complicated legal proceedings generally has little public expectation of having any value or future beneficial use. Establishing the expectation about the prospects for the land through announcements of plans, administrative action, formal plans for relocating the prison, requests for rezoning or entitlement, etc. can create a more solid underpin- Outstanding Debt In 2003 UDOC entered into an agreement with Johnson Controls, Inc., to build and finance an $11.5 million energy and building systems project that could take advantage of the unique geothermal aquifer located on the Draper site. (This is often referred to as the “ESCO Debt.”) The deal was structured so the project costs would be repaid over a 16-year period through energy cost savings realized from the project’s innovative design that would produce at least $190,000 annually in natural gas savings. This amount is guaranteed by Johnson Controls in the agreement. The repayment is structured with monthly payments between September 2003 and July 2004 and annual payments in July thereafter through 2022. This study assumes that a relocation would not occur until 2012; payments on the debt that occur prior to July 2012 are normal operating costs of the Draper site. Payment of the then outstanding balance was a present value (in 2005 dollars) of $7.5 million. This is an additional cost of a full relocation that would be incurred. Under a partial relocation, the energy system would remain in place and the value of the contract realized by UDOC. Additional Facilities Located on Draper Site The Utah Division of Surplus Property maintains a warehouse on the northern edge of the prison prop- Public Review Draft 22 Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants erty. This analysis has not provided for the replacement of this facility. Carter Goble Associates LECG DMJM ties (2) . Negative responses most frequently noted that it would be too high of a cost for taxpayers (12) and would only benefit developers of the area (7). Other concerns are displacement of current staff (7), impacts to families of prisoners (6), programs and treatments prisoners would be unable to receive such as hospital (4), educational and rehabilitation programs (2), volunteers for religious programs (1), disruption for potentially mentally fragile prisoners (1) and the loss of special programs in general (2). The increased costs of transportation to hospitals and courts are also mentioned (2). Some respondents fear that with a change of land use will come disruption to current community development patterns (1), increased traffic (3), new unwanted retail in the area (3), and loss of open space (3). In addition, Juvenile Justice Services has a facility on the eastern perimeter of the property. Replacement of this facility was also not taken into account in this analysis. Public Input The Division of Facilities Construction and Management has maintained a website that has solicited public comment since the initial draft scope of services was made available for public review in April 2005. This section summarizes comments received through September 30, 2005. A public open house will be held in November 30, 2005. Comments will be taken at the open house as well as through the Utah State web site through the December 7, 2005. Information about the open house and copies of this report are available for download at the website http://www.utah.gov. Advantages of the current location include access to experienced staff (2), plenty of land for future expansion (1) and its proximity to the general population that serves as a reminder of the consequences for misbehavior (2). Numbers in parentheses in the summary indicate the number of responses indicating the prior position or statement. One respondent could make a number of points that would be reflected in various parts of the summary. Public comment concerning the proposed prison relocation is closely split between people who favor the move (20) and those who don’t (24). Those with neutral views on the ultimate location were more concerned that specific factors be taken into account during the course of the study (6). The most common reason cited favoring prison relocation is economic benefit to Draper and its surrounding communities (8). Comments include such things as the prison is an eyesore (4), an embarrassment to the community (2) and poses a risk to the safety of the community if there is an escape (4). The prison land is too valuable for its current use (4), so some offer alternative uses such as parks (2) and housing. Benefits of relocation include reduction in congestion along the Wasatch Front (1), an opportunity for jobs and economic development in smaller counties (4), better living conditions for prison employees who would want to live in smaller communi- People asked that special attention be paid to transportation planning for the area (2), infrastructure that supports alternative energy sources (1), costs of zoning changes (1), how other states have handled this situation (1), that attention is paid towards the benefits of privatization of the prison (2), that it is proved the costs of needed renovation of the existing facilities are too high (2) and that current employees could be shuttled to the new site (2). Suggested alternative locations include the Goshute Lands (2), Tooele County (3), a remote location in general (1) and anywhere but Tooele County (3). Comments on this study can be submitted by email to PrisonStudyComments@utah.gov Public Review Draft Prison Relocation Feasibility Study . State of Utah 23 The relocation of the Utah State Prison Draper Facilities does not appear to be economically feasible. FEASIBILITY CONCLUSIONS The feasibility equation is based on expected revenue from the sale of the prison property and other benefits derived from the relocation less the cost of relocating the prison functions. This study has addressed numerous issues that will arise in the course of a prison relocation. Of course, this has been a first look at what will be a very complicated process. In the event of a full relocation, the highest anticipated value of the prison property is $93 million. With the value of water shares and an estimated 20-year net present value of the net fiscal impact to Draper City at build-out, total benefits/ revenues just top $108 million. Relocation of the prison functions is expected to cost between $445 million and $462 million. Relocation costs include construction, demolition, one-time and ongoing operating expenses, site acquisition costs and repayment of the ESCO debt. If the State of Utah chooses to implement the full relocation option, the net cost to the State would be between $352 million and $395 million (rounded). Tables 20 a and 20b summarize this data. Another option is to move a portion of the prison population to another location, reconfigure the prison services left at the Draper location and market the remaining acreage for development. Partial relocation of the prison functions is expected to cost between $135 million and $137 million. Relocation costs include construction, demolition, one-time and ongoing operating expenses and site acquisition costs. Tables 21a and 21b summarize the feasibility analysis of a partial relocation for each of the recommended communities. If the State of Utah chooses to implement the partial relocation option, the net cost to the State would be between $86 million and $103 million. Alternative Approach to Planning for Prison and Excess Land While the value of the prison property does not support full or partial relocation of the Draper prison functions, DOC is not projected to use the entire 670 state-owned acres, leaving approximately 300 to 350 acres available for other uses. This land provides opportunities for state use beyond those explored in this study. Therefore, the consultants suggest a strategic planning process that: • • • • • Identifies the amount of land DOC will require for future prison expansion at the Draper location; Identifies the facilities that will need replacement or substantial renovation that could alter the footprint of the prison and potentially free frontage properties in the future for alternative uses; Addresses the long-term needs of Juvenile Justice Services, Surplus Property and State Forestry/Fire; Evaluates state needs for the land such as potential state office campus, technology research park or other potential uses; and Generates site plan for future use that incorporates infrastructure requirements, coordinated phasing with DOC needs, coordination with local government and other state agencies. The remaining property is a valuable asset of the state that should not be left idle or simply sold as surplus property. Prior planning for state facilities has identified needs for office and other uses. This land is strategically located to serve many functions of state government. It could also be supportive of long-term economic development initiatives. Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 24 Carter Goble Associates LECG DMJM Table 20a: Feasibility Summary – Full Relocation Under Highest and Best Use Box Elder County Market Appraised Value Plus Value of Water Shares Juab County Investment Market Rush Valley Investment Market Investment $72,000,000 $93,000,000 $72,000,000 $93,000,000 $72,000,000 $93,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $13,600,000 $13,600,000 $13,600,000 $13,600,000 $13,600,000 $13,600,000 $87,400,000 $108,400,000 $87,400,000 $108,400,000 $87,400,000 $108,400,000 $421,800,000 $421,800,000 $421,800,000 $421,800,000 $421,800,000 $421,800,000 $6,600,000 $6,600,000 $6,600,000 $6,600,000 $6,600,000 $6,600,000 $900,000 $900,000 $900,000 $900,000 $900,000 $900,000 $8,000,000 $8,000,000 $18,000,000 $18,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $460,000 $460,000 $280,000 $280,000 $260,000 $260,000 $14,000,000 $14,000,000 $11,700,000 $11,700,000 $7,800,000 $7,800,000 Site Acquisition $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 Repayment of ESCO Debt $7,500,000 $7,500,000 $7,500,000 $7,500,000 $7,500,000 $7,500,000 $462,260,000 $462,260,000 $467,780,000 $467,780,000 $452,860,000 $452,860,000 Plus Benefit to Draper Subtotal Costs Construction Demolition Transition Operating Transportation Staff Relocation Recruitment/Training Cost Subtotal Net (Cost) Gain to State ($374,860,000) ($353,860,000) ($380,380,000) ($359,380,000) ($365,460,000) ($344,460,000) Note: Moderate cost estimates from the ranges provided in Appendix E were used to minimize the number of iterations of this summary. The costs could vary from $5 million less to $54 million more than the "moderate" estimate. Table 20b: Feasibility Summary – Full Relocation Under Mixed-Use Scenario Box Elder County Market Appraised Value Plus Value of Water Shares Plus Benefit to Draper Subtotal Juab County Investment Market Rush Valley Investment Market Investment $51,000,000 $77,000,000 $51,000,000 $77,000,000 $51,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $77,000,000 $1,800,000 $13,600,000 $13,600,000 $13,600,000 $13,600,000 $13,600,000 $13,600,000 $66,400,000 $92,400,000 $66,400,000 $92,400,000 $66,400,000 $92,400,000 $421,800,000 $421,800,000 $421,800,000 $421,800,000 $421,800,000 $421,800,000 $6,600,000 $6,600,000 $6,600,000 $6,600,000 $6,600,000 $6,600,000 $900,000 $900,000 $900,000 $900,000 $900,000 $900,000 $8,000,000 $8,000,000 $18,000,000 $18,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $460,000 $460,000 $280,000 $280,000 $260,000 $260,000 $14,000,000 $14,000,000 $11,700,000 $11,700,000 $7,800,000 $7,800,000 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 Costs Construction Demolition Transition Operating Transportation Staff Relocation Recruitment/Training Site Acquisition Repayment of ESCO Debt Cost Subtotal Net (Cost) Gain to State $7,500,000 $7,500,000 $7,500,000 $7,500,000 $7,500,000 $7,500,000 $462,260,000 $462,260,000 $467,780,000 $467,780,000 $452,860,000 $452,860,000 ($395,860,000) ($369,860,000) ($401,380,000) ($375,380,000) ($386,460,000) ($360,460,000) Note: Moderate cost estimates from the ranges provided in Appendix E were used to minimize the number of iterations of this summary. The costs could vary from $5 million less to $54 million more than the "moderate" estimate. Public Review Draft Prison Relocation Feasibility Study . State of Utah 25 Table 21a: Feasibility Summary – Partial Relocation/Mixed-Use Scenario (Investment Value) Box Elder County Appraised Value Plus Benefit to Draper (20 year NPV) Subtotal Juab County Rush Valley Carbon County Iron County $49,000,000 $49,000,000 $49,000,000 $49,000,000 $49,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $52,500,000 $52,500,000 $52,500,000 $52,500,000 $52,500,000 $128,000,000 $128,000,000 $128,000,000 $128,000,000 $128,000,000 $1,700,000 $1,700,000 $1,700,000 $1,700,000 $1,700,000 $730,000 $730,000 $730,000 $730,000 $730,000 Costs Construction Demolition Transition Operating Staff Relocation Recruitment/Training Site Acquisition $120,000 $90,000 $90,000 $120,000 $120,000 $5,400,000 $4,500,000 $3,000,000 $5,400,000 $5,400,000 $1,450,000 $310,000 $1,000,000 $375,000 $250,000 Cost Subtotal $137,400,000 $135,330,000 $134,520,000 $136,325,000 $136,200,000 Net (Cost) Gain to State ($84,900,000) ($82,830,000) ($82,020,000) ($83,825,000) ($83,700,000) Table 21b: Feasibility Summary – Partial Relocation/Mixed-Use Scenario (Market Value) Box Elder Juab County Rush Valley Carbon County County Appraised Value Plus Benefit to Draper (20 year NPV) Subtotal Iron County $34,000,000 $34,000,000 $34,000,000 $34,000,000 $34,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $37,500,000 $37,500,000 $37,500,000 $37,500,000 $37,500,000 $128,000,000 $128,000,000 $128,000,000 $128,000,000 $128,000,000 $1,700,000 $1,700,000 $1,700,000 $1,700,000 $1,700,000 $730,000 $730,000 $730,000 $730,000 $730,000 Costs Construction Demolition Transition Operating Staff Relocation Recruitment/Training Site Acquisition $120,000 $90,000 $90,000 $120,000 $120,000 $5,400,000 $4,500,000 $3,000,000 $5,400,000 $5,400,000 $1,450,000 $310,000 $1,000,000 $375,000 $250,000 Cost Subtotal $137,400,000 $135,330,000 $134,520,000 $136,325,000 $136,200,000 Net (Cost) Gain to State ($99,900,000) ($97,830,000) ($97,020,000) ($98,825,000) ($98,700,000) Public Review Draft APPENDIX A 1 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah APPENDIX A COSTS OF RELOCATION INTRODUCTION, FOCUS AND METHODS Abstract: Provides the basis for estimated construction costs for a full relocation ($421.8 million – moderate estimate) and a partial relocation ($128 million— moderate estimate). Estimates future operating costs for relocated facilities and functions and estimates demolition costs. Also provides background information for understanding the costs of construction and operations for prison facilities and provides alternative scenarios for construction and operations. This Chapter provides an analysis of the probable magnitude of cost that is likely to be involved in relocating the existing Draper prison complex to another site either in whole or in part. Preliminary estimates in 2005 present value dollars are included for: 1) construction, 2) additional non-recurring project costs, 3) annual recurring operating cost differences, and 4) site acquisition. Construction Versus Operating Costs Estimating the costs to rebuild the UDOC’s Draper prison complex, either in whole or in part should consider both the one-time construction related costs, startup costs and annual operating cost differences. While the capital project cost would be considerable and probably the first and only consideration by many it is not the most important consideration from a long-term public funding tax burden and economics standpoint. It is well known in corrections construction that due to their complexity, 24-hour operation and staffing, and special security conditions that the initial cost of building a prison is small compared to its annual operating expense over time. History has consistently shown that the cost of building a prison is only 10% to 20% of the government’s total combined expenditure for construction and annual operations over the first 20 to 30 years of a new facility’s life. In other words, in replacing Draper the State of Utah can expect that 80% to 90% of what it spends on both building and operating a new Draper for the next 20 to 30 years will be for operations. For example, the most recent annual operating cost available for the Draper complex was approximately $86 million for FY 2003-04. Thus even in assuming zero growth in Draper’s size, which is unrealistic, the State can expect that if annual operating cost inflation was held to a low average of only 3% per year that it would spend approximately $1 billion to operate the complex for the next 10 years, $2.38 billion for the next 20 years or $4.214 billion for the next 30 years. Thus, if $500 million was spent in 2005 present value dollars to replace the Draper complex that would only equal approximately 33% of the State’s combined capital project and operating expenditure at 10 years, 17% at 20 years and 11% in 30 years. Consequently, in deciding whether or not to move the Draper complex obviously any alternate location that would increase operating expenses should be very carefully considered since it’s long-term cost consequence could substantially increase the State’s tax burden. Although a totally new “Draper” with all new buildings and building systems will clearly create savings on annual maintenance, repair, replacement and energy costs the wrong locaPublic Review Draft Carter Goble Associates 2 tion from an operating conditions standpoint will have serious cost disadvantages. Key factors such as labor force availability, access to courts, hospitals, treatment and counseling specialists, and transport costs are major factors of annual operating expense. While the one-time construction costs of different locations could vary somewhat from site to site it is the recurring annual operating cost impact that will be the most substantial and must be funded every year. Methods The capital project costs for constructing and equipping a replacement of the Draper complex, site acquisition costs; one-time start-up transition/activation and building commissioning costs; and probable increases or decreases in annual operating costs all need to be considered. To help assure that all such preliminary cost estimates are comparable and do not include speculative assumptions about future inflation or financing preferences all estimates in this analysis are based on 2005 present value dollars. To do so the most recent available annual operating cost experience for Draper, which is from 2004 was used for estimating related changes that might occur with totally new facilities. All capital project cost estimates are based on the consultant’s experience with Utah construction costs as well as recent comparable major prison construction projects elsewhere in the U.S. mainland. All operating cost analyses are based on data provided by the UDOC and the consultant’s experience in correctional facilities operations. The intent of this chapter is to provide a preliminary order of magnitude estimate of the probable cost ranges rather than attempting to pinpoint one possible figure since doing so would require the completion of schematic design for a specific site and the related conditions that would affect both construction and operating costs. To do so the consultant: 1) obtained an existing total bed count and existing building square footages; 2) inspected the complex to confirm the mission, custody and general conditions of each facility; and 3) obtained the most recent total annual operating cost experience for the Draper complex. Using the agreed on maximum count of 3,968 beds as one basis for the analysis a quantitative construct of the space needs for a replacement complex was made. The model developed assumes seven (7) new correctional facilities, plus a number of centralized support functions or services to be co-located inside a single perimeter security system similar to the existing Draper complex. The final steps in the model apply 2005 present value construction cost estimates to each facility, plus centralized support services and functions to derive an estimated construction cost for the whole complex. Since this analysis is being done at a limited macro level without the benefit of any architectural space programming or preliminary design development for a specific site the estimates must be considered preliminary and “likely order of magnitude” in nature rather than precise. Consequently, a series of estimates was developed to provide a high, medium and low range of estimates. Current Versus Expandable Initial Sizing In the interest of long-term savings and economics, building any major correctional facility today is usually done to include the construction of an “oversized” support core of space for centralized services and functions, either for a single facility or a complex of multiple facilities. By doing so future capacity expansions only require the addition of some equipment or furnishings and construction of new housing units and not the costly expense of having to remodel and add onto the building space for kitchens, laundries, offices, medical clinics, infirmaries, central plants, etc. Thus, for comparison, both a “current capacity” replacement and an “expandable capacity” replacement option have been estimated. To do so the centralized services and individual facilities internal support core spaces were size estimated at a nominal 4,000-bed capacity in the “current capacity” options, whereas a 6,000-bed support capacity was applied for all centralized support services and functions and individual facility internal support cores for considering the cost of a new complex with “expandable capacity.” While the 6,000-bed support core obviously costs more in 2005 dollars, it would enable the State to expand in the short- and long-range by only adding housing units to move up from 4,000 beds to 6,000 beds. Long-term savings of having a built-in expansion capacity could be considerable in comparison to paying for costly correctional construction in current or nearterm dollars rather then the inflated costs 10 years from now. Although it is certainly possible to master plan and design a complex such as this to be expandable without having to build the expandable oversized support core initially it would not be as economical for the State in the long-run since future expansions requiring support core space additions would be comparatively more costly. Public Review Draft APPENDIX A 3 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Existing Capacity Table A-1 Draper Prison Complex Capacity Ratings by Custody Groups In 1995 CGA prepared a Needs Assessment for Utah’s Adult and Juvenile Corrections facilities.1 Part of that Assessment included making a capacity rating of all the Draper facilities. At that time the Physical Plant space standards of the American Correctional Association were applied in the analysis to determine what a standardscompliant bed count would be for Draper. Since the 1995 study the UDOC has made a number of changes with remodeling and some new construction at Draper that has substantially increased the number of standards compliant beds available to 3,740. This was done with a combination of new housing construction at certain facilities, the addition of one new facility (Lone Peak/VOITIS) and remodeling usually with double bunking at several locations.2 Table A-1 summarizes the bed capacity rating for Draper by facility, gender and custody level in three different ways. First, column one of Table A-1 shows the earlier referenced 3,968 beds that equal the current maximum bed count used by the DOC. Second, column two shows the “Operational Bed Count” used by the DOC, which are the number of beds that can be used for long-term placements or the total maximum population count. This count excludes those beds needed for temporary assignments such as the 20 infirmary beds for medical observation and recuperation and another 176 beds used for temporary administrative segregation, disciplinary segregation or special management needs that require inmates to be separated for temporary observation, isolation or movement. The third count in column three shows the standards-compliant rating from the results of CGA’s 1995 Needs Assessment as prepared for the Utah State Building Author- Existing Facility & Classification W asatch - M edium & Diagnostic A East - G en. Pop. - M ed A W est - Diagnostic/R&O - M ed B Block - G en. Pop. - M ed B North - M R/DD - M ed C Block - G en. Pop. - M ed D Block - Sex O ffenders - M ed SSD Dorm - Sex O ffenders - M ed Infirm ary - M edical - M ed 2005 UDO C Total Incount Beds Rated Capacities 2005 UDO C ACA Design 1 Standard O ps. Beds Totals 95 170 192 28 68 192 135 20 900 91 163 180 26 67 180 134 20 861 95 170 192 28 60 192 135 20 892 Totals 96 192 192 192 122 794 85 180 180 180 116 741 96 96 192 192 70 646 Totals 144 144 144 144 252 828 138 138 138 138 234 786 144 144 144 144 252 828 Totals 143 143 140 143 569 135 135 125 135 530 144 144 144 144 576 22 48 48 23 36 177 18 40 40 20 36 154 24 48 48 24 35 179 400 400 319 300 300 300 3,968 3,772 3,740 978 2,030 960 970 2,041 761 906 2,164 670 20 in M edium 20 in M edium 20 in M edium 3,968 3,772 3,740 Uinta - M axim um Unit 1 - Death Row/ Inten. M gt. - M ax Unit 2 - G ang m em bers - M ax Unit 3 - R&O / PV/ Sigm a - M ed/M ax Unit 4 - Kappa - M ed/M ax Unit 5 - R&O /Intake - M ed/M ax O quirrh - M edium & M inim um Unit 1 - G en. Pop. - M ed Unit 2 - G en. Pop. - M ed Unit 3 - G en. Pop. - M ed Unit 4 - G ang m em bers - M ed Unit 5 Annex - S/O /K - M in T im panogas - Fem ale All Custody Unit 1 - G en. Pop. - M ed Unit 2 - G en. Pop. - M ed Unit 3 - G en. Pop. - M ed Unit 4 - Sub. Abuse THC - M ed O lym pus - M ental Health Unit A - Fem ale - M ed Unit B - R&O /Intake - M ed Unit C - M ale - M ed Unit D - M ale - M ax Dorm - M ale - M in Totals Prom ontory - M inim um 8 Dorm s @ 50 beds ea. - G en. Pop. - M in Lone Peak - M inim um 6 Dorm s @ 50 beds ea.- G en. Pop. - M in Com plex T otals Security Level Distribution M inim um Security M edium Security M axim um Security Infirm ary Com plex G rand T otals Source: Utah Correcitonal System Needs Study by CG A November 1995 and UDO C for 2005 counts by facility, July 2005 . 1 Rated design capacity from 1995 System Needs Study findings and updated for subsequent additions. 1 Utah Correctional System Needs Study, prepared for the Utah State Building Board in cooperation with the Utah Department of Corrections and the Division of Youth Corrections, by Carter Goble Associates, Inc., November 1995. 2 Remodeling and double-bunking to increase capacity since 1995 included: Wasatch with 105 beds added in three cell blocks and the SSD dorm; Uinta with 148 beds added via double-bunking Units 5 and 2; Oquirrh with 150 beds added via remodeling in Unit 5; and continued use of 81 beds above the CGA rated capacity of Promontory. Source: UDOC Facilities Management staff, September 2005. Public Review Draft Carter Goble Associates 4 ity and updated for the standards compliant changes made to expand capacity since that time. The major new construction expansions at Draper since 1995 have included: 1) re-opening of the Promontory Facility at 400 beds, which was just being activated in 1995 by a private operator; 2) the opening of the Lone Peak/VOITIS Facility for 300 beds, which took the place of the old Lone Peak Facility operated at Camp Williams in 1995; and 3) new cell house additions to Uinta for 384 beds. The other various remodeling/ additions and double-bunking to expand capacity are as noted in footnote 2. As Table A-1 shows the application of ACA standards to the Draper complex indicates that the maximum bed count exceeds the number that would be provided by current space standards. The 2005 “Total In-count Beds” at Draper of 3,968 is 228 beds more than the updated standards rated capacity of 3,740 beds. In comparison, the 1995 Needs Assessment found a total of 3,098 beds being used versus a maximum rated capacity of 2,866 beds. Thus, the relative degree of crowding above rated capacity at the Draper complex is still about the same as it was in 1995. This finding explains in part why replacing the entire complex today by current standards would require substantially more building space than its existing 1.093 million square feet. The other part is the lack of sufficient support spaces for inmate services, programs, staff spaces, facility services, storage, etc. In other words, to replace Draper its continuing space deficit needs to be corrected. In doing so the 3,968 bed count for 2005 shown in Table A-1 will be used for the replacement analysis along with space needs estimators to yield a conceptual construct for a standards-compliant correctional complex. CGA in 1995 was also reviewed since that study conducted a more in-depth assessment of the capacity ratings by ACA standards and conditions of each UDOC facility. Up to date existing building space gross square footage for Draper was also provided by the UDOC for all buildings at the complex. Table A-2 provides the August 2005 count of all 3,968 beds by facility, gender and custody level that was used to develop a total allocation of bed capacity for a replacement complex, which is computed in Table A-3. Table A-4 simply gives the resulting percentage ratios of the total allocation of the beds as derived in Table A-3. These allocations were used to develop concepts for the seven facilities that would replace the Draper complex. In summary those facilities would replace the Draper facilities as follows: New Prison: Replaces: 1. Male Maximum Security Unit – 672 beds 1A. Central Clinic and Infirmary – 48 beds 2. Male Medium Security & Intake R/O Unit – 936 beds 3. Male Medium Security Unit – 870 beds 1. Uinta – 794 beds 1A. Wasatch clinic and infirmary 20 beds 4. Forensic Diagnostic and Treatment Unit – 212 beds 5. Women’s Unit – 426 beds 4. Olympus – 177 beds 6. Male Minimum Security Substance Abuse Therapeutic Community – 402 beds 7. Male Minimum Security Work/ Transition – 402 beds Total – 3,968 beds REPLACEMENT CONCEPT OPTIONS AND CONSTRUCTION COST ESTIMATES Bed Capacity Replacement Model In order to estimate the probable size and cost magnitude of constructing a “New Draper Complex” a computation of the August 2005 actual total bed capacity of all Draper facilities by physical security level, gender and custody/classification assignments was made from data provided by UDOC. Additionally the Adult Corrections Needs Assessment completed by 2. Oquirrh – 828 beds plus 143 Timpanogos male beds 3. Wasatch & SSD – 880 beds 5. Timpanogos female section – 426 beds 6. Promontory – 400 beds 7. Lone Peak – 300 beds Total – 3,968 beds New Centralized Support Facilities 1. Complex Administration & Visit Center 2. Central Kitchen 3. Industries Center 4. Central Laundry 5. Warehouse and Maintenance Unit 6. Central Plant Public Review Draft Replaces: 1. Draper Admin Building and separate visit areas 2. Wasatch central kitchen 3. Various separate industries buildings 4. Wasatch and other separate laundries 5. Draper warehouses and maintenance facilities 6. Draper power substation and two pump houses APPENDIX A 5 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Table A-2 Table A–3 Existing 2005 Draper Facilities Total Bed Count Proposed 2005 Draper Replacement Bed Allocations August 1, 2005 Totals Existing Facility & Classification Bed Classification Male Female Totals 838 140 978 1,865 165 2,030 817 143 960 3,520 448 3,968 250 38 288 42 5 48 Wasatch – Medium & Diagnostic A East – Gen. Pop. – Med 1. Minimum Security Beds 95 A West – Diagnostic/R&O – Med 170 B Block – Gen. Pop. – Med 192 B North – MR/DD - Med 28 C Block – Gen. Pop. – Med 68 D Block – Sex Offenders – Med 192 SSD Dorm – Sex Offenders – Med 135 Infirmary – Medical - Med 2. Medium Security Beds 3. Maximum Security Beds Total Capacity Subtotal Infirmary & Seg. Spc. Mgt. Cells 4. Seg/Special Mgt. Cells (in all sec)1 20 Totals 900 Uinta - Maximum 5. Infirmary Beds (in med sec) Unit 1 – Death Row/ Inten. Mgt. – Max 96 Unit 2 – Gang members – Max 192 Unit 3 – R&O/PV/Sigma – Med/Max 192 Unit 4 – Kappa – Med/Max 192 Unit 5 – R&O/Intake – Med/Max 122 Totals 794 2 Source: Table 1 Bed Count with allocations by CGA, August 2005 1 Special Management beds add 5% to 10% of operating capacity and are maximum security single-bunked cells needed in each separate facility for temporary placements such as administrative and disciplinary segregation, behavioral observation, suicide watch, protective custody, admissions fluctuations, maintenance downtime, etc. 2 Oquirrh – Medium & Minimum Unit 1 – Gen. Pop. – Med 144 Unit 2 – Gen. Pop. – Med 144 Unit 3 – Gen. Pop. – Med 144 Unit 4 – Gang members – Med 144 Unit 5 Annex – S/O/K - Min 252 Totals 828 Timpanogas – Female All Custody Unit 1 – Gen. Pop. – Max (male med temp.) 143 Unit 2 – Gen. Pop. – Med 143 Unit 3 – Gen. Pop. – Min 140 Unit 4 – Sub. Abuse THC – Med Infirmary beds are recommended at a ratio of 5 per 500 general population beds for non-acute medical care, observation, and recuperation, plus 1 per 500 beds for acute mental health in-patient care. Locations remote from an acute care hospital would require additional infirmary beds. Table A-4 Proposed 2005 Draper Replacement Bed Allocations by Percentage Bed Classification Male Female Totals 1. Minimum Security Beds 21.1% 3.5% 25% 2. Medium Security Beds 47.0% 4.2% 51% 3. Maximum Security Beds 20.6% 3.6% 24% 89% 11% 100% 6.3% 1.0% 7.3% 1.1% 0.1% 1.2% 143 Totals 569 Olympus – Mental Health Unit A – Female – Med 22 Unit B – R&O/Intake – Med 48 Unit C – Male – Med 48 Unit D – Male – Max 23 Dorm – Male – Min 36 Totals 177 Subtotal Infirmary & Seg. Spc. Mgt. Cells 4. Seg/Special Mgt. Cells (in all sec)1 5. Infirmary Beds (in med sec)2 Source: Table 2 Bed allocation computations by CGA, August 2005 Promontory – Minimum Sub. Abuse THC 8 Dorms @ 50 beds ea. – Gen. Pop. – Min. Total Capacity 400 Lone Peak – Minimum & Low Medium 6 Dorms @ 50 beds ea. – Gen. Pop. 300 Complex Totals 3,968 Security Level Distribution Minimum Security 978 Medium Security 2,030 Maximum Security 960 Infirmary 20 in Medium Complex Grand Totals 3,968 Public Review Draft Carter Goble Associates 6 While the grand total number of beds to be replaced is 3,968 there are some variations in the distribution of beds for the proposed replacement facilities. These variations result from standard corrections planning and population management guidelines noted in the footnotes for Table A-3 related to the need for special management, infirmary and mental health in-patient beds. The detailed results from the replacement model are shown for different options and cost ranges in Tables A-5 through A-13. The results are derived from the following sequence of computations using size and component cost estimators as the basis for the preliminary total construction cost estimates. 1. define each facility by general mission/ function; 2. assign bed counts by custody and security type for housing; 3. define centralized support services and functions to serve all facilities; 4. apply building gross square footage (BGSF) per bed estimators applicable to each housing type, each facility’s internal support core spaces and the proposed centralized support services and functions to derive a total facility size; 5. apply construction cost per square foot estimators for 2005 present values; and 6. add project soft costs estimators to derive a total construction cost estimate. Option 1: Full Replacement with Basic Support Core The first set of estimates in Tables A-5 through A-7 provide a moderate, high and low range of probable cost estimates for replacing the existing 3,968 beds at Draper with a support core sized to support no more than approximately the same number of beds. If the State elected to build one of these options it would be important that the master planning and design for such a complex be done to be expandable in order to accommodate future growth unless it was decided that the complex would never be expanded beyond a cap of 4,000 beds. However, co-locating instead of dispersing correctional facilities results in far more economical annual operating costs since centralized functions do not have to be replicated. In this regard the more expandable the design the more economical for the State in the long-run before a new site for another complex or another single prison is needed. In summary the preliminary estimates for Option 1 “Basic Replacement” of the entire Draper complex as detailed in the Tables A-5 through A-7 and rounded to the nearest hundred thousand dollars are: 3,968 Beds with Basic 4,000-Bed Support Core For those readers not familiar with the common size requirements of contemporary prisons the Chapter 6 Appendix includes a summary of 20 different exemplary prisons by type and size with square footage per bed and whether or not expansion capacity was builtin the initial construction. Full Replacement The following narrative and Tables A-5 through A-10 describe the results of the use of the replacement models to estimate costs for two different options to achieve a “Full Replacement” of the entire Draper complex. Following this section the results of the application of the same methodologies are described for “Partial Replacement” scenarios. Public Review Draft Moderate Low High $421,800,000 $416,800,000 $475,000,00 APPENDIX A 7 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Table A-5 Full Replacement: Option 1 Basic at Moderate Construction Cost Estimate (3,968 beds with 4,000-bed support core) F acility M ale M axim um S ecu rity U nit 1. O perational B eds - 608 S ingle-bunk cells 15x 32+8x 16 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 3. S upport Core B ed Design Capacity 608 64 na 672 T otal M ale M ediu m S ecurity & In take Un it 1. O perational B eds - 854 S ingle-bunked cells - 2x 32 64 Double-bunked cells - 10x 32 640 50-bed dorm s - 3x 50 150 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 82 3. S upport Core na T otal 936 M ale M ediu m S ecurity Unit 1. O perational B eds -790 Double-bunked cells - 10x 64 640 50-bed dorm s - 3x 50 150 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 80 3. S upport Core na T otal 870 F o ren sic Diag no stic & T reatm ent Unit 1. O perational B eds - 192 S ingle-bunked cells 4x 24+ 2x 16 (16fem ) 128 Double-bunked cells - 2x 16 64 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 20 3. S upport Core na T otal 212 W om ens' Un it 1. O perational B eds - 388 S ingle-bunked cells - 2x 16 32 Double-bunked cells - 4x 64 256 Dorm s - 2x 50 100 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 38 3. S upport Core na T otal 426 M ale M in im um S ecu rity Un it 1 (wk rel) 1. O perational B eds - 8x 50-bed dorm s 400 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 2 3. S upport Core na T otal 402 M ale M in im um S ecu rity Un it 2 (T H C ) 1. O perational B eds - 8x 50-bed dorm s 400 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 2 3. S upport Core na T otal 402 S u pp o rt S ervices Facilities 1. Com plex A dm in/ V isit Center 4,000 beds 2. Central K itchen " 3. Clinic and 48-bed Infirm ary " 4. Industries Center " 5. Central Laundry " 6. W arehouse & M aintenance Unit " 7. Central P lant " T otal " B uilding G ross S F Construction Cost/ S F 179,360 18,880 43,680 241,920 $ $ $ 18,880 112,000 28,500 24,190 79,560 263,130 $ $ $ $ $ 112,000 28,500 23,600 73,950 238,050 $ $ $ $ 37,760 11,200 5,900 20,140 75,000 $ $ $ $ 9,440 44,800 19,000 11,210 40,470 124,920 $ $ $ $ $ 76,000 590 26,130 102,720 $ $ $ 76,000 590 38,190 114,780 $ $ $ 32,000 24,000 20,000 40,000 4,000 20,000 10,000 150,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Com plex S ub total O perational B eds Infirm ary & S pecial M gt. B eds (48+288) Unit S upport Cores T otal A ll Units Centralized Support S erv ices F acilities 3,632 336 na 3,968 753,440 84,960 322,120 1,160,520 150,000 Co m p lex G ran d T otal 3,968 1,310,520 $ 275 275 150 275 275 175 275 150 275 175 275 150 275 275 275 150 275 275 175 275 150 175 275 150 175 275 150 120 150 200 125 180 110 250 257 T otal Const. Cost P roject C osts 1 @ 25% E stim ated 1 C ost $ 1,638,000 $ $ $ $ 15,267,000 $ 76,335,000 5,192,000 30,800,000 4,987,500 6,652,250 11,934,000 59,565,750 $ 1,298,000 $ 7,700,000 $ 1,246,875 $ 1,663,063 6,490,000 38,500,000 6,234,375 8,315,313 14,917,500 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 49,324,000 5,192,000 6,552,000 61,068,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 12,331,000 $ 1,298,000 61,655,000 6,490,000 8,190,000 $ 2,983,500 $ $ $ $ $ $ 14,891,438 $ 74,457,188 30,800,000 4,987,500 6,490,000 11,092,500 53,370,000 $ 7,700,000 $ 1,246,875 $ 1,622,500 $ $ $ $ $ 38,500,000 6,234,375 8,112,500 13,865,625 66,712,500 $ $ $ $ $ 10,384,000 3,080,000 1,622,500 3,021,000 18,107,500 $ $ $ $ $ 12,980,000 3,850,000 2,028,125 3,776,250 22,634,375 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2,596,000 12,320,000 3,325,000 3,082,750 6,070,500 27,394,250 $ $ $ $ $ $ 3,245,000 15,400,000 4,156,250 3,853,438 7,588,125 34,242,813 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 16,625,000 202,813 4,899,375 21,727,188 $ $ $ $ 16,625,000 202,813 7,160,625 23,988,438 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 4,800,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 6,250,000 900,000 2,750,000 3,125,000 27,325,000 $ 2,773,125 $ 13,342,500 $ 2,596,000 $ 770,000 $ 405,625 $ 755,250 $ 4,526,875 $ 649,000 $ 3,080,000 $ 831,250 $ 770,688 $ 1,517,625 $ 6,848,563 13,300,000 162,250 3,919,500 17,381,750 $ 3,325,000 $ 40,563 $ 979,875 $ 4,345,438 $ $ $ $ 13,300,000 162,250 5,728,500 19,190,750 $ 3,325,000 $ 40,563 $ 1,432,125 $ 4,797,688 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 3,840,000 3,600,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 720,000 2,200,000 2,500,000 21,860,000 $ 960,000 $ 900,000 $ 1,000,000 $ 1,250,000 $ 180,000 $ 550,000 $ 625,000 $ 5,465,000 $ 184,396,000 $ 82,864,000 $ 48,318,000 $ 315,578,000 $ 21,860,000 $ $ $ $ $ 46,099,000 20,716,000 12,079,500 78,894,500 5,465,000 $ 230,495,000 $ 103,580,000 $ 60,397,500 $ 394,472,500 $ 27,325,000 $ 337,438,000 $ 84,359,500 $ 421,797,500 Source: Prelim inary estim ates by Carter G oble Associates, Inc. and DM JM Design, August 2005. 1 Additions to construction cost reported as custom ary level for DFCM projects for professional fees, FF&E, com m unications system , legal, testing, survey, inspections, transition/activation/com m issioning, and design and construction contingency in 2005 present value dollars. Additions do not include land acqusition, financing costs, inflation, and any unusual site/environm ental conditions or m itigation. Public Review Draft Carter Goble Associates 8 Table A-6 Full Replacement: Option 1 Basic at Low Construction Cost Estimate (3,968 beds with 4,000-bed support core) F acility M ale M axim u m S ecu rity U n it 1. O perational B eds - 608 S ingle-bunk cells 15x 32+ 8x 16 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 3. S upport C ore B ed D esign C apacity 608 64 na 672 T otal M ale M ed iu m S ecu rity & In take U n it 1. O perational B eds - 854 S ingle-bunked cells - 2x 32 64 D ouble-bunked cells - 10x 32 640 50-bed dorm s - 3x 50 150 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 82 3. S upport C ore na T otal 936 M ale M ed iu m S ecu rity U n it 1. O perational B eds -790 D ouble-bunked cells - 10x 64 640 50-bed dorm s - 3x 50 150 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 80 3. S upport C ore na T otal 870 F o ren sic D iag n o stic & T reatm en t U n it 1. O perational B eds - 192 S ingle-bunked cells 4x 24+ 2x 16 (16fem ) 128 D ouble-bunked cells - 2x 16 64 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 20 3. S upport C ore na T otal 212 W o m en s' U n it 1. O perational B eds - 388 S ingle-bunked cells - 2x 16 32 D ouble-bunked cells - 4x 64 256 D orm s - 2x 50 100 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 38 3. S upport C ore na T otal 426 M ale M in im u m S ecu rity U n it 1 (wk rel) 1. O perational B eds - 8x 50-bed dorm s 400 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 2 3. S upport C ore na T otal 402 M ale M in im u m S ecu rity U n it 2 (T H C ) 1. O perational B eds - 8x 50-bed dorm s 400 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 2 3. S upport C ore na T otal 402 S u p p o rt S ervices F acilities 1. C om plex A dm in/ V isit C enter 4,000 beds 2. C entral K itchen " 3. C linic and 48-bed Infirm ary " 4. Industries C enter " 5. C entral Laundry " 6. W arehouse & M aintenance U nit " 7. C entral P lant " T otal " B uilding G ross S F C onstruction C ost/ S F 179,360 18,880 43,680 241,920 $ $ $ 18,880 112,000 28,500 24,190 79,560 263,130 $ $ $ $ $ 112,000 28,500 23,600 73,950 238,050 $ $ $ $ 37,760 11,200 5,900 20,140 75,000 $ $ $ $ 9,440 44,800 19,000 11,210 40,470 124,920 $ $ $ $ $ 76,000 590 26,130 102,720 $ $ $ 76,000 590 38,190 114,780 $ $ $ 32,000 24,000 20,000 40,000 4,000 20,000 10,000 150,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ C o m p lex S u b to tal O perational B eds Infirm ary & S pecial M gt. B eds (48+288) U nit S upport C ores T otal A ll U nits C entralized S upport S erv ices F acilities 3,632 336 na 3,968 753,440 84,960 322,120 1,160,520 150,000 C o m p lex G ran d T o tal 3,968 1,310,520 $ 235 235 205 235 225 195 235 205 225 195 235 205 235 225 235 205 235 225 195 235 205 195 235 205 195 235 205 175 195 220 165 205 205 350 254 T otal C onst. C ost P roject C osts 1 @ 25% E stim ated 1 C ost $ 2,238,600 $ $ $ $ 13,885,200 $ 69,426,000 4,436,800 25,200,000 5,557,500 5,684,650 16,309,800 57,188,750 $ 1,109,200 $ 6,300,000 $ 1,389,375 $ 1,421,163 5,546,000 31,500,000 6,946,875 7,105,813 20,387,250 $ $ $ $ $ 25,200,000 5,557,500 5,546,000 15,159,750 51,463,250 $ $ $ $ $ 8,873,600 2,520,000 1,386,500 4,128,700 16,908,800 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2,218,400 10,080,000 3,705,000 2,634,350 8,296,350 26,934,100 $ 554,600 $ 2,520,000 $ 926,250 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 42,149,600 4,436,800 8,954,400 55,540,800 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 10,537,400 $ 1,109,200 52,687,000 5,546,000 11,193,000 $ 4,077,450 $ $ $ $ $ $ 14,297,188 $ 71,485,938 $ 6,300,000 $ 1,389,375 $ 1,386,500 $ $ $ $ $ 31,500,000 6,946,875 6,932,500 18,949,688 64,329,063 $ $ $ $ $ 11,092,000 3,150,000 1,733,125 5,160,875 21,136,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2,773,000 12,600,000 4,631,250 3,292,938 10,370,438 33,667,625 $ $ $ $ 18,525,000 173,313 6,695,813 25,394,125 $ $ $ $ 18,525,000 173,313 9,786,188 28,484,500 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 7,000,000 5,850,000 5,500,000 8,250,000 1,025,000 5,125,000 4,375,000 37,125,000 $ 3,789,938 $ 12,865,813 $ 2,218,400 $ 630,000 $ 346,625 $ 1,032,175 $ 4,227,200 $ 658,588 $ 2,074,088 $ 6,733,525 14,820,000 138,650 5,356,650 20,315,300 $ 3,705,000 $ 34,663 $ 1,339,163 $ 5,078,825 $ $ $ $ 14,820,000 138,650 7,828,950 22,787,600 $ 3,705,000 $ 34,663 $ 1,957,238 $ 5,696,900 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 5,600,000 4,680,000 4,400,000 6,600,000 820,000 4,100,000 3,500,000 29,700,000 $ 1,400,000 $ 1,170,000 $ 1,100,000 $ 1,650,000 $ 205,000 $ 1,025,000 $ 875,000 $ 7,425,000 $ 165,138,400 $ 72,585,600 $ 66,034,600 $ 303,758,600 $ 29,700,000 $ $ $ $ $ 41,284,600 18,146,400 16,508,650 75,939,650 7,425,000 $ 206,423,000 $ 90,732,000 $ 82,543,250 $ 379,698,250 $ 37,125,000 $ 333,458,600 $ 83,364,650 $ 416,823,250 S ource: Prelim inary estim ates by C arter G oble Associates, Inc. and D M JM D esign, August 2005. 1 Additions to construction cost reported as custom ary level for D FC M projects for professional fees, FF &E, com m unications system , legal, testing, survey, inspections, transition/activation/com m issioning, and design and construction contingency in 2005 present value dollars. A dditions do not include land acqusition, financing costs, inflation, and any unusual site/environm ental conditions or m itigation. Public Review Draft APPENDIX A 9 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Table A-7 Full Replacement: Option 1 Basic at High Construction Cost Estimate (3,968 beds with 4,000-bed support core) F acility M ale M axim u m S ecu rity U n it 1. O perational B eds - 608 S ingle-bunk cells 15x 32+ 8x 16 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 3. S upport C ore B ed D esign C apacity 608 64 na 672 T otal M ale M ed iu m S ecu rity & In take U n it 1. O perational B eds - 854 S ingle-bunked cells - 2x 32 64 D ouble-bunked cells - 10x 32 640 50-bed dorm s - 3x 50 150 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 82 3. S upport C ore na T otal 936 M ale M ed iu m S ecu rity U n it 1. O perational B eds -790 D ouble-bunked cells - 10x 64 640 50-bed dorm s - 3x 50 150 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 80 3. S upport C ore na T otal 870 F o ren sic D iag n o stic & T reatm en t U n it 1. O perational B eds - 192 S ingle-bunked cells 4x 24+ 2x 16 (16fem ) 128 D ouble-bunked cells - 2x 16 64 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 20 3. S upport C ore na T otal 212 W o m en s' U n it 1. O perational B eds - 388 S ingle-bunked cells - 2x 16 32 D ouble-bunked cells - 4x 64 256 D orm s - 2x 50 100 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 38 3. S upport C ore na T otal 426 M ale M in im u m S ecu rity U n it 1 (wk rel) 1. O perational B eds - 8x 50-bed dorm s 400 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 2 3. S upport C ore na T otal 402 M ale M in im u m S ecu rity U n it 2 (T H C ) 1. O perational B eds - 8x 50-bed dorm s 400 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 2 3. S upport C ore na T otal 402 S u p p o rt S ervices F acilities 1. C om plex A dm in/ V isit C enter 4,000 beds 2. C entral K itchen " 3. C linic and 48-bed Infirm ary " 4. Industries C enter " 5. C entral Laundry " 6. W arehouse & M aintenance U nit " 7. C entral P lant " T otal " B uilding G ross S F C onstruction C ost/ S F 179,360 18,880 43,680 241,920 $ $ $ 18,880 112,000 28,500 24,190 79,560 263,130 $ $ $ $ $ 112,000 28,500 23,600 73,950 238,050 $ $ $ $ 37,760 11,200 5,900 20,140 75,000 $ $ $ $ 9,440 44,800 19,000 11,210 40,470 124,920 $ $ $ $ $ 76,000 590 26,130 102,720 $ $ $ 76,000 590 38,190 114,780 $ $ $ 32,000 24,000 20,000 40,000 4,000 20,000 10,000 150,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ C o m p lex S u b to tal O perational B eds Infirm ary & S pecial M gt. B eds (48+288) U nit S upport C ores T otal A ll U nits C entralized S upport S erv ices F acilities 3,632 336 na 3,968 753,440 84,960 322,120 1,160,520 150,000 C o m p lex G ran d T o tal 3,968 1,310,520 290 345 180 290 285 180 345 180 285 180 345 180 290 285 345 180 290 285 180 345 180 180 345 180 180 345 180 165 315 250 160 165 125 1,170 $ 290 T otal C onst. C ost P roject C osts 1 @ 25% E stim ated 1 C ost $ 1,965,600 $ $ $ $ 16,597,600 $ 82,988,000 5,475,200 31,920,000 5,130,000 8,345,550 14,320,800 65,191,550 $ 1,368,800 $ 7,980,000 $ 1,282,500 $ 2,086,388 6,844,000 39,900,000 6,412,500 10,431,938 17,901,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 52,014,400 6,513,600 7,862,400 66,390,400 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 13,003,600 $ 1,628,400 65,018,000 8,142,000 9,828,000 $ 3,580,200 $ $ $ $ $ $ 16,297,888 $ 81,489,438 31,920,000 5,130,000 8,142,000 13,311,000 58,503,000 $ 7,980,000 $ 1,282,500 $ 2,035,500 $ $ $ $ $ 39,900,000 6,412,500 10,177,500 16,638,750 73,128,750 $ $ $ $ $ 10,950,400 3,192,000 2,035,500 3,625,200 19,803,100 $ $ $ $ $ 13,688,000 3,990,000 2,544,375 4,531,500 24,753,875 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2,737,600 12,768,000 3,420,000 3,867,450 7,284,600 30,077,650 $ $ $ $ $ $ 3,422,000 15,960,000 4,275,000 4,834,313 9,105,750 37,597,063 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 17,100,000 254,438 5,879,250 23,233,688 $ $ $ $ 17,100,000 254,438 8,592,750 25,947,188 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 6,600,000 9,450,000 6,250,000 8,000,000 825,000 3,125,000 14,625,000 48,875,000 $ 3,327,750 $ 14,625,750 $ 2,737,600 $ 798,000 $ 508,875 $ 906,300 $ 4,950,775 $ 684,400 $ 3,192,000 $ 855,000 $ 966,863 $ 1,821,150 $ 7,519,413 13,680,000 203,550 4,703,400 18,586,950 $ 3,420,000 $ 50,888 $ 1,175,850 $ 4,646,738 $ $ $ $ 13,680,000 203,550 6,874,200 20,757,750 $ 3,420,000 $ 50,888 $ 1,718,550 $ 5,189,438 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 5,280,000 7,560,000 5,000,000 6,400,000 660,000 2,500,000 11,700,000 39,100,000 $ 1,320,000 $ 1,890,000 $ 1,250,000 $ 1,600,000 $ 165,000 $ 625,000 $ 2,925,000 $ 9,775,000 $ 192,017,600 $ 90,871,200 $ 57,981,600 $ 340,870,400 $ 39,100,000 $ $ $ $ $ 48,004,400 22,717,800 14,495,400 85,217,600 9,775,000 $ 240,022,000 $ 113,589,000 $ 72,477,000 $ 426,088,000 $ 48,875,000 $ 379,970,400 $ 94,992,600 $ 474,963,000 S ource: P relim inary estim ates by C arter G oble A ssociates, Inc. and D M JM D esign, A ugust 2005. 1 A dditions to construction cost reported as custom ary level for D FC M projects for professional fees, FF & E , com m unications system , legal, testing, survey, inspections, transition/activation/com m issioning, and design and construction contingency in 2005 present value dollars. A dditions do not include land acqusition, financing costs, inflation, and any unusual site/environm ental conditions or m itigation. Public Review Draft Carter Goble Associates 10 Option 2: Full Replacement with Expanded Support Core – A second set of estimates was made in Tables A-8 through A-10 for building the replacement complex to include both an oversize internal support core at each facility and for the centralized support functions and services that would enable the addition of beds up to 6,000 rather than the 4,000-bed limit in the first set of estimates. These estimates provide for a strategy that is common in building new prisons in the 21st century.3 As was already explained at the beginning of this chapter, the primary benefit of building oversized support core spaces for a prison today is simple economics. Since prisons are relatively heavy and complex structures, unlike a warehouse, factory shell or office building, making modifications in the future after initial construction is relatively complex and expensive since secure wall construction and security electronics and communications systems must usually be altered with some demolition likely. It is important to remember that the estimates for both options are for construction related costs only and do not represent what might be the State’s total capital project cost. As noted earlier there will be additional costs such as future years’ inflation at the time the project is actually bid; financing costs depending on the State’s preferred financing method; site acquisition; and the possibility of extraordinary site development and environmental conditions mitigation. Such costs can only be accurately estimated with detailed investigations of a specific site and the development of a schematic design for that site. Preliminary estimates for some of the probable additional one-time cost items and changes in recurring annual cost items attributable to relocation are included later in this chapter under the heading “Additional Project Costs.” Also, by purchasing prison support function spaces and centralized services spaces that will be needed in the future with today’s dollars instead of with future dollars further savings results over the long-term and for future generations of taxpayers. By building a Draper replacement today with 3,968 beds, but with internal facility support core spaces and the centralized complex support functions large enough for 6,000 beds instead of 4,000 beds only housing building would need to be added in the future for the next 2,000 beds of growth. Today’s total construction costs will obviously be much higher than for Option 1 due to the larger support capacity, but that investment will be less than the State would pay in the future for adding 2,000 beds if the support spaces also have to be added at that time. The preliminary estimates for Option 2 “Expanded Support Core Replacement” as detailed in Tables A-8 through A-10 and rounded to the nearest hundred thousand dollars are: 3,968 Beds with Expanded 6,000-Bed Support Core Moderate Low High 3 See $484,500,000 $476,900,000 $543,900,000 Appendix section on “Exemplary Prisons Space Standard Sizes.” Public Review Draft APPENDIX A 11 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Table A-8 Full Replacement: Option 2 Expanded at Moderate Construction Cost Estimate (3,968 beds with 6,000-bed support core) Facility M ale M axim um Security Unit 1. O perational Beds - 608 Single-bunk cells 15x32+8x16 2. Special M gt. Cells 3. Support Core Bed Design Capacity 608 64 na 672 Total M ale M edium Security & Intake Unit 1. O perational Beds - 854 Single-bunked cells - 2x32 64 Double-bunked cells - 10x32 640 50-bed dorm s - 3x50 150 2. Special M gt. Cells 82 3. Support Core na Total 936 M ale M edium Security Unit 1. O perational Beds -790 Double-bunked cells - 10x64 640 50-bed dorm s - 3x50 150 2. Special M gt. Cells 80 3. Support Core na Total 870 Forensic Diagnostic & T reatm ent Unit 1. O perational Beds - 192 Single-bunked cells 4x24+2x16 (16fem ) 128 Double-bunked cells - 2x16 64 2. Special M gt. Cells 20 3. Support Core na Total 212 W om ens' Unit 1. O perational Beds - 388 Single-bunked cells - 2x16 32 Double-bunked cells - 4x64 256 Dorm s - 2x50 100 2. Special M gt. Cells 38 3. Support Core na Total 426 M ale M inim um Security Unit 1 1. O perational Beds - 8x50-bed dorm s 400 2. Special M gt. Cells 2 3. Support Core na Total 402 M ale M inim um Security Unit 2 1. O perational Beds - 8x50-bed dorm s 400 2. Special M gt. Cells 2 3. Support Core na Total 402 Support Services Facilities 1. Com plex Adm in/ Visit Center 6,000 beds 2. Central Kitchen " 3. Clinic and 48-bed Infirm ary " 4. Industries Center " 5. Central Laundry " 6. W arehouse & M aintenance Unit " 7. Central Plant " Total " Building G ross SF Construct Cost/ SF 212,800 18,560 77,280 308,640 $ $ $ 22,400 112,000 28,500 23,780 112,320 299,000 $ $ $ $ $ 112,000 28,500 23,200 104,400 268,100 $ $ $ $ 44,800 11,200 5,800 26,500 88,300 $ $ $ $ 11,200 44,800 19,000 11,020 53,250 139,270 $ $ $ $ $ 76,000 580 44,220 120,800 $ $ $ 76,000 580 50,250 126,830 $ $ $ 48,000 36,000 30,000 60,000 6,000 30,000 12,000 222,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Com plex Subtotal O perational Beds Infirm ary & Special M gt. Beds (48+288) Unit Support Cores Total All Units Support Serv ices Facilities 3,632 336 na 3,968 799,200 83,520 468,220 1,350,940 222,000 Com plex G rand T otal 3,968 1,572,940 $ 235 235 205 235 225 195 235 205 225 195 235 205 235 225 235 205 235 225 195 235 205 195 235 205 195 235 205 175 195 220 165 205 205 350 246 Total Const. Cost Project Cost 1 @ 25% Estim ated 1 Cost $ 3,960,600 $ $ $ $ 17,553,000 $ 87,765,000 5,264,000 25,200,000 5,557,500 5,588,300 23,025,600 64,635,400 $ 1,316,000 $ 6,300,000 $ 1,389,375 $ 1,397,075 6,580,000 31,500,000 6,946,875 6,985,375 28,782,000 $ $ $ $ $ 25,200,000 5,557,500 5,452,000 21,402,000 57,611,500 $ $ $ $ $ 10,528,000 2,520,000 1,363,000 5,432,500 19,843,500 $ $ $ $ $ $ 2,632,000 10,080,000 3,705,000 2,589,700 10,916,250 29,922,950 $ $ $ $ 14,820,000 136,300 9,065,100 24,021,400 $ $ $ $ 14,820,000 136,300 10,301,250 25,257,550 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 8,400,000 7,020,000 6,600,000 9,900,000 1,230,000 6,150,000 4,200,000 43,500,000 $ $ $ $ 50,008,000 4,361,600 15,842,400 70,212,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 12,502,000 $ 1,090,400 62,510,000 5,452,000 19,803,000 $ 5,756,400 $ $ $ $ $ $ 16,158,850 $ 80,794,250 $ 6,300,000 $ 1,389,375 $ 1,363,000 $ $ $ $ $ 31,500,000 6,946,875 6,815,000 26,752,500 72,014,375 $ $ $ $ $ 13,160,000 3,150,000 1,703,750 6,790,625 24,804,375 $ $ $ $ $ $ 3,290,000 12,600,000 4,631,250 3,237,125 13,645,313 37,403,688 $ $ $ $ 18,525,000 170,375 11,331,375 30,026,750 $ $ $ $ 18,525,000 170,375 12,876,563 31,571,938 10,500,000 8,775,000 8,250,000 12,375,000 1,537,500 7,687,500 5,250,000 54,375,000 $ 5,350,500 $ 14,402,875 $ 2,632,000 $ 630,000 $ 340,750 $ 1,358,125 $ 4,960,875 $ 658,000 $ 2,520,000 $ 926,250 $ 647,425 $ 2,729,063 $ 7,480,738 $ 3,705,000 $ 34,075 $ 2,266,275 $ 6,005,350 $ 3,705,000 $ 34,075 $ 2,575,313 $ 6,314,388 $ 2,100,000 $ 1,755,000 $ 1,650,000 $ 2,475,000 $ 1,050,000 $ 10,875,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 175,892,000 $ 72,247,200 $ 95,985,100 $ 344,124,300 $ 43,500,000 $ $ $ $ $ 43,973,000 18,061,800 23,996,275 86,031,075 10,875,000 $ 219,865,000 $ 90,309,000 $ 119,981,375 $ 430,155,375 $ 54,375,000 $ 387,624,300 $ 96,906,075 $ 484,530,375 $ 307,500 $ 1,537,500 Source: Prelim inary estim ates by Carter G oble Associates, Inc. and DM JM Design, August 2005. 1 Additions to construction cost reported as custom ary level for DFCM projects for professional fees, FF&E, com m unications system , legal, testing, survey, inspections, transition/activation/com m issioning, and design and construction contingency in 2005 present value dollars. Additions do not include land acqusition, financing costs, inflation, and any unusual site/environm ental conditions or m itigation. Public Review Draft Carter Goble Associates 12 Table A-9 Full Replacement: Option 2 Expanded at Low Construction Cost Estimate (3,968 beds with 6,000-bed support core) F acility M ale M axim um S ecu rity U nit 1. O perational B eds - 608 S ingle-bunk cells 15x 32+8x 16 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 3. S upport C ore B ed D esign C apacity 608 64 na 672 T otal M ale M ediu m S ecurity & In take U n it 1. O perational B eds - 854 S ingle-bunked cells - 2x 32 64 D ouble-bunked cells - 10x 32 640 50-bed dorm s - 3x 50 150 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 82 3. S upport C ore na T otal 936 M ale M ediu m S ecurity U nit 1. O perational B eds -790 D ouble-bunked cells - 10x 64 640 50-bed dorm s - 3x 50 150 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 80 3. S upport C ore na T otal 870 F o ren sic D iag no stic & T reatm ent U nit 1. O perational B eds - 192 S ingle-bunked cells 4x 24+ 2x 16 (16fem ) 128 D ouble-bunked cells - 2x 16 64 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 20 3. S upport C ore na T otal 212 W om ens' U n it 1. O perational B eds - 388 S ingle-bunked cells - 2x 16 32 D ouble-bunked cells - 4x 64 256 D orm s - 2x 50 100 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 38 3. S upport C ore na T otal 426 M ale M in im um S ecu rity U n it 1 1. O perational B eds - 8x 50-bed dorm s 400 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 2 3. S upport C ore na T otal 402 M ale M in im um S ecu rity U n it 2 1. O perational B eds - 8x 50-bed dorm s 400 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 2 3. S upport C ore na T otal 402 S u pp o rt S ervices Facilities 1. C om plex A dm in/ V isit C enter 6,000 beds 2. C entral K itchen " 3. C linic and 48-bed Infirm ary " 4. Industries C enter " 5. C entral Laundry " 6. W arehouse & M aintenance U nit " 7. C entral P lant " T otal " B uilding G ross S F C onstruct C ost/ S F 212,800 18,560 77,280 308,640 $ $ $ 22,400 112,000 28,500 23,780 112,320 299,000 $ $ $ $ $ 112,000 28,500 23,200 104,400 268,100 $ $ $ $ 44,800 11,200 5,800 26,500 88,300 $ $ $ $ 11,200 44,800 19,000 11,020 53,250 139,270 $ $ $ $ $ 76,000 580 44,220 120,800 $ $ $ 76,000 580 50,250 126,830 $ $ $ 48,000 36,000 30,000 60,000 6,000 30,000 12,000 222,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ C om plex S ub total O perational B eds Infirm ary & S pecial M gt. B eds (48+288) U nit S upport C ores T otal A ll U nits Support S erv ices F acilities 3,632 336 na 3,968 799,200 83,520 468,220 1,350,940 222,000 C o m p lex G ran d T otal 3,968 1,572,940 $ 275 275 150 275 275 175 275 150 275 175 275 150 275 275 275 150 275 275 175 275 150 175 275 150 175 275 150 120 150 200 125 150 110 250 243 T otal C onst. C ost P roject C ost 1 @ 25% E stim ated 1 C ost $ 2,898,000 $ $ $ $ 18,804,000 $ 94,020,000 6,160,000 30,800,000 4,987,500 6,539,500 16,848,000 65,335,000 $ 1,540,000 $ 7,700,000 $ 1,246,875 $ 1,634,875 7,700,000 38,500,000 6,234,375 8,174,375 21,060,000 $ $ $ $ $ 30,800,000 4,987,500 6,380,000 15,660,000 57,827,500 $ $ $ $ $ 12,320,000 3,080,000 1,595,000 3,975,000 20,970,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 3,080,000 12,320,000 3,325,000 3,030,500 7,987,500 29,743,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 58,520,000 5,104,000 11,592,000 75,216,000 $ 14,630,000 $ 1,276,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 73,150,000 6,380,000 14,490,000 $ 4,212,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 16,333,750 $ 81,668,750 $ 7,700,000 $ 1,246,875 $ 1,595,000 $ $ $ $ $ 38,500,000 6,234,375 7,975,000 19,575,000 72,284,375 $ $ $ $ $ 15,400,000 3,850,000 1,993,750 4,968,750 26,212,500 $ $ $ $ $ $ 3,850,000 15,400,000 4,156,250 3,788,125 9,984,375 37,178,750 $ $ $ $ 16,625,000 199,375 8,291,250 25,115,625 $ $ $ $ 16,625,000 199,375 9,421,875 26,246,250 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 7,200,000 6,750,000 7,500,000 9,375,000 1,125,000 4,125,000 3,750,000 39,825,000 $ 3,915,000 $ 14,456,875 $ 3,080,000 $ 770,000 $ 398,750 $ 993,750 $ 5,242,500 $ 770,000 $ 3,080,000 $ 831,250 $ 757,625 $ 1,996,875 $ 7,435,750 13,300,000 159,500 6,633,000 20,092,500 $ 3,325,000 $ 39,875 $ 1,658,250 $ 5,023,125 $ $ $ $ 13,300,000 159,500 7,537,500 20,997,000 $ 3,325,000 $ 39,875 $ 1,884,375 $ 5,249,250 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 5,760,000 5,400,000 6,000,000 7,500,000 900,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 31,860,000 $ 1,440,000 $ 1,350,000 $ 1,500,000 $ 1,875,000 $ 225,000 $ 825,000 $ 750,000 $ 7,965,000 $ 196,980,000 $ 82,468,000 $ 70,233,000 $ 349,681,000 $ 31,860,000 $ $ $ $ $ 49,245,000 20,617,000 17,558,250 87,420,250 7,965,000 $ 246,225,000 $ 103,085,000 $ 87,791,250 $ 437,101,250 $ 39,825,000 $ 381,541,000 $ 95,385,250 $ 476,926,250 S ource: P relim inary estim ates by C arter G oble A ssociates, Inc. and D M JM D esign, August 2005. 1 Additions to construction cost reported as custom ary level for D FCM projects for professional fees, FF&E, com m unications system , legal, testing, survey, inspections, transition/activation/com m issioning, and design and construction contingency in 2005 present value dollars. Additions do not include land acqusition, financing costs, inflation, and any unusual site/environm ental conditions or m itigation. Public Review Draft APPENDIX A 13 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Table A-10 Full Replacement: Option 2 Expanded at High Construction Cost Estimate (3,968 beds with 6,000-bed support core) F acility M ale M axim u m S ecu rity U n it 1. O perational B eds - 608 S ingle-bunk cells 15x 32+ 8x 16 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 3. S upport C ore B ed D esign C apacity 608 64 na 672 T otal M ale M ed iu m S ecu rity & In take U n it 1. O perational B eds - 854 S ingle-bunked cells - 2x 32 64 D ouble-bunked cells - 10x 32 640 50-bed dorm s - 3x 50 150 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 82 3. S upport C ore na T otal 936 M ale M ed iu m S ecu rity U n it 1. O perational B eds -790 D ouble-bunked cells - 10x 64 640 50-bed dorm s - 3x 50 150 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 80 3. S upport C ore na T otal 870 F o ren sic D iag n o stic & T reatm en t U n it 1. O perational B eds - 192 S ingle-bunked cells 4x 24+ 2x 16 (16fem ) 128 D ouble-bunked cells - 2x 16 64 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 20 3. S upport C ore na T otal 212 W o m en s' U n it 1. O perational B eds - 388 S ingle-bunked cells - 2x 16 32 D ouble-bunked cells - 4x 64 256 D orm s - 2x 50 100 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 38 3. S upport C ore na T otal 426 M ale M in im u m S ecu rity U n it 1 (wk rel) 1. O perational B eds - 8x 50-bed dorm s 400 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 2 3. S upport C ore na T otal 402 M ale M in im u m S ecu rity U n it 2 (T H C ) 1. O perational B eds - 8x 50-bed dorm s 400 2. S pecial M gt. C ells 2 3. S upport C ore na T otal 402 S u p p o rt S ervices F acilities 1. C om plex A dm in & V isit C enter 6,000 beds 2. C entral K itchen " 3. C linic and 48-bed Infirm ary " 4. Industries C enter " 5. C entral Laundry " 6. W arehouse & M aintenance U nit " 7. C entral P lant " T otal " B uilding G ross S F C onstruct C ost/ S F 212,800 18,560 77,280 308,640 $ $ $ 22,400 112,000 28,500 23,780 112,320 299,000 $ $ $ $ $ 112,000 28,500 23,200 104,400 268,100 $ $ $ $ 44,800 11,200 5,800 26,500 88,300 $ $ $ $ 11,200 44,800 19,000 11,020 53,250 139,270 $ $ $ $ $ 76,000 580 44,220 120,800 $ $ $ 76,000 580 50,250 126,830 $ $ $ 48,000 36,000 30,000 60,000 6,000 30,000 12,000 222,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ C o m p lex S u b to tal O perational B eds Infirm ary & S pecial M gt. B eds (48+288) U nit S upport C ores T otal A ll U nits Support S erv ices F acilities 3,632 336 na 3,968 799,200 83,520 468,220 1,350,940 222,000 C o m p lex G ran d T o tal 3,968 1,572,940 290 345 180 290 285 180 345 180 285 180 345 180 290 285 345 180 290 285 180 345 180 180 345 180 180 345 180 165 315 250 160 165 125 1,170 $ 277 T otal C onst. C ost P roject C ost 1 @ 25% E stim ated 1 C ost $ 3,477,600 $ $ $ $ 20,506,400 $ 102,532,000 6,496,000 31,920,000 5,130,000 8,204,100 20,217,600 71,967,700 $ 1,624,000 $ 7,980,000 $ 1,282,500 $ 2,051,025 8,120,000 39,900,000 6,412,500 10,255,125 25,272,000 $ $ $ $ $ 31,920,000 5,130,000 8,004,000 18,792,000 63,846,000 $ $ $ $ $ 12,992,000 3,192,000 2,001,000 4,770,000 22,955,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 3,248,000 12,768,000 3,420,000 3,801,900 9,585,000 32,822,900 $ 812,000 $ 3,192,000 $ 855,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 61,712,000 6,403,200 13,910,400 82,025,600 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 15,428,000 $ 1,600,800 77,140,000 8,004,000 17,388,000 $ 5,054,400 $ $ $ $ $ $ 17,991,925 $ 89,959,625 $ 7,980,000 $ 1,282,500 $ 2,001,000 $ $ $ $ $ 39,900,000 6,412,500 10,005,000 23,490,000 79,807,500 $ $ $ $ $ 16,240,000 3,990,000 2,501,250 5,962,500 28,693,750 $ $ $ $ $ $ 4,060,000 15,960,000 4,275,000 4,752,375 11,981,250 41,028,625 $ $ $ $ 17,100,000 250,125 9,949,500 27,299,625 $ $ $ $ 17,100,000 250,125 11,306,250 28,656,375 9,900,000 14,175,000 9,375,000 12,000,000 1,237,500 4,687,500 17,550,000 68,925,000 256,610,000 112,968,000 105,349,500 474,927,500 68,925,000 $ 4,698,000 $ 15,961,500 $ 3,248,000 $ 798,000 $ 500,250 $ 1,192,500 $ 5,738,750 $ 950,475 $ 2,396,250 $ 8,205,725 13,680,000 200,100 7,959,600 21,839,700 $ 3,420,000 $ 50,025 $ 1,989,900 $ 5,459,925 $ $ $ $ 13,680,000 200,100 9,045,000 22,925,100 $ 3,420,000 $ 50,025 $ 2,261,250 $ 5,731,275 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 7,920,000 11,340,000 7,500,000 9,600,000 990,000 3,750,000 14,040,000 55,140,000 $ 1,980,000 $ 2,835,000 $ 1,875,000 $ 2,400,000 $ 247,500 $ 937,500 $ 3,510,000 $ 13,785,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 205,288,000 $ 90,374,400 $ 84,279,600 $ 379,942,000 $ 55,140,000 $ $ $ $ $ 51,322,000 22,593,600 21,069,900 94,985,500 13,785,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ 435,082,000 $ 108,770,500 $ 543,852,500 S ource: P relim inary estim ates by C arter G oble A ssociates, Inc. and D M JM D esign, August 2005. 1 Additions to construction cost reported as custom ary level for D FC M projects for professional fees, FF&E, com m unications system , legal, testing, survey, inspections, transition/activation/com m issioning, and design and construction contingency in 2005 present value dollars. Additions do not include land acqusition, financing costs, inflation, and any unusual site/environm ental conditions or m itigation. Public Review Draft Carter Goble Associates 14 Partial Replacement out a secure perimeter system. Its replacement could thus be constructed at any suitable location. An option requested for testing by State staff is for the possible “partial replacement” of the Draper Complex. This scenario as suggested by UDOC staff would be to demolish and relocate new facilities only for the current “North Point” section of Draper, which includes Lone Peak, Olympus, Promontory, and Timpanogos. The total bed capacity for replacing these four facilities as shown in the preceding section is 1,458 beds (1,442 housing beds + 16 infirmary beds compared to the existing total count of 1,446 beds). Olympus is a correctional forensic mental health facility and Timpanogos is the system’s all-custody female facility. These two specialized facilities need access to and support from a variety of mental, medical, psychiatric and social work specialists and normally require a higher level of medical services compared to general population prisons. Lone Peak is a pre-release minimum security facility and its replacement should thus not be located inside a higher security complex as these inmates are regularly transported to jobs and work assignments away from the facility every day to give them appropriate transitional conditions and re-entry preparation for their upcoming release. As a substance abuse therapeutic community the replacement of Promontory should be designed for those inmates who achieve eligibility for this type of custody and treatment in low medium to minimum security conditions, primarily with dormitory housing units, but also with a substantial amount of space for programs, treatment services and group activities. Three of these facilities provide vital centralized special functions for the entire UDOC system that make it important to keep them at or near the Draper site since the large South Point compound (2,522 current beds) would remain in this “Partial Replacement” scenario. Also, because of their particular specialized nature (allcustody females, substance abuse intensive treatment, and forensic mental health in-patient diagnostics, treatment and management) they all need ready access to an acute care in-patient hospital, specialized medical services, psychiatric services and counseling specialists available in the Salt Lake City metro area. However, Lone Peak the 4th facility is a minimum custody transitional pre-release facility for inmates nearing the end of their sentence and preparing for free world reentry, which should be located in an open setting with- Third Site Plus Remodel Existing South Point Facilities The UDOC proposed to replace the Olympus, Promontory and Timpanogos functions inside the Draper South Point compound by relocating an equal number of medium security general population male inmates to a new facility at a third location. Thereafter the Oquirrh and Wasatch facilities would be remodeled for the three replacement functions. The equivalent number of medium security males from Oquirrh and Wasatch along with the Lone Peak Pre-Release replacement would be relocated to two new facilities (one medium security and one minimum/community) at a third site elsewhere in Utah because of a stated preference to not increase the size of the Draper complex. For the South Point remodeling to accommodate the three North Point functions the UDOC proposes that it would undertake a relatively limited remodeling project. The remodeling needed should provide the specific treatment and programs oriented spaces needed for these three special needs populations as well as making sure the housing/sleeping areas to be used will be suitable. The relocation of the 1,052 male medium security beds, plus the 402 Lone Peak Pre-Release beds from Draper to a third site in Utah could be done at one site for a total of 1,454-beds. The male medium security facility would be built inside a standard dual fence perimeter security system. The new minimum security PreRelease Facility could be co-located on the same property, but outside the medium security facility’s perimeter system since it would be an open facility with most inmates working, going to school or counseling in the community during the day or other hours if they were employed in shift work. The co-location would provide the obvious cost savings benefits from the shared use of the large medium security facility’s infirmary, kitchen and other major support components thereby avoiding the added cost of duplication if it was on a separate site. For the two new facilities in this “Partial Replacement” option the same cost model principles were used as for the “Full Replacement” model, but altered for the different sizes and the fact that these two would not be part of a large complex with centralized support components. Thus, the results summarized below provide 2005 preliminary present value cost estimates for: (1) the UDOC’s cost estimate to remodel the Draper South Public Review Draft APPENDIX A 15 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Point Complex for 1,052 beds; and (2) the consultant’s estimates for construction of a new 1,052-bed medium security facility, plus a new 402-bed Pre-Release Facility co-located at another location in Utah. Tables A-11 through A-13 show the detail of this cost model’s applications for the low, moderate and high cost range results for the two new facilities proposed in this Partial Replacement option. Partial Replacement Option – Remodel Draper South Point Plus Build Two New Facilities at New Site 1. UDOC Remodel Estimate for 1,052 Beds at Draper South Point* $ TBD 2. Construct Two New Co-located Facilities for 1,052 Medium Security and 402 Pre-Release Moderate Low High $128,000,000 $119,100,000 $131,500,000 Grand Total Construction – 2,506 Beds* Moderate Low High $ TBD $ TBD $ TBD * Cost ranges ranked by Grand Total result from three different estimators. The UDOC budget to remodel Draper South Point must be added to complete this total construction estimate. Table A-11 Partial Replacement Option: 2 New Facilities at Moderate Construction Cost Estimate* (Remodel for 1,052 beds at South Point and Build 1,454 New at a third site) Facility N EW LO C AT IO N M ale Pre-R elease Unit 1 (wk rel) 1. O perational Beds - 8x50-bed dorm s 2. Special M gt. C ells 3. Support Core Total M ale M edium Security U nit 1. O perational Beds - 980 D ouble-bunked cells - 11x64+1x26 50-bed dorm s - 5x50 2. Special M gt. C ells (16 infirm ary+56 SM ) 3. Support Core Total New Location Subtotals O perational Beds Infirm ary & Special M gt. Beds (16+54) Unit Support C ores New Location G rand Totals Bed Design C apacity Building G ross SF C onstruction C ost/ SF 400 2 na 402 76,000 590 64,320 140,910 $ $ $ 730 250 72 na 1,052 127,750 47,500 21,240 152,540 349,030 $ $ $ $ 1,380 74 na 251,250 21,830 216,860 1,454 489,940 195 235 205 225 195 235 205 Total C onst. Cost Project C osts 1 @ 25% $ $ $ $ 14,820,000 138,650 13,185,600 28,144,250 $ 3,705,000 $ 34,663 $ 3,296,400 $ 7,036,063 $ $ $ $ $ 28,743,750 9,262,500 4,991,400 31,270,700 74,268,350 $ 7,185,938 $ 2,315,625 $ 1,247,850 $ 7,817,675 $ 18,567,088 52,826,250 5,130,050 44,456,300 $ 209 $ 102,412,600 $ Estim ated 1 C ost $ $ $ $ 18,525,000 173,313 16,482,000 35,180,313 $ $ $ $ $ 35,929,688 11,578,125 6,239,250 39,088,375 92,835,438 13,206,563 1,282,513 11,114,075 66,032,813 6,412,563 55,570,375 25,603,150 $ 128,015,750 Source: Prelim inary estim ates by Carter G oble Associates, Inc. and DMJM Design, August 2005. 1 Additions to construction cost reported as custom ary level for DFCM projects for professional fees, FF&E, com m unications system , legal, testing, survey, inspections, transition/activation/com m issioning, and design and construction contingency in 2005 present value dollars. Additions do not include land acqusition, financing costs, inflation, and any unusual site/environm ental conditions or m itigation. * The UDO C's proposed budget to rem odel South Point to accom m odate the populations from O lym pus, Tim panogos and Prom ontory need to be added to com pleted the construction cost estim ate for this option. Public Review Draft Carter Goble Associates 16 Table A-12 Partial Replacement Option: 2 New Facilities at Low Construction Cost Estimate* (Remodel for 1,052 beds at South Point and Build 1,454 New at a third site) Bed Design Capacity Facility NEW LOCATION Male Pre-Release Unit 1 (wk rel) 1. Operational Beds - 8x50-bed dorms 2. Special Mgt. Cells 3. Support Core Total Male Medium Security Unit 1. Operational Beds - 980 Double-bunked cells - 11x64+1x26 50-bed dorms - 5x50 2. Special Mgt. Cells (16 infirmary+56 SM) 3. Support Core Total New Location Subtotals Operational Beds Infirmary & Special Mgt. Beds (16+54) Unit Support Cores New Location Grand Totals Building Gross SF Construction Cost/ SF 400 2 na 402 76,000 590 64,320 140,910 $ $ $ 730 250 72 na 1,052 127,750 47,500 21,240 152,540 349,030 $ $ $ $ 1,380 74 na 251,250 21,830 216,860 1,454 489,940 175 275 150 275 175 275 150 Total Const. Cost $ $ $ $ 13,300,000 162,250 9,648,000 23,110,250 $ $ $ $ $ 35,131,250 8,312,500 5,841,000 22,881,000 72,165,750 Project Costs 1 @ 25% $ 3,325,000 $ 40,563 $ 2,412,000 $ 5,777,563 $ 8,782,813 $ 2,078,125 $ 1,460,250 $ 5,720,250 $ 18,041,438 56,743,750 6,003,250 32,529,000 194 $ 95,276,000 $ Estimated 1 Cost $ $ $ $ 16,625,000 202,813 12,060,000 28,887,813 $ $ $ $ $ 43,914,063 10,390,625 7,301,250 28,601,250 90,207,188 14,185,938 1,500,813 8,132,250 70,929,688 7,504,063 40,661,250 23,819,000 $ 119,095,000 Source: Preliminary estimates by Carter Goble Associates, Inc. and DMJM Design, August 2005. 1 Additions to construction cost reported as customary level for DFCM projects for professional fees, FF&E, communications system, legal, testing, survey, inspections, transition/activation/commissioning, and design and construction contingency in 2005 present value dollars. Additions do not include land acqusition, financing costs, inflation, and any unusual site/environmental conditions or mitigation. * The UDOC's proposed budget to remodel South Point to accommodate the populations from Olympus, Timpanogos and Promontory need to be added to completed the construction cost estimate for this option. Table A-13 Partial Replacement Option: 2 New Facilities at High Construction Cost Estimate* (Remodel for 1,052 beds at South Point and Build 1,454 New at a third site) Facility Bed Design Capacity Building Gross SF 400 2 na 402 76,000 590 64,320 140,910 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ NEW LOCATION Male Pre-Release Unit 1 (wk rel) 1. Operational Beds - 8x50-bed dorms 2. Special Mgt. Cells 3. Support Core Total Male Medium Security Unit 1. Operational Beds - 980 Double-bunked cells - 11x64+1x26 50-bed dorms - 5x50 2. Special Mgt. Cells (16 infirmary+56 SM) 3. Support Core Total New Location Subtotals Operational Beds Infirmary & Special Mgt. Beds (16+54) Unit Support Cores 730 250 72 na 1,052 127,750 47,500 21,240 152,540 349,030 1,380 74 na 251,250 21,830 216,860 New Location Grand Totals 1,454 489,940 Construction Cost/ SF 180 345 180 285 180 345 180 Total Const. Cost Project Costs 1 @ 25% 17,100,000 254,438 14,472,000 31,826,438 $ $ 1,831,950 $ 6,864,300 $ 19,935,938 $ 45,510,938 10,687,500 9,159,750 34,321,500 99,679,688 13,680,000 203,550 11,577,600 25,461,150 $ 3,420,000 $ 50,888 $ $ $ $ $ 36,408,750 8,550,000 7,327,800 27,457,200 79,743,750 $ $ $ $ $ $ 58,638,750 7,531,350 39,034,800 215 $ $ 2,894,400 $ 6,365,288 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 105,204,900 $ Estimated 1 Cost 9,102,188 2,137,500 14,659,688 1,882,838 9,758,700 73,298,438 9,414,188 48,793,500 26,301,225 $ 131,506,125 Source: Preliminary estimates by Carter Goble Associates, Inc. and DMJM Design, August 2005. 1 Additions to construction cost reported as customary level for DFCM projects for professional fees, FF&E, communications system, legal, testing, survey, inspections, transition/activation/commissioning, and design and construction contingency in 2005 present value dollars. Additions do not include land acqusition, financing costs, inflation, and any unusual site/environmental conditions or mitigation. * The UDOC's proposed budget to remodel South Point to accommodate the populations from Olympus, Timpanogos and Promontory need to be added to completed the construction cost estimate for this option. Public Review Draft APPENDIX A 17 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah smaller numbers. Those inmates from Uinta and Olympus should be moved in 2005 Present Value Function Cost Estimate smaller numbers with much higher UDOC 5-Person Transition Team 24 months off-line full time (2 sgt/3 CO) labor $416,000 UDOC transition team expenses and consulting assistance expenses $180,000 security conditions Inmate move with 10 secure busses leased at $800/day for 12 days @ 200 miles/bus/day bus lease $96,000 than the general round trip for 6 mpg @ $3/gallon. bus fuel $12,000 UDOC chase/escort cars with 20 @ 200 miles/day for 15 mpg @ $3/gal. car fuel $9,600 population. For UDOC extra drivers & security escort staff - 40 for 12 days (4 sgt/36 CO) labor $73,200 each bus two chase State and local police move escort allowance @ 20 squad cars with two officers each for 12 days at 8 hours per day @ $25/hour/officer plus fuel for 200 miles per car per day for 15 labor $96,000 cars with a driver mpg @ $3/gallon. car fuel $9,600 and armed officer should be assigned. Each bus or van Total $892,400 should have a driver Source: Estimates by Carter Goble Associates, Inc., September 2005. and two armed security escort staff at a minimum and all vehicles would Additional Project Costs need to be equipped with two-way radios and cell phones. State and local police should provide suppleTransition/Activation/Commissioning and Move-in mentary escort during the actual move. A preliminary Irrespective of which relocation option the State may present value cost estimate is summarized in Table Aelect to pursue an additional project cost that would be 20. incurred would be to provide budget for staff and technical assistance time needed for the preparation and Demolition Costs start-up tasks to be completed before a major correcIrrespective of what is done with the Draper site if the tional facility is ready to open and operate at full caprison complex is relocated demolition of the abandoned pacity. Generally, in addition to building systems comfacilities will need to be paid for by either the State or a missioning there are 12 categories of work that include purchaser of the site. A preliminary estimate of what approximately 131 non-construction tasks that need to the total demolition costs might be for clearing the enbe completed by staff (with some outside technical astire site in 2005 present value dollars is approximately sistance if desired) to prepare the staff and the facility $6,601,000. The detail building-by-building computato be ready to operate and move in the inmates on the tion of this estimate is included in the Appendix. desired deadline.4 As suggested in the Appendix guideline approximately five (5) full-time staff should be Other Project Costs detached for a 24-month period to work full-time on It is important to remember that these preliminary esticompleting all tasks. Estimated labor cost at current mates for construction are not based on designs for a salary averages and fringe benefit ratio, plus expenses specific site and thus must be considered preliminary in for a 5-person correctional staff team (2 sergeants, 3 nature and that a specific design for a specific site could C.O.) for a 24-month term is estimated below in 2005 vary substantially beyond the 2005 present value estipresent value dollars. mates herein. The decision as to when to design and Table A-14 Transition/Activation and Move-in Cost Estimate The actual transfer/move-in of inmates will be a substantial effort that will require the use of State and local police in addition to extra DOC transport and security escort staff. For moving approximately 4,000 inmates in a secure and orderly manner 10 full-size secure busses would be leased (MCI or Bluebird) that could seat up to 35 inmates. Assuming 10 vehicle trips a day to the new site should allow 12 days to complete the move since high security inmates will be moved in build will affect the total project cost as to the amount of inflation at the time of bidding the project, plus the State’s selected financing method and costs for such a major project. Site acquisition and the need to build a dedicated water and/or sewage treatment plant are also major cost factors that could increase the total construction and project costs above the estimates in Tables A-5 through A- 4 See Appendix for listing of specific transition/activation tasks to be completed for a successful move-in. Public Review Draft Carter Goble Associates 18 Table A-15 2004 Direct Operating Cost Facility Reception & Orientation Oquirrh Wasatch Uinta Timpanogos Olympus Diagnostic Promontory -1 Lone Peak 2004 ADP 116 813 798 644 546 148 73 330 388 Total Staff FTEs 21.0 93.7 101.7 117.7 67.5 34.3 12.0 36.7 37.3 Labor Non-Labor Total Cost Cost Direct Cost $1,162,200 $50,200 $1,212,400 $4,698,000 $337,600 $5,035,600 $5,290,400 $309,300 $5,599,700 $6,034,600 $338,000 $6,372,600 $3,335,000 $322,400 $3,657,400 $1,757,300 $55,200 $1,812,500 $562,400 $97,900 $660,300 $1,624,399 $145,000 $1,769,399 $1,806,500 $195,300 $2,001,800 Current Draper Complex Operating Costs Since they are the most recent complete fiscal year available, Draper’s fiscal year 2004 operational costs were used as the basis for comparing cost to alternate sites. Financial data at the Draper site is allocated Sub-total 3,857 521.8 $26,270,799 $1,850,900 $28,121,699 by facility except for Cost Per Inmate/Day $18.66 $1.31 $19.98 the special functions of Source: Carter Goble Associates, Inc., August 2005 from data provided by Reception & OrientaUtah Department of Corrections. tion and Diagnostics 10. Neither of these costs is included in the construction since they are provided primarily as a service for the estimates since such costs would need to be estimated for courts. The costs are segregated by two major components, a specific site. Direct Facility Cost and Central Services Cost. Centralized services are costs that benefit the operating facilities and Operating Cost Changes and Other One-Time Costs are allocated to each facility based on Average Daily Population (ADP). The total direct cost excluding overheads An important component of comparing the total cost of and indirect costs of operating the Draper facilities was $28 relocating the Draper complex is to identify changes in million in 2004, or $19.98 per day per inmate. operational costs that may occur either annually or once due to such a major move. As described in the IntroducIt should be noted that Promontory was not in operation tion to this chapter it is the annual recurring operating in 2004, therefore financial data was not available for that expenses that are so critical as over time they will constiyear. Consequently, the costs for Promontory were estitute a much greater tax burden than the one-time conmated based on the UDOC’s similar minimum security struction costs and other related non-recurring project makes up 97% of the total direct cost. Transportation, costs. Several key factors have to be taken into considmedical, mental health, and dental costs are all cost alloeration when comparing the existing site to potential new cated by using ADP. These categories total $14 million sites. The primary operational factors that could have a and add another $10.06 per day per inmate to the operatsignificant cost-change impact of relocation are: 1) transing cost as shown in Table A-16. portation cost, 2) personnel efficiencies gained by a new facilTable A-16 2004 Allocated Centralized Support Services ity, 3) staff relocation expenses, and 4) training and recruiting. Allocated Total Several of these factors would Facility Trans. Cost Medical Mental Health Dental Alloc. Cost $49,020 $287,711 $73,310 $18,457 $428,496 be further impacted by where Reception & Orientation Oquirrh $342,124 $2,008,022 $511,650 $128,814 $2,990,610 the new site is located, and if $335,934 $1,971,691 $502,393 $126,483 $2,936,501 the relocation is full or partial. Wasatch As noted in the tables that follow all financial data used in this analysis was obtained from staff at the Utah Department of Corrections. Uinta Timpanogos Olympus Diagnostic Promontory -1 Lone Peak Sub-total Cost Per Inmate/Day $271,109 $229,777 $62,225 $30,635 $120,451 $163,243 $1,591,214 $1,348,627 $365,214 $179,804 $815,447 $958,122 $405,446 $343,634 $93,058 $45,815 $207,174 $244,132 $1,604,517 $9,525,851 $2,426,611 $610,563 $14,167,541 $1.72 $0.43 $1.14 $6.77 Source: Carter Goble Associates, Inc., August 2005 from data provided by Utah Department of Corrections. Public Review Draft $102,076 $86,514 $23,428 $11,534 $51,794 $61,463 $2,369,844 $2,008,552 $543,925 $267,787 $1,194,865 $1,426,961 $10.06 APPENDIX A 19 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Other Centralized Services that are associated with the Draper complex and the cost for each category is shown in Table A-17. These costs total $43 million, or $30.83 per inmate per day. Table A-17 2004 Other Allocated Centralized Services Central Services Categories: Department Executive Director Department Administration Division Administration Motor Pool Security Food & Laundry Support Costs General Warehouse Inmate Accounting Mail Maintenance Programming planned and budgeted by the UDOC. In current dollars the total operating cost for the next 20 years for the Draper complex with the scheduled improvements would be approximately $1.7 billion assuming all improvement projects were completed. This data provides the basis to make comparisons with alternative sites. $3,274,040 $2,103,497 $5,058,574 $120,424 $12,469,105 $7,696,489 $1,897,252 $765,472 $337,480 $582,589 $4,265,969 $4,828,720 Sub-total $43,399,611 Cost Per Inmate/Day $30.83 GRAND TOTAL $85,688,852 Cost Per Inmate/Day $60.87 Source: Carter Goble Associates, Inc., August 2005 from data provided by Utah Department of Corrections. By adding these three components of Direct Cost, Transportation and Health Care, and other Centralized Services it is found that the total operating cost in 2004 for the Draper complex was $86 million, or $60.87 per day per inmate. Another $21 million above and beyond the operating cost is expected to be spent in the near future at Draper for improvement projects previously Table A-18 Recurring Inmate Transportation Cost Factors Courts Medical Between Draper and CUCF Board Hearings Inmate Placement Program # Inmates 9,390 5,253 1,334 2,110 3,145 Total Less: Medical Adjusted Total 21,232 (5,253) 15,979 1 Miles na 219,085 na na 256,687 787,028 (219,085) 567,943 Source: Carter Goble Associates, Inc. from data received from Utah Department of Corrections, August 2005. 1 Miles do not add due to miles are not tracked for all purposes. Public Review Draft Carter Goble Associates 20 Prisoner Transport Cost Currently the Draper complex generates 21,372 inmate trips a year that total 787,028 miles driven. In 2004 a total of $1.6 million was spent on inmate transportation at the Draper Complex. These trips were generated for the trip purposes summarized in Table A-18. Table A-19 Estimated Recurring Present Value of Inmate Transportation Cost – Full Relocation Relocation Site Additional Miles Per Trip Est. Inmate Trips Requiring Extra Mileage Additional Miles - Maximum Cost Per Mile Additional Cost 20-Year Additional Cost - Present Value Rush Valley Box Elder NE Juab 14 29 39 15,979 9,587 15,979 223,706 278,035 623,181 $2.04 $2.04 $2.04 $456,360 $567,191 $1,271,289 $6,398,816 $7,952,824 $17,825,280 Source: Carter Goble Associates, Inc., August 2005 The average trip is 37 miles and the average cost per mile of these trips was $2.04, derived at by taking the total transportation cost of $1.6 million and dividing it by 787,028 miles. Full Relocation Option Out of the five possible relocation sites three have been identified for a full relocation. They are Rush Valley, Box Elder and Juab. Since these sites are located at very different distances the annual time and distance incurred and thus annual operating cost could vary substantially compared to the cost for the Draper complex. Table A-19 below calculates a range of additional transportation cost to be expected based on these three relocation site possibilities. Using the Draper historical trip records as a basis, and expecting that the average trip length will increase the further away it is from Draper, an incremental transportation cost for a full relocation has been estimated. The number of trips requiring additional miles has been reduced by 40% at the Box Elder option due to the amount of admissions from that area. Medical trip cost estimates were not included since each alternate site considered has a nearby acute care hospital. The maximum number of additional miles would range from 223,706 to 623,181. By multiplying the additional miles by the cost per mile of $2.04, the added incremental cost per year ranges from $.46 million to $.86 million for the three alternate sites. Over a 20 year period the estimated incremental cost in 2005 present value dollars ranges from $6.4 million to $17.8 million for the three sites in addition to the present value of $32 million for 20 years at the Draper complex. Partial Relocation Option Two other sites were added to the list for analyzing the “Partial Relocation” Option; Carbon and Cedar City. In a partial relocation approximately 37% of the inmate population would be moved to the new site. Due to the classification of inmates being relocated no additional transportation costs are anticipated. Personnel Efficiency Gains The staffing needed for inmate housing units is where new facility designs can have the potential to provide some operating cost savings over older facility designs. The consultant examined this potential, but found that significant staff reductions were not likely as the UDOC staffing at the Draper complex is extremely efficient as is. The FY 2004/05 housing officer staff to inmate ratio was 1:7.6 (3,576 ADP ÷ 469 housing officers). The consultant prepared two optional 3-shift staffing concept plans, each with a 7-day 24-hour relief factor of .7 as is currently used by the UDOC. One optional plan was for direct supervision inmate management and the other was for indirect supervision and it was found that neither could afford savings over the UDOC’s 2004/05 housing staff plan for Draper. For the direct supervision model applied to the “Full Replacement” option assuming a 3,920 ADP (all beds full excluding infirmary) a total of 594.2 FTE staff were needed, which yields a staff to inmate ratio of 1:6.7. For the indirect supervision model applied in the same manner a total of 635.0 FTE housing staff were needed, which yields a 1:6.2 staff to inmate ratio. It is thus assumed that the UDOC would continue its same staffing pattern for housing officers even with a new design in order to not require a less efficient staffing pattern. Public Review Draft APPENDIX A 21 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Table A-20 Estimated Present Value One-Time Staff Relocation Costs - Full Relocation One Time Personnel Costs Relocation Site The most recent personnel data at Draper shows that Rush Valley Box Elder NE Juab there is a total staff of 1,087. Total Draper Staff 1,087 1,087 1,087 The salaries and wages of the # of Staff Relocations 85 153 92 staff are not expected to Cost per Relocation $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 vary based on site location $255,600 $459,000 $277,200 Total Relocation Cost since the Utah Department of Corrections’ pay scale does # of Staff to Recruit & Train 519 934 779 not vary geographically. $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 Cost per Employee However, if the new site is 50 Total Recruiting & Training Cost $7,785,000 $14,010,000 $11,685,000 miles or more from Draper Total One Time Staff Costs $8,040,600 $14,469,000 $11,962,200 relocation cost would be exSource: Carter Goble Associates, Inc., August 2005 pected to be incurred by Full Relocation Option State regulation. Utah Department of Corrections’ Table A-20 computes the additional cost of a full relocation policy is to reimburse staff up to $3,000 for relocaof the Draper complex for staff relocations and training and tions that are 50 miles or more. For the personnel recruiting for each potential site being considered in the that did not relocate or commute the Department would incur additional recruiting and training costs study. For Rush Valley it is estimated that 568 staff will be retained and 85% of the retained staff will commute. For to fill the open positions. It is estimated that recruiting and training costs average $15,000 per new Juab it is estimated that 308 staff will be retained and 70% of those staff will commute. employee. The consultant used the addresses of the current staff to calculate the distance from their current residence to the proposed sites. Estimating that the staff retention percentage would vary based on the distance of the new location from their residence; the following retention percentages were estimated: (1) 0-25 miles = 50%; (2) 25-50 miles = 25%; and (3) >50 miles = 10%. The incremental costs for a “Full Relocation” Option for staff moving expenses and recruiting and training are estimated to range from $8 million to $14.5 million. These costs would be incurred one time, only in the year of the relocation. Partial Relocation Option Table A-21 uses the same methodology as above to estimate the incremental costs for staff relocations and training and recruiting for a “Partial Relocation” of the Draper complex. Table A-21 Estimated Present Value One-Time Staff Relocation Costs - Partial Relocation Relocation Site Draper Staff at New Site # of Staff Relocations Cost per Relocation Total Relocation Cost # of Staff to Recruit & Train Cost per Employee Total Recruiting & Training Cost Total One Time Staff Costs Rush Valley Box Elder 400 400 30 40 $3,000 $3,000 $90,000 $120,000 200 $15,000 $3,000,000 $3,090,000 360 $15,000 $5,400,000 $5,520,000 Source: Carter Goble Associates, Inc., August 2005 Public Review Draft NE Juab 400 30 $3,000 $90,000 300 $15,000 $4,500,000 $4,590,000 Enoch/ Carbon Cedar City 400 400 40 40 $3,000 $3,000 $120,000 $120,000 360 $15,000 $5,400,000 $5,520,000 360 $15,000 $5,400,000 $5,520,000 Carter Goble Associates 22 Again, Carbon and Cedar City have been added to the analysis since they are both additional possible site locations in a partial relocation. The incremental costs in a partial relocation for staff moving expenses and recruiting and training are estimated to range from $3.1 million to $5.5 million. Summary Full Relocation Option The total estimated 2005 present value operating and one time costs for the full replacement of the Draper complex over a 20 year period is estimated to range from a cost decrease of $6.6 million to an increase of $8.8 million depending on the site location. The scheduled Draper complex improvements of $21 million have been deducted from the incremental costs since these expenditures would not be made. Table A-22 summarizes the operating cost increases for each site. Table A-22 Summary of Operating Cost Changes – Full Replacement Relocation Site Rush Valley Recurring Costs Inmate Transportation Cost Sub-total - Recurring Cost 20-Year Additional Cost - Present Value One Time Costs One Time Staff Relocation Cost One Time Recruiting & Training Cost Sub-total - One Time Cost Total 20-Year Additional Cost - Present Value Less: Scheduled Draper Improvements Net 20-Year Cost Increase - Present Value $456,360 $456,360 $6,398,816 $255,600 $7,785,000 $8,040,600 $14,439,416 $21,000,000 -$6,560,584 Source: Carter Goble Associates, Inc., September 2005 Public Review Draft Box Elder NE Juab $567,191 $1,271,289 $567,191 $1,271,289 $7,952,824 $17,825,280 $459,000 $14,010,000 $14,469,000 $22,421,824 $21,000,000 $1,421,824 $277,200 $11,685,000 $11,962,200 $29,787,480 $21,000,000 $8,787,480 APPENDIX A 23 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Appendices • • • • Draper Demolition Preliminary Cost Estimates New Correctional Facility Transition/Activation Tasks Exemplary Prisons Space Standard Sizes Square Footage Space Estimators Public Review Draft Carter Goble Associates 24 Draper Demolition Preliminary Cost Estimates BUILDING NAME ADDRESS CONST DATE SQ.FT Cost per SF Estimated Demolition Cost WASATCH Housing Housing Housing Housing Housing Housing Housing Housing Housing Housing Housing Housing WASATCH ADMIN WASATCH VISITING WASATCH A BLOCK WASATCH B BLOCK WASATCH-B-NORTH BLOCK WASATCH C BLOCK WASATCH D BLOCK WASATCH GYM WASATCH CRO OFFICE WASATCH DENTAL WASATCH DIAGNOSTIC WASATCH CORRIDOR Subtotal Housing Programs WASATCH INFIRMARY Programs WASATCH CHAPEL Programs WASATCH LIBRARY Subtotal Programs Support WASATCH HVAC SHOP Support WASATCH CULUNARY Support WASATCH LAUNDRY Support WASATCH BOILER ROOM Support WASATCH PIPE FITTERS STORAGE SHOP (DOG HOUSE) Subtotal Support Wasatch Grand Total SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT 1948 1948 1951 1951 1951 1977 1951 1951 1951 1951 1951 1951 SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT 1976 1961 1951 SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT 1993 1951 1951 1951 1980 9,408 3,430 25,046 16,128 7,440 19,488 16,128 7,622 840 10,675 16,368 7,840 140,413 20,585 5,462 2,520 28,567 1,612 27,156 4,116 7,406 264 40,554 209,534 $10.00 $2,095,340 14,246 15,600 4,200 9,714 9,714 9,714 9,714 35,600 108,502 6,672 6,672 115,174 $8.50 $978,979 16,100 16,100 208 208 16,308 $6.00 $97,848 5,250 36,608 29,420 27,944 29,420 23,751 15,040 167,433 $7.00 $1,172,031 OQUIRRH Housing Housing housing Housing Housing Housing Housing Housing OQUIRRH ADMINISTRATION OQUIRRH GYM OQUIRRH VISITING OQUIRRH 1 DORM OQUIRRH 2 DORM OQUIRRH 3 DORM OQUIRRH 4 DORM OQUIRRH 5 DORMS Subtotal Housing Programs OQUIRRH CHAPEL Subtotal Programs Oquirrh Grand Total SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT 1967 1967 1967 1987 1987 1987 1987 1967 SOUTH POINT 1980 SSD DORMS Housing SSD DORMS Subtotal Housing Programs SSD HOBBY CRAFT Subtotal Programs SSD Grand Total SOUTH POINT 1959 SOUTH POINT 1970 UINTA Housing Housing Housing Housing Housing Housing UINTA ADMIN UINTA 1 UINTA 2 UINTA 3 UINTA 4 UINTA 5 UINTA SUPPORT Unita Grand Total SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT Public Review Draft 1987 1987 1998 1987 1998 1968 1987 APPENDIX A 25 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Draper Demolition Preliminary Cost Estimates (continued) BUILDING NAME ADDRESS CONST DATE SQ.FT Cost per SF Estimated Demolition Cost TIMPANOGOS Housing Housing Housing Housing Programs Programs Programs Programs Support Support TIMPANOGOS ADMIN.CENTER BUILDING 6 TIMPANOGOS STAR 1 TIMPANOGOS STAR 2 TIMPANOGOS STAR 3 TIMPANOGOS STAR 4 Subtotal Housing TIMPANOGOS CHAPEL TIMPANOGOS BUILD 5 AUTO VT TIMPANOGOS BUILD 5 GYM TIMPANOGOS BUILD 5 BUILDING VT Subtotal Programs TIMPANOGOS BUILD 5 MAINTENANCE TIMPANOGOS BUILD 5 CULINARY Subtotal Support Timpanogos Grand Total OLYMPUS Housing HOUSING MODULAR (OLY) Subtotal NORTH POINT NORTH POINT NORTH POINT NORTH POINT NORTH POINT 1983 1983 1983 1983 1983 NORTH POINT NORTH POINT NORTH POINT NORTH POINT 1997 1983 1983 1983 NORTH POINT NORTH POINT 1983 1983 NORTH POINT NORTH POINT 1985 1993 21,493 17,656 17,656 17,656 17,656 92,117 5,850 3,144 6,335 8,721 24,050 2,229 9,855 12,084 128,251 $7.00 $897,757 36,560 2,662 39,222 $7.00 $274,554 PROMONTORY NORTH POINT 1995 65,000 $5.00 $325,000 LONE PEAK NORTH POINT 2000 37,500 $3.00 $112,500 SOUTH POINT DRAPER SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT DRAPER DRAPER OLY DRAPER DRAPER DRAPER DRAPER DRAPER DRAPER DRAPER DRAPER DRAPER DRAPER 1966 1957 1960 1981 1995 1997 1998 1984 1944 1957 1960 1958 1950 1957 1981 1981 1957 10,560 96 25,900 21,563 9,072 15,147 5,200 3,210 6,350 8,843 3,192 6,449 1,600 1,800 5,000 9,856 1248 135,086 $3.00 $405,258 7,668 2,556 924 1,904 1,704 324 600 15,680 $3.00 $47,040 UTAH CORRECTIONAL INDUSTRIES Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs UCI SIGN SHOP UCI FLAMMABLE UCI PLATE PLANT UCI FURNATURE SHOP UCI MODULAR SHOWROOM UCI PRODUCTION BUILDING (SEWING) UCI VT SEWING (BURNS BUILDING) UCI WAREHOUSE UCI STORAGE UCI MILK PROCESSING PLANT UCI DAIRY BARN UCI MEAT PROCESSING UCI HOG SHELTER UCI FARM STORAGE UCI FARM STORAGE (QUONSET HUT) UCI AQUACULTURE BUILDING UCI NORTH LOUNGE SHED UCI Grand Total MISCELLANEOUS PROGRAMS Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs Programs VT MODULAR EDUCTION MODULAR (2) EDUCTIONAL MODULAR (OLY) MENTAL HEALTH MODULAR (OLY) NORTH POINT MODULAR CLASS-ROOM GREEN HOUSE CARWASH Grand Total Misc. Programs NORTH POINT NORTH POINT NORTH POINT NORTH POINT NORTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT Public Review Draft 1996 1993 1993 1994 1987 1980 1983 Carter Goble Associates 26 Draper Demolition Preliminary Cost Estimates (continued) BUILDING NAME ADDRESS CONST DATE SQ.FT Cost per SF Estimated Demolition Cost SUPPORT Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support FILE STORAGE BUILDING PROPERTY WAREHOUSE/TOWER 7 ENTRANCE GUARD HOUSE TOWER 1 VCC TOWER 2 TOWER 3 TOWER 4 TOWER 5 NEW VDS OLD VDS NORTH GATE HOUSE CONTROL TOWER/TRANSPORATION MAINTENANCE CARPENTER SHOP MAINTENANCE PLUMBING SHOP #1 MAINTENANCE PLUMBING SHOP #2 CENTRAL MAINTENANCE MAINTENANCE CAR PORT SWAT TRAINING BUILDING LITTLE WILLOW PUMP HOUSE FLAMMABLE STORAGE CENTRAL WAREHOUSE DOG KENNEL SWAT KITCHEN GEO THERMAL WELL PUMP HOUSE WARDENS ADMINSTRATION BUILDING MOTOR-POOL GARAGE SWAT GARAGE Grand Total Support DRAPER NORTH POINT NORTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT SOUTH POINT 2001 1983 1996 1951 1985 1951 1951 1951 1951 1998 1981 1986 1984 1957 1958 1958 1958 1985 1957 1976 1980 1980 1981 1982 1984 1984 1987 1996 GRAND TOTAL ALL FACILITIES Support Support Support Support Support Support Support Support POWER SUBSTATION UDC ADMINSTRATION BUILDING FRED HOUSE TRAINING ACADEMY PUMP HOUSE MAINT.GARAGE/ARMORY TRAINING ACADEMY MODULAR #2 TRAINING ACADEMY MODULAR #1 S.L. COUNTY WATER CONSERVANCY PUMP HOUSE Total of buildings not included in replacement 2,500 10,640 1,600 140 2100 70 70 70 70 200 288 1,020 4,100 2,460 260 375 11,832 4,968 3,784 98 1,026 22,625 625 1,575 390 11,407 7,500 1,681 93,474 1,022,662 DRAPER DRAPER TRAINING TRAINING TRAINING TRAINING TRAINING TRAINING 1985 2001 1985 1985 1985 1996 1996 1981 800 61,080 26000 304 720 1036 1036 361 91,337 Note: Shade cells excluded from the estimate based upon assumption that these facilities will remain in place. Public Review Draft $4.00 $373,896 $6,780,203 APPENDIX A 27 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah New Correctional Facility Transition/Activation Tasks 1. TRANSITION TEAM 1. Confirm Transition Team Approval, Authority, Composition and Funding 2. Select Transition Coordinator 3. Finalize Job Description for Transition Coordinator 4. Assumption of Position by Team Coordinator 5. Select Team Members 6. Identify Transition Office Area, Communication Systems, and Support Personnel 7. Orientation/Training of Team Members 8. Preparation of Transition Budget 9. Development of Transition Team Goals and Objectives 10. Preparation of Team Action Plan Agendas 11. Review, Finalize, and Approve Action Plan Agendas 12. Finalize and Schedule Team Member Assignments 13. Development of Transition Planning Report System 14. Arrange Media Coverage of Transition Process There are 12 general categories of transition/activation work tasks that need to be completed before a new correctional facility can be successfully opened, occupied and operated. Within those 12 categories there are 131 macro level tasks to complete, most of which have several subtasks within the macro tasks. For example, category 12 Move Logistics alone can have up to 66 subtasks depending on the particular type and size facility. A dedicated transition team needs to begin work on these tasks usually no later than 18 months prior to scheduled construction completion if the owner’s goal is to open and operate the facility close to the time of completing construction. Ideally, as much of the work as possible should be done by local staff who will work in the new facility. The local team would be trained and given substantial guidance and oversight assistance on at least a monthly basis throughout the entire transition/activation term by CGA consultant specialists. It is worth noting that in CGA’s experience 12 months is the shortest time that has been required to complete a successful activation for a major correctional facility, which was for a 1,400-bed jail in Fort Worth, Texas in 1989. Even though it is much smaller, more time was required for activating Bermuda’s new 200-bed Maximum Security Prison since it involved a major change in the type of inmate management practices and procedures. In downtown Los Angeles in the early 1990s it took three years to complete all the advance planning and developmental transition/activation work needed to open the 4,500-bed Twin Towers Correctional Facility that included a 200-bed central medical clinic, plus the County Jail system’s central intake/transfer/release system. 2. ADMINISTRATION For a multi-facility complex of 4,000 beds as is being contemplated in Utah approximately 24 months time should be allowed to complete all necessary transition/activation and building commissioning tasks. A team of approximately five (5) full-time experienced staff, each with different strengths, but with one being designated the transition team leader should be detached for the 2-year period to complete all tasks and assure the readiness of the complex when desired. Typically such a team should include: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Transition Team Leader Security specialist Policy and procedure writer Design and construction specialist FF&E specialist Public Review Draft 1. Determine Administration Goals and Objectives 2. Development Administration Organizational Structure 3. Develop Management Structure for the Jail 4. Prepare Preliminary Facility Operating Budget 5. Determine System for Inmate Information Flow and Management 6. Submit Operating Budget for Review 7. Revise Operating Budget and Disseminate for Public Information 8. Identify All Forms Required in Facility 9. Design/ Prepare Forms, Disseminate for Training 10. Requisition Necessary Equipment and Supplies 11. Arrange for Facility Tours 12. Determine Notification Requirements 13. Arrange for Notification of User/Allied Agencies 14. Determine Inmate Uniform and Property Requirements Carter Goble Associates 28 3. PERSONNEL 7. SECURITY AND CUSTODY 1. 1. Determine New Facility Personnel Requirements/Shift Factor 2. Prepare Job Descriptions 3. Determine Hiring Phase Schedule 4. Initiate Employment of New Staff 5. Identify Staff Equipment and Uniform Requirements 4. TRAINING 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Determine Training Goals and Objectives Prepare Transition Training Budget Prepare Training Curriculum and Materials Implement Classroom Training Programs Conduct Normal Pre-Service Training for New Staff Coordinate Scheduling of All ContractorSupplied Training for Building and Technical Systems Implement On-Site Transition Training Orient Staff- Policies/Procedures/Post Orders Evaluate Effectiveness of Transition Training 5. POLICY AND PROCEDURES 1. Develop Operational Plan 2. Develop Policy and Procedure Format 3. Implement Training in Policy and Procedure Formulation 4. Develop List of Required Policies and Procedures 5. Prepare Initial Draft Policies and Procedures 6. Revise Draft Policies/Procedures Based Upon Review 7. Prepare Second Drafts for Review and Revision 8. Prepare Final Draft and Disseminate for Training 6. POST ORDERS 1. Develop Format for Post Orders 2. Implement Training for Post Order Development 3. Develop List of all Required Post Orders 4. Develop Initial Draft of Post Orders 5. Revise Post Orders Based Upon Review 6. Prepare Final Drafts/ Disseminate for Training 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. Determine Security Approach Based Upon Design Limitations Determine Security Goals and Objectives Determine Security Organization Develop Evacuation Plan Develop Supervision Plan Develop Inmate Counts Plan Develop Inspections Plan Develop Control Room Operations Plan Develop Key Control Plan Develop Escapes and Disturbances Plans Develop Search Plan Develop Prisoner Movement Plan Develop Facility Access Plan Develop Weapons Control Plan Finalize Security Plans Facility Shakedowns & Determine Security Weaknesses 8. INMATE PROGRAMS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. Public Review Draft Determine Inmate Programs Goals and Objectives Determine Inmate Programs Organization Project Inmate Volume for each Program Develop Recreation Plan Develop Religious Program Plan Develop Educational Program Plan Develop Library Services Plan Develop Counseling Services Plan Develop Psychological Services Plan Develop Institutional Work Program Plan Develop Custody Group Work Program Plan Develop Industries Plan Finalize Inmate Programs Plan Identify External Agencies/ Volunteers/ Organizations Identify Existing Programs/ Equipment/ Supplies Prepare Contracts for Allied Agencies/ Organizations Determine Phasing of Programs Develop Work Schedules- Program Staff and Develop Volunteers Program and Guidelines APPENDIX A 29 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah 9. SUPPORT SERVICES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. MOVE LOGISTICS Establish Support Services Goals, Objectives Determine Support Services Organization Develop Facility Receiving Plan Develop Food Services Plan Determine Housekeeping Services Plan Develop Sanitation and Safety Plan Develop Commissary Plan Develop Inmate Canteen Plan Develop Mail/Communications/ Visiting Plan Develop Laundry Services Plan Develop Health Care Services Plan Finalize Support Service Plans and New or Amended Contracts As Applicable 10. CLASSIFICATION, INTAKE AND RELEASE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Develop Intake/Release Plan Develop Classification Goals and Objectives (adapt current objective classification system as appropriate) Project Volumes of Prisoner Flows Prepare/Amend Facility Classification Plan Related to New Design Finalize Classification Plan Determine Individual Housing Assignments 11. PHYSICAL PLANT SERVICES 1. Develop/Review all Equipment Service Contracts 2. Establish Physical Plant Goals and Objectives 3. Determine Organization 4. Establish Staff Levels for Building Operations 5. Identify Necessary Equipment for Shop Operations 6. Develop Operation Plan 7. Recruit/Select Bldg. Maintenance Staff 8. Develop Maintenance Schedule for Building Operations 9. Develop Catalogue of all Equipment Manuals 10. Review Facility Furnishings, Fixtures & Equipment for Non-contractor-provided FF&E and Supplies Requirements 11. Inspect all Equipment Hook-Ups 12. Trial Tests on all Mechanical Systems and Equipment Coordinated with Contractor/ Vendor-Supplied Training Public Review Draft 1. 2. 3. Establish Move Logistics Goals and Objectives Determine Organization Establish Inmate Movement Plan and Timetable 4. Identify Staff and Equipment Needs 5. Prepare Agreements for Equipment/ Supply Movement 6. Develop Agreements With Other Agencies for Assistance 7. Develop Written Plan/Process for Inmate Movement 8. Train Staff on Movement Process 9. Orient Inmates to New Facility Procedures 10. Implement Movement of Inmates Into New Facility Carter Goble Associates 30 Exemplary Prisons Space Standard Sizes For over 31 years CGA has been involved in prison planning projects in 48 states and 13 countries, which has given us a substantial variety of experience and examples of what is needed to plan, design, build and operate successful correctional facilities of all custody types and sizes. In addition to the planning of hundreds of individual prison facilities and prison complexes that have ranged from 200 beds to 22,500 beds our company has also been a consultant for the development of facility space standards for the American Correctional Association, the States of Michigan, Tennessee, and South Carolina, the Singapore Prison Service, the Asian Development Bank and the Architect of the Capitol for master planning the U.S. Congressional Buildings. Association’s minimum Standards for Adult Correctional Institutions 4th edition. To help readers of this study understand the exemplary sizes of contemporary prisons needed to comply with today’s security conditions and space standards a sample of the bed counts and square footages for 20 different correctional facilities from throughout the U.S. are summarized below. The last column notes if the facility’s initial construction included expanded or oversize support spaces to allow the addition of beds without other construction and if so how many beds would be supported. The replacement of the Draper Prison complex will require the construction of new facilities at sizes that exceed the collective sizes of the now 50+ year old Draper complex in order to meet today’s physical plant standards including those of the American Correctional Correctional Facilities Built or In-Process Since 1992 (Initial Bed Capacity) Sterling CF, Med Sec, CO (2,444) Eldorado CF, Max Sec, KS (808) Coyote Ridge CF, Med Sec, WA (2,176) San Carlos SNF, MH/SOF, CO (248) Multi-Custody CF, NE (960) Men’s Medium Security CF, OR (1,614) Southern State CF, Med Sec, VT (350) Ellsworth CF, Med Sec, KS (352) Las Colinas Women’s CF, CA (1,216) Correctional Treatment F, DC (880) Secure Treatment F, WI (300) SCI Chester, Med Sec, PA (1,274) SCC for Women, NV (168) Colo. State Pen, Max Sec CO (504) Max Security CC, IL (720) Work Ethic Camp, Min Sec, NE (100) Quehana Boot C, Min/Com Sec, PA (400) Tri-Cities Work Rel, Min/Com Sec WA (40) Women’s R&I Ctr, Multi Sec, OR (1,128) Minimum Sec. CF, OR (400) Averages (804) Initial Gross Square Feet 853,305 702,020 834,310 143,082 348,171 725,385 153,588 234,466 457,547 412,000 145,422 442,052 95,706 288,550 342,689 41,006 143,055 12,500 500,000 211,755 354,330 Gross Square Feet per Initial Bed 349 868 384 577 363 449 439 667 376 468 485 347 570 573 476 410 358 312 443 529 441 Expanded Support Core Space/ Beds N/A Yes/ 1,344 No N/A N/A Yes/ 1,824 Yes/ 500 Yes/ 512 Yes/ 1,342 No No No Yes/ 456 Yes/ 756 No Yes/ 200 N/A Yes/ 60 Yes/ 1,600 No Yes/10 No6/+37% Source: American Institute of Architects, Justice Facilities Reviews, 1992 to 2001 and Carter Goble Associates, Inc., projects from 1992 to 2001. Public Review Draft APPENDIX A 31 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Square Footage Space Estimator The following square footage estimators were used in the five different Draper replacement models tested in this Study. All estimators are in building gross square feet. They are drawn from a combination of CGA’s experience and ACA Standards for Adult Correctional Institutions, 4th Edition. Per Bed Space Estimators Used for Draper Replacements Full Full Partial Partial Partial Facility/ Function 4000 Bed 6000 Bed UDOC 1500 Bed 2200 Bed Facility Support Cores Male Maximum 65 115 n/a n/a n/a Male Medium & Intake 85 120 n/a n/a n/a Male Medium 85 120 145 n/a n/a Forensic Mental Health 95 125 85 95 125 Women's 75 125 95 95 125 Male Minimum Wk Rel. 65 110 160 65 110 Male Minimum THC 95 125 95 95 125 Centralized Functions Complex Adm/Visit Ctr 8 8 n/a 8 8 Central Kitchen 6 6 n/a 6 6 Clinic & Infirmary 5 5 n/a 5 5 Industries Center 10 10 n/a n/a n/a Central Laundry 1 1 n/a 1 1 Warehouse/Maint Unit 5 5 n/a 5 5 Central Plant (total lump sum) 10000 12000 n/a 5000 6000 Housing Single-bunked cells 295 295 295 295 295 Sp. Mgt. cells 295 295 295 295 295 Double-bunked cells 175 175 175 175 175 50-bed Dorms 190 190 190 190 190 Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 1 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah APPENDIX B COMPLETE APPRAISAL SUMMARY REPORT Located at 14400 South Pony Express Road Draper, Utah EFFECTIVE APPRAISAL DATE: August 17, 2005 Abstract: Under a full prison relocation, current highest and best use is for residential development. For residential development, value estimates are $93 and $72 million for “investment” and “market” values, respectively. Programmed uses are based on a mix of office, industrial, business park, retail, residential and institutional development. Programmed uses maximize potential over the long term and are consistent with Draper City planning goals. “Market” value of full and partial relocations are $51 and $34 million, respectively. “Investment” value of full and partial relocations are $77 and $49 million. PURPOSE OF THE APPRAISAL The purpose of this appraisal is to estimate market and investment values of the Draper Prison site under full and partial redevelopment scenarios. DEFINITIONS Market Value The most probable price which a property should bring in a competitive and open market under all conditions requisite to a fair sale, the buyer and seller each acting prudently, knowledgeably and assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus. Implicit in this definition is consummation of a sale as of a specified date and passing of title from seller to buyer under conditions whereby: 1. Buyer and seller are typically motivated; 2. Both parties are well-informed or well-advised and each acting in what they consider their own best interest; 3. A reasonable time is allowed for exposure in the open market; 4. Payment is made in terms of cash in U.S. dollars or in terms of financial arrangement comparable thereto; 5. The price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing or sales concessions granted by anyone associated with the sale.1 The foregoing definition stipulates that value reflect cash or cash equivalent terms. The following elaborates on the concept of cash equivalency. In applying this definition of market value, adjustments to the comparables must be made for special or creative financing or sales concessions. No adjustments are necessary for those costs that are normally paid by sellers as a result of tradition or law in a market area; these costs are readily identifiable since the seller pays these costs in virtually all sales transactions. Special or creative financing adjustments can be made to the comparable property by comparison to financing terms offered by a Public Review Draft L.E.C.G. 2 third party financial institution that is not already involved in the property or transaction. Any adjustment should not be calculated on a mechanical dollar for dollar cost of the financing or concession, but the dollar amount of any adjustment should approximate the market's reaction to the financing or concessions based on the appraiser's judgment.2 Investment Value “Investment value is defined as: “The specific value of an investment to a particular investor or class of investors based on individual investment requirements; as distinguished from market value, which is impersonal and detached. 3 Complete Appraisal “The act or process of developing an opinion of value or an opinion of value developed without invoking the Departure Rule. 4 sions. Supporting documentation is retained in the appraiser's file and is available to the client during regular business hours, if required. The subject comprises approximately 670 gross acres and 1,093,893 square feet of special-purpose building improvements and various site improvements including asphalt, concrete, landscaping, lighting, fencing and security. The improvements are not valued. Only a land valuation is made. This is accomplished using a discounted cash flow methodology that incorporates a sales comparison approach to value the land under the assumption of marketing in multiple development pods of ±50 acres. Also taken into account is the cost of spine infrastructure and other costs incurred in taking the property to the status necessary to market as development pods. Net cash flows are then discounted to present worth using an appropriate discount rate. The valuation premises are as follows: 1. Full Relocation – Market Value - Current High- Summary Appraisal Report est and Best Use (residential) 2. Full Relocation – Investment Value - Current “A written report prepared under Standards Rule 2-2 (b) or 8-2(b).” 5 3. Intended Use of the Report This report is intended to assist the client with an Economic Feasibility Study and to assist the State of Utah with planning matters. Intended Users The intended users of this report are the State of Utah Department of Facilities and Construction Management, Department of Administrative Services and Department of Corrections. Interest Valued Fee simple. Fee simple ownership is defined as, "absolute ownership unencumbered by any other interest or estate, subject only to the limitations imposed by the governmental powers of taxation, eminent domain, police power, and escheat. 6 Personal Property No personal property, FF&E, or intangibles are included in this valuation. Effective Date of Appraisal August 17, 2005 Date Of The Report October 18, 2005 Scope This summary appraisal report is a brief recapitulation of the appraiser's data, analyses, and conclu- 4. 5. 6. Highest and Best Use (residential). Full Relocation – Market Value – Programmed Uses (mixed-use). Full Relocation – Investment Value – Programmed Uses (mixed-use). Partial Relocation – Market Value – Programmed Uses (mixed-use). Partial Relocation – Investment Value – Programmed Uses (mixed-use). The value estimates are subject to assumptions and limiting conditions contained in the report. Extraordinary assumptions and hypothetical conditions invoked in this report are: • The concept of market value ties to highest and best use of property. The immediate marketdriven highest and best use is different than the desired long-term re-use. That is, the market would quickly absorb this acreage at relatively high prices for near-term residential development in the event of a full relocation of the prison. However, residential housing alone, while potentially maximizing present value, does not maximize community benefits or the long-term potential of the property. Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 3 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah • • • Related to the foregoing is the assumption that necessary zoning is first procured and general development entitlements earned from the applicable jurisdiction. The values therefore reflect the assumption of general entitlement. Investment value is specific to the State of Utah. The State of Utah has a AAA Bond Rating. The current 10-year bond rate for AAA-rated borrowers as of September 14, 2005 is 3.65 percent. This is the State’s assumed cost of capital and the discount rate used to calculate investment value. discounted cash flow analysis involving sales comparison, cost and income approach techniques to value the land. Description Of Real Estate Appraised Legal Description A legal description was obtained from the Salt Lake County Recorder’s office and is reproduced in the addenda. Real Estate Tax Information The subject is tax exempt. Assessed values for 2004 are summarized in the following table. Market value assumes a discount rate of 12 percent which is market supported. 2004 REAL ESTATE TAX SUMMARY • • • The values assume a grade-separated interchange will be provided at Bangerter Highway and 13800 South. Costs of construction have not been deducted from the estimated values on the assumption funds would come from other state and federal agencies. The values reflect land without building encumbrances. However, we have not deducted demolition costs which are currently estimated to approximate $6.6 million under the full relocation alternative (as estimated by the engineering firm DMJM). The values do not consider the cost to retire debt associated with the financing for energy improvements or the lease revenue bond that financed the surplus property facility. Appraisal Development and Reporting Process In preparing this appraisal report, the appraisers: • inspected the subject site and building improvements; • reviewed proposed land use, development ratios and absorption rates prepared by WEPC; • gathered information on zoning and master plans of surrounding communities and comparable land sales, and on market and investor (State of Utah) conditions, • confirmed and analyzed the data and applied the Tax I.D. Number Market Value Land Improvements Total Taxable Value Tax Rate Indicated Taxes 33-01-300-005 $27,301,100 20,000,000 $47,301,100 $0 x 0.0150250 $0 Ownership and Property History According to Salt Lake County records, current ownership is vested in the name of the State Department of Administration and Corrections Commission. According to Mr Greg Peay, Facilities Manager at the Draper Prison, prison improvements were constructed beginning in 1948, continuing with expansion, remodeling and improvement through to the present. There have been no ownership changes during this time period. Location and Neighborhood Please see the neighborhood map in the addenda on which the project area is identified. • Public Review Draft Jurisdiction and Proximity. The subject is located within the corporate jurisdiction of Draper City in Salt Lake County, at the southwest corner of the city. The Salt Lake International Airport is roughly 22 miles northwest, and the Central Business District of Salt Lake City is approximately 19 miles north. Draper City offices are to the northeast about three miles. Draper City is bounded by Sandy and South Jordan to the north, Riverton and Bluffdale to the west, and unincorporated Salt Lake County to the south and east. There is an L.E.C.G. 4 Interstate-15 interchange less than one-quarter mile north of the subject via Bangerter Highway and a second interchange at 14600 South, at the south end of the subject property. Bangerter Highway is accessed at I-15, 200 West, and Redwood Road. There is a proposed access at 13800 South. • Boundaries and Neighborhood Land Use. A neighborhood can be defined as, "...a portion of a larger community, or an entire community, in which there is homogeneous grouping of inhabitants, buildings, or business enterprises." ...Neighborhood boundaries may consist of well defined natural or man-made barriers or they can be more or less well defined by a distinct change in land use... 7 Based on the foregoing definition, neighborhood boundaries are considered to be roughly the Draper City limits to the north and south, which extend from 11400 South to the Point of the Mountain. The west boundary is the Jordan River and the east boundary is approximately 700 East. Major traffic thoroughfares in the area are I-15, 12300 South, Bangerter Highway, 14600 South (Highland Drive), State Street which turns into the east frontage road, as well as 700 East. Land uses adjacent to the subject are as follows. To the north is 13800 South, followed by vacant land, Bangerter Highway, limited commercial and industrial uses with multifamily residential and single-family residential further north. To the south is 14600 South, South Springs and Center Point Industrial Parks and vacant land. Independence at Bluffdale, a ±800 acre mixed-use project is located roughly one-half mile south. This project is currently in the approval phase and will include approximately 3,500 residential units, 18 acres of neighborhood commercial development and 20 acres of regional commercial uses. To the east is I15 followed by the Prison Administration Building, the Fred House Training Academy, Boondocks Amusement Park, and various commercial properties along Minuteman Drive. Multifamily and single-family uses are further south and east at Traverse Mountain, South Pointe, SunCrest, Traverse Ridge, and in various smaller projects. Further south on I-15 are gravel mining and cement plant operations. To the west of the prison is a rail corri- dor (proposed commuter rail station at ±14000 South), a state-owned corridor for the Jordan River Parkway, and Spring View Farms, a mixed-density single-family residential development currently under construction. In addition to Spring View Farms and Independence at Bluffdale, other recent market activity west of I-15 includes the speculative sale of several commercial and light industrial parcels of land north of the subject, along the I-15 and Bangerter Highway frontage and sale of industrial land at the southwest corner of the subject property. Mr. Wayne Whetman, a Realtor with experience in the area, reported that buyers and sellers of land along the west I-15 and Bangerter Highway frontage foresee a shift from industrial to more commercial uses. Also rumored is a potential location for an IKEA store, approximately one-half mile north of the prison. IKEA has several other sites under contract, including one at the Lehi exit, roughly five miles south of the 14600 interchange. The Lehi exit is the entrance to the Traverse Mountain community as well as the location of the new Cabela’s. Mr. Grant Crowell, Draper City Planning Department, reported that under either full or partial relocation, the city would like to see mixed-use development at the prison consisting of commercial, office, and industrial development. This is also the intention of areas of the Land Use Map of the General Plan of Draper City designated as “Growth Areas”. In the neighborhood of the prison these areas are located southeast across I15 and north of 13400 South on the west side of I-15. Crowell reported that for both of these Growth Areas as well as for potential prison site redevelopment, they would likely only allow residential uses if commercial, office and industrial uses were proven unviable. Draper has seen a significant amount of new residential development over the past decade. It has been one of the fastest growing cities in the state for the past several years on a population basis. The surge in residential growth has spurred the recent commercial boom being experienced along 12300 South, east and west of I-15. New residential growth has occurred primarily east of I-15. Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 5 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah New residential development west of I-15 is also occurring but on a smaller scale. With this growth, Draper City has emerged from an agrarian community to a bedroom community of Salt Lake. Residential development has included high-end homes with Draper City having the third highest average home price in the state, behind Park City and Salt Lake Avenues areas. There are still ample amounts of vacant land for development from agriculture to both residential and commercial uses in the area surrounding the prison. In the Draper neighborhood commercial uses have developed at the 12300 South interchange and along Minuteman Drive. Commercial development is expected in the near-term at 11800 South and State Street. West of I-15 at 12300 South and along Pony Express Drive development is more industrial in nature, although real estate agents report recent interest from commercial tenants. Residential development is occurring throughout east Draper and into Utah County, at SunCrest, Traverse Mountain (Lehi), Traverse Ridge, South Mountain, South Pointe, etc. Except for South Pointe, these are single-family detached neighborhoods approved for eventual build-out of some 14,000 units. South Pointe currently has approval for over 500 multifamily units. There is a neighborhood retail center and office development proposed at Highland Drive and Traverse Ridge Road, but to date no anchor tenant has been secured. • rior locations. They see the prison as a premier commercial location and do not want to lose the opportunity for increasing their tax base. • Accessibility. The subject has frontage along Pony Express Road, 13800 South, 14600 South and Bangerter Highway. Access to Interstate-15 is at14600 South Street, immediately south of the subject and at Bangerter Highway which is north of the subject. Pony Express Road connects with 14600 South to the south and 13800 South Street to the north. Bangerter Highway connects to 13800 South Street by 200 West Street. In concert with the subject economic feasibility study, an interchange is suggested at 13800 South and Bangerter Highway. At Bangerter Highway and ±14000 South, along the west property line rail corridor, UTA is considering a commuter rail station. Commuter rail is still in the planning stages and location of a station at the prison site is dependent upon other station locations along the line. As of this report date, no station site selection has been made. • Age/Life Trend. As noted, Draper has experienced a surge in growth in residential development for several years. This has spurred the new commercial development that is now occurring primarily near the 12300 South interchange. Older establishments are being completely razed to allow new commercial development. Numerous new residential communities have been constructed over the past several years which has led to a need for support services. Land at the 14600 South and Bangerter Highway interchange is expected to be developed to commercial use in the near future as well. Regarding the prison site, Crowell reported that the city would most likely encourage commercial development along the I-15 corridor with lower density office and industrial uses toward the inte- Public Review Draft Influences. The subject area is positively influenced by the continued growing residential base of the south valley and growing commercial development at 12300 South, at the Lehi exit to the south and proposed commercial development in the South Pointe and Independence at Bluffdale developments. These projects are east and west of I-15 at 14600 South, respectively. The close proximity of I-15 and Bangerter Highway are positive factors as well. Our research revealed that the prison is perceived as a negative influence to residential development. It was reported that IKEA briefly considered a site immediately north of the prison which was eliminated due to potential locational identification with the prison. Other industry participants generally see the prison’s influence on retail, industrial, or office development as essentially neutral. They opine that as the area is developed the prison will become “hidden” within other uses. No other negative influences were noted. L.E.C.G. 6 Description of Improvements Improvements are not valued in this appraisal and a detailed description is not provided. However, the facilities are briefly identified. Construction on the prison was begun in ±1948 and has continued with expansion, remodeling, and maintenance through to the present. There are 1,093,893 square feet of building area and significant site improvements including landscaping, asphalt surfacing, concrete, interior and perimeter fencing and various security features. The primary facilities are described below. Lone Peak is a Class “S” metal building constructed in 2000. It is a minimum security facility that is demised into ten 30-bed dormitories. Promontory Facility is a 400 bed, medium security facility. The building is a Class “A” and “C” dorm style structure constructed in 1995. Timpanogos Facility (North Point) comprises the Olympus Facility (forensic mental health), four housing buildings (Star 1-4), and two administration and operations buildings. These are Class “C” concrete buildings that were constructed from 1983 to 1985. These are medium and maximum security facilities with a total of 288 double-bunk housing cells. Additional buildings in the vicinity of this facility include a tower/warehouse, various modulars, and Utah Correctional Industries (“UCI”) buildings. South Point Facilities include Uinta, Wasatch, Oquirrh, and SSD housing units as well as gate houses, control tower, UCI buildings, chapel, administrative, and shop and maintenance buildings. Additional buildings in the vicinity of the South Point Facility include warehouse, garages, towers, administrative buildings, carport, geothermal well building, Utah Rose’s, fish hatchery buildings, and miscellaneous agricultural buildings. The Wasatch Facility was constructed between 1948 and 1977 and is a medium security facility of Class “B” construction components. The Oquirrh Facility was constructed between 1967 and 1987. It is of Class “B” (concrete frame) construction components. It is a medium security facility. SSD Housing is a Class “C” dormitory building constructed in 1959. Property Description The Utah State Department of Facilities and Construction Management (“DFCM”) provided WEPC an Alta Survey prepared by APEX Land Surveyors of Orem, Utah. This survey shows the subject comprises 609 acres southeast of Bangerter Highway and 64 acres northwest of Bangerter Highway for a total of 673 acres. This acreage, rounded to 670 acres, provides the basis for the net sizes of the full and partial relocations. A copy of the Boundaries for Prison Relocation map is presented in the addenda. The Salt Lake County Assessor’s Office plat map and legal description are also presented in the addenda. The county identifies the subject as totaling 689.23 acres. This differs from the Alta Survey by 16.23 acres. For this report, we have utilized 670 acres which is consistent with DFCM and WEPC. The 670 gross acre figure does not include deductions for roads, infrastructure and open space. Below is the proposed development breakdown under highest and best use and under full and partial relocation scenarios prepared by WEPC and utilized as the basis for the programmed uses valuation estimates concluded in this report. Development Program for Highest and Best Use Land Use Single-family Units 2,500 Multifamily-16 3,000 Regional retail The Uinta Facility was constructed between 1968 and 1998 and is a maximum security facility of Class “B” construction components. Square Feet 183 150,000 Trunk road system Total Public Review Draft Gross Acreage 416 24 47 5,500 150,000 670 APPENDIX B 7 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Development Program For Full Relocation Land Use Commuter Rail Station Units Square Feet Gross Acreage 14 Institutional Mixed Use Multifamily – 16 14 150 120,000 3,000 Neighborhood Retail 21 176 85,000 14 General Office 1,100,000 85 Regional Retail 175,000 28 Single-family 550 Light Industrial/Business Park Trunk Road System Total 92 2,000,000 3,480,000 670 Development Program For Partial Relocation Land Use Commuter Rail Station Units Light Industrial Multifamily – 16 Square Feet n/a Gross Acreage 15 1,500,000 104 1,300 Neighborhood Retail 82 50,000 8 General Office 1,500,000 134 Business Park 1,000,000 97 Trunk Road System 40 Subtotal 480 Prison Total 1,300 There are two major easements across the property: a 50-foot wide 45,000 volt power line easement and a high-pressure gas pipeline easement. In addition, the Jordan and Salt Lake Canal transects the property just south of 13800 South Street and the East Jordan Canal crosses the southeast quadrant of the subject, just southeast of the South Point facility. 156 70 3,700 Highway at roughly 13800 South. All utilities are available in surrounding streets. There is a 24,000 volt substation on the prison property. The property gradually slopes westerly toward the Jordan River and is generally below the grade of abutting I-15 and Bangerter Highway. n/a 190 4,050,000 670 These tables show a gross area at 670 acres. Sales of development pods exclude land taken for spine infrastructure (trunk and road system). Pod buyers would be responsible for interior roads and open space requirements. Therefore, sellable land would comprise 600 acres for full relocation and 440 acres for a partial relocation. The subject tract is irregular in shape. It has frontage and access on 13800 South, 14600 South and Pony Express Road. It has frontage but no access on I-15. For programmed uses, this report assumes the subject will have a grade-separated interchange with Bangerter The subject is a large site with limited interior infrastructure. Sewer, water, electricity, and natural gas are available at the perimeter and service the subject at a few interior locations. There are limited interior streets. For programmed uses, this report assumes that a grade-separated interchange at Bangerter Highway and 13800 South will be constructed using funds not related to this project. The subject is currently zoned M-1 under the jurisdiction of Draper City. This report assumes a zoning change to accommodate a mix of uses as detailed in the WEPC development scenarios tables presented above. Water Rights and Shares The Department of Corrections owns 545 shares (.8 acre feet per share) of Draper Irrigation Company water which provides irrigation water between April 15th and October 15th annually. According to Dave Gardiner of Draper Irrigation they are a mutual water company and the company has the first right-of-refusal to purchase all shares that become available on the market. Currently they are buying shares for $700 and selling shares for $1,000. Based on this, the current value of the prison’s Draper Irrigation shares is $381,500. The prison also owns 331 shares (1,602 acre feet) of East Jordan Canal Company water that is also available from April 15th to October 15th annually. This water has an estimated value of $3,750 per share or $1,241,250. Finally, the prison has a contract with Jordan Valley Water Conservancy; however, this is not assignable. Public Review Draft L.E.C.G. 8 Water Rights No. Application/Claim No. Change Application No. Owner Address Type of Right Source Flow Description 57-8412 A52451 A14232 State of Utah Division of Facilities Construction and Manage, Attn: Real Property Manager 4110 South State Salt Lake City UT 84114 Application to Appropriate Underground Water Well 1.56 cfs Geothermal: heating of Utah State Prison Buildings and fish culture 57-8313 A49831 - State of Utah Department of Corrections P.O. Box 487 Draper UT 84020 Application to Appropriate Underground Water Well 1.2 cfs Domestic: 1,300 persons and commercial: dairy & meat processing plant A summary of the geothermal rights and domestic use rights from the State of Utah are presented in the table above. sion of Water Rights is not closed to appropriation for use of the water, a maximum fee of $500 would be assessed for a drill permit. Therefore, we conclude the value of the existing geothermal water right to be $500. The prison has a 500-foot well and pump which is valued at $17,500. Total value of the geothermal water rights, well and pump is estimated at $18,000. Water Right No. 57-8313 provides water for 1,300 persons as well as use for a dairy and meat processing plant. The water is available from January 1 to December 31. A total of 117 acre feet is estimated. Value is estimated at $2,500 per acre foot based on water sales data we have on file. This equates to $292,500. Water Right No. 57-8412 provides a right to use underground water (fluid) as a conductor of heat (resource). This right does not Site Name allow the consumption of any water. Address The prison only “uses” the water but No. of tank must return it to the same source from DERR ID in Use which it was taken. The prison priority Currently Tank ID date allows that return to be made at Substance Stored Date Installed the surface, hence, the current cooling Tank ID ponds. The Utah Division of Water Substance Stored Date Installed Rights issues a right to use the water; Tank ID they do not issue, nor are they owners Substance Stored Date Installed or appropriators of the heat. Thus, Permanently Out of Use while the entire Salt Lake Valley is Tank ID Substance Stored closed to new appropriations of water, Date Installed since there is no water consumption, a Date Closed Corrective Action new water right appropriation to only required before closure use and not consume would likely be Tank ID Substance Stored granted. The Utah Division of Water Rights requires a permit to drill a well for use of geothermal water only to monitor the use and full return of the water. Under conditions where a “closed loop” system is used to conduct the heat, a drill permit is required to make sure the system does not consume any water. Where a shallow surface grid system is used, no Division of Water Rights permits are required. That being said, it is still a fact that the prison (State Department of Corrections), owns and could sell this water right. However, where the Divi- LUST Release Date Installed Date Closed Closure Description Current Status Site Description Tank ID Substance Stored LUST Release Date Installed Date Closed Closure Description Current Status Site Description Bluffdale Prison M otor Pool 14400 South Pony Express Road 7 4001130 3 1 Diesel 9/1/1994 2 Gasoline 9/1/1994 9 Used Oil 12/16/1998 Utah State Prison Oquirrh Gen. 14425 South Bitterbrush Lane 2 4001781 1 2 Diesel 10/26/1998 Utah State Prison North Gate 14425 South Bitterbrush Lane 2 4001782 1 2 Diesel 10/26/1998 Utah State Prison Unit 4A Maximum Security 14400 South State 1 4002081 1 1 Diesel 9/27/1996 1 1 Diesel 1/1/1987 10/29/1998 4 6 Used Oil KRQ 1/1/1989 10/26/1998 Tank Removed, Permanantly out of use No further action dated 1/7/1999* Internal Close** 3, 7 and 8 Gasoline ISD 1/1/1985 8/30/1994 Tank Removed, Permanantly out of use No further action Over filled 1 1 Diesel KVB 10/27/1986 10/18/1999 Removed, Permanently out of use No further action dated 11/1/1999 Release of Petroleum * any detectable petroleum contamination at the site is not a threat to human health or the environmental as characterized using State Underground Storage Tank Rules. ** from Jason Wilde and Dianna Rasmussen Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 9 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah • • Environmental Status Review. As requested by the Division of Facilities and Construction Management, we have investigated the environmental (contamination) history of the prison site through the Utah State Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), Division of Environmental Response and Remediation. A summary of “open” (current) tank sites identified by DEQ is shown below. Based on our review of DEQ information it does not appear that there are any active environmental issues at the subject property. The four tests of highest and best use are applied to the full and partial relocation scenarios below. As Vacant • Both of these are large sites and can easily accommodate a mix of uses. Access, frontage and exposure are good and all utilities are available. Soil stability appears adequate. Extending through the property is a high voltage overhead power corridor, a high pressure natural gas transmission line and the Jordan and Salt Lake and East Jordan Canals. These are not overwhelming development challenges but do require consideration in site planning and potentially may reduce site efficiency. Given the amount of open space and roadways assumed, it is probable these could be incorporated into nonsellable areas. Additional physical features include a geothermal well, water rights and shares and potential wetlands. These factors are typical of land in the area. Wetlands. From our physical inspection of the property there appears to be some “wet” areas, including geothermal pools and ditches. These are probably minor and could be incorporated into open space in all likelihood. Highest And Best Use Highest and best use is defined as, "...the reasonably probable and legal use of vacant land or improved property, which is physically possible, appropriately supported, financially feasible, and that results in the highest value." 8 There are four tests of highest and best use implicit within the foregoing definitions. These include: (1) physically possible, (2) legally permitted, (3) financially feasible, and (4) that use which having met the foregoing tests results in the highest present land value. • Legally Permitted. The subject is currently zoned M-1; however, M-1 is not considered terminal zoning. Under current market conditions, buyers would most likely propose residential zoning. Under programmed uses rezoning to a mix of office, business park, industrial, institutional, retail, and residential is likely. Immediately surrounding development is predominantly vacant land with a mix of industrial and low density commercial to the north and industrial and the proposed commercial portion of Independence at Bluffdale to the south. I-15 and low density commercial and industrial uses are east along the I-15 frontage and vacant land and Spring View Farms are to the west. A mix of uses is consistent with parcel size and surrounding uses. • Economically Feasible. Economic feasibility involves a number of factors, including existing and future supply and demand for a given use, investment cost of the property, availability of affordable financing, and developer expertise. All uses, in- Highest and best use is typically considered as if the land were vacant and available for development. For this report, in addition to current value based on a market-driven highest and best use, we have estimated value based on programmed land use and absorption from economic models prepared by WEPC. The economic model for full relocation involves 600 sellable acres and a mix of uses including commuter rail station, institutional, light industrial, business park and general office, mixed-use, multifamily and singlefamily residential, neighborhood and regional retail. Under partial relocation the South Point facility will remain and the gross land area is reduced to 440 acres. Uses include commuter rail station, light industrial, business park and general office, multifamily and neighborhood retail. Physically Suitable. The subject will comprise either 600 or 440 sellable acres (net of spine infrastructure that will have to be installed, including three to four perimeter-connecting interior streets and utility main lines). Public Review Draft L.E.C.G. 10 cluding those proposed by WEPC and/or full build out as residential development, are assumed to be economically viable. However, a predominately residential use results in the highest present value. Retail Pod Values The sales comparison approach is used to value the retail pods. This approach is based on the appraisal principle of substitution and takes into consideration the selling price of other parcels of land which provide utility equal or similar to the subject. Comparative adjustments are made for variances to arrive at a value estimate for the subject. Current highest and best use is concluded to be for residential development. Programmed uses include some or all of a commuter rail station, institutional, light industrial, mixed use, multi- and single-family residential, neighborhood and regional retail, general office and business park. Given the long-term forecast build-out, general similarity of class of use, locational features (frontage, exposure, access), density and size of pods, we have grouped or included land uses into the following categories. Based on these value conclusions, highest and best use is concluded to be for predominately residential development. Summary of Analysis and Valuation Land Valuation The land is valued uing a discounted cash flow model. The steps of the approach are: 1. Estimate the retail value of development pods, served only by spine infrastructure, that can accommodate either one or multiple land uses; 2. Project an absorption period for sell-out of the pods; 3. Project market conditions adjustment; 4. Deduct development costs: a. Spine infrastructure b. Marketing Costs c. Carrying Costs d. Closing Costs e. Profit 5. Estimate an appropriate yield rate and discount net cash flows to present value. • Land Use I: Office, Industrial and Business Park • Land Use II: Multifamily, single-family, mixed use, neighborhood commercial, institutional and commuter rail A search for recent land sales resulted in the data summarized in the tables in the following sections. OFFICE-BUSINESS PARK-LIGHT INDUSTRIAL LAND ADJUSTMENT GRID ADDRESS SUBJECT ONE TWO 14400 South Pony Express Road 4448 South 6400 West 1300 South 5600 West AREA (ACRE) SALE PRICE THREE FOUR 4898 West 924 West 2100 South 14600 South FIVE SIX SEVEN EIGHT 2125 South Constitution Blvd 290 South 5600 West 13553 South Pony Express 9450 South 300 West NINE TEN 13800 South 774 West Pony Express 10000 South Draper West Valley SLC SLC Bluffdale West Valley SLC Draper Sandy Draper ±50 acres -- 115.86 168.25 138.38 38.50 27.79 61.94 12.98 11.76 11.73 15.98 $4,981,980 $3,588,405 $2,626,000 $5,531,297 $2,262,000 $2,300,000 $3,000,000 $3,828,488 -- Mar-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Jul-05 Apr-05 May-05 May-05 Mar-04 Jul-05 Jan-03 O/BP/LI M M-1 M-1 Lt Ind M M-1 M-1 RD M-1 I-F $43,000 $60,984 $59,257 $93,208 $94,494 $89,298 $174,268 $195,578 $255,689 $239,580 SALE DATE ZONING SALES PRICE/Acre PROPERTY RIGHTS ADJUSTED PRICE FINANCING TERMS ADJUSTED PRICE CONDITIONS OF SALE NORMAL PRICE/Acre EXP. AFTER SALE ADJUSTED PRICE MARKET (TIME) ADJ. MARKET PRICE/Acre ADJUSTMENTS Location Size $10,260,558 $8,200,000 South Jordan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $43,000 $60,984 $59,257 $93,208 $94,494 $89,298 $174,268 $195,578 $255,689 $239,580 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $43,000 $60,984 $59,257 $93,208 $94,494 $89,298 $174,268 $195,578 $255,689 $239,580 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $43,000 $60,984 $59,257 $93,208 $94,494 $89,298 $174,268 $195,578 $255,689 $239,580 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $43,000 $60,984 $59,257 $93,208 $94,494 $89,298 $174,268 $195,578 $255,689 $239,580 36% 20% 5% 2% 9% 8% 8% 36% 2% 36% $58,621 $73,415 $62,423 $95,430 $103,348 $96,344 $189,021 $266,629 $259,682 $326,616 +++ + + + + + = = = = 28% 35% 32% 0% 0% 0% -37% -38% -30% -34% Functional Utility - - - - - - - - - - Utilities = = + = = = = = = = Density Total Quantitative Adjustments Total Qualitative Adjustments NET ADJUSTED PRICE ADJUSTED AVERAGE/ACRE = = = = = = = = = = 28% 35% 32% 0% 0% 0% -37% -38% -30% -34% ++ = + = = = - - - - $75,035 $99,110 $82,398 $95,430 $103,348 $96,344 $119,083 $165,310 $181,777 $215,567 $123,340 Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 11 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah south of the Bangerter Highway interchange on 200 West. Recall this analysis assumes a grade separated interchange at ±13800 and Bangerter as well as extension of a framework of interior roads. Access and exposure are excellent. Surrounding development includes large projects such as Independence at Bluffdale to the south, Spring View Farms to the west, and the South Mountain, SunCrest, Traverse Mountain, etc. projects to the southeast. In addition there is a successful industrial market to the southwest and a growing light industrial and commercial market moving in from the north. Land Use I: (Office, Industrial and Business Park) Before adjustments are applied, the foregoing data indicate a value range from $43,000 to $255,689 per acre. Land price variances are normally attributed to seven factors: property rights conveyed, financing terms, conditions of sale, market conditions (date of sale), location, physical factors and use (density). Each factor is discussed below. • Property Rights Conveyed. All of the sales involved the conveyance of fee simple ownership. No adjustment is necessary. • Financing Terms. All transactions involved cash or cash equivalent terms. No adjustment is needed. • Conditions of Sale. The transactions are reported to be arm’s-length requiring no adjustments. • • Market Conditions (Date of Appraisal). The increase in land values experienced in Salt Lake County in the mid- and later 1990s slowed in the early 2000s as the economy slowed. However, over the past year the demand and prices for welllocated, easily accessible land has increased significantly. This has resulted in upward pressure on land values in the subject neighborhood. A paired sales analysis is made between Sales #8 and #9. Both are similar in size and are located just west of I-15. Over a 16-month period they show a 31 percent price increase or nearly two percent per month. Sale #5 sold in August 2004 for $51,277 per acre and again in April 2005 for $95,494 per acre. Even after downward adjustments to the April sale for site work, engineering, and entitlement, a roughly seven percent monthly price increase is noted. Realtors report a significant increase in prices in the past year, several reporting prices nearly doubling. The subject market is currently very active. Except for Sale #10, all of the comparables transacted in 2004 and 2005. A 2.5 percent monthly increase in prices averages 30 percent annually. This is applied to all sales beginning in June 2004. Sale #1 is far to the west in the Salt Lake Valley. I-80 is roughly six miles north and I-215 is five miles west. It does not front any major traffic corridor. Significant upward adjustment is required. Sales #2, #3, #4, #5, and #6 have good frontage and access on a major traffic corridor; although in all cases these features are inferior to the subject. Surrounding development is generally in the development stages as these sites are located in the path of growth. Small upward adjustment is warranted. Sales #7, #8, #9, and #10 have good exposure and access from I-15. Sales #7 and #9 are in the immediate neighborhood, just north of the subject. Sale #10 is just west of the Sandy Civic Center and South Towne Mall area. No adjustments are necessary. • Location. This refers to exposure, access, surrounding development as well as the overall perceptions of an area. The subject is very well located between two I-15 interchanges and is just Public Review Draft Physical Characteristics. This refers to parcel size, functional utility, availability of utilities and infrastructure. Each factor is discussed separately below. Size: The comparables range from 11.73 acres to 168.25 acres. The subject will be subdivided into “super pads” which will average 50 acres. After adjustments for market conditions, Sales #2 and #6 show a 45 percent increase in the per acre price where the total site size decreased 63 percent or 0.7 percent decrease in price for each one percent increase in size. Sales #3 and #5, adjusted only for time show a 38 percent decrease in per acre price where size decreases 80 percent, or roughly 0.5 percent decrease in price for each one percent increase in size. Fifty-acre sites which are proposed at the L.E.C.G. 12 subject, are mid-range of all the sales. A 0.5 percent adjustment in price per acre is made for each one percent change in size. • Functional Utility The subject will be cleared of the existing buildings and improved with a spine of interior roads. Overall topography is unremarkable. There are surface-expressed geothermal pools that would require monitoring and may result in some wetlands dedication. There are two canals that cross the property, a high-voltage power corridor and natural gas high pressure pipeline. These are not insurmountable challenges, nevertheless all of the comparables are considered superior to the subject and downward adjustment is made. Water and geothermal rights and water shares were discussed earlier in this report. Land Use II: Multifamily, single-family, mixed use, neighborhood commercial, institutional and commuter rail Utilities All utilities are available to the subject. This is the case with all of the sales except Sale #3 where some utilities had to be extended. In this case an upward adjustment is made. • Value Conclusion. Sales #1 through #6 are industrial uses and indicate a value range at or above $95,000 to $103,000 when considering both quantitative and qualitative adjustments. Current value of industrial-use ground is concluded at $100,000 per acre for large pods. Sales #7, #8, #9, and #10 are in office locations, have surrounding office development or are proposed for office uses. After adjustments these comparables indicate a value below $150,000 to $175,000 per acre. A value of $165,000 per acre is concluded. Business Park land is a hybrid of these two uses and a value of $130,000 per acre is reasonably projected. This is analyzed in two density sections. Below is the first section which addresses the multifamily density of 16 units per acre. This is followed by the singlefamily section which estimates value based on a density of 6 units per acre. Use/Density. The sale comparables utilized include industrial, office park and business park uses. No adjustment is made. This factor is considered in the reconciliation and final value conclusions to follow. RESIDENTIAL, MIXED-USE, RETAIL, INSTITUTIONAL, COMMUTER RAIL SUBJECT 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 14400 South Pony Express Road 65 East Highland Dr 6755 South 950 East 3800 West 7000 South 3100 South 1600 West 2800 South 5600 West 1300 West 14000 South 3295 West 8600 South 15000 South 300 East 7000 West 7000 South 700 West Draper Draper Midvale W. Jordan West Valley West Valley Bluffdale W. Jordan Draper W Jordan Midvale ±50 acres -- 40.12 6.29 10.00 17.75 18.90 9.64 35.72 29.42 15.76 130.00 $4,429,000 $2,024,553 $2,300,000 $2,431,000 $3,785,000 $1,260,000 $4,260,000 $2,900,000 $2,585,000 $29,900,000 SALE DATE -- Jan-03 Feb-04 Nov-03 Mar-01 Mar-03 Apr-02 Jan-05 Nov-02 Sep-03 U.C. DENSITY/AC 16 12 13.4 20 12.4 17.7 12 12.1 3.6 6 20 PRICE/UNIT -- $9,199 $24,020 $11,500 $11,045 $11,314 $10,892 $9,856 $27,381 $27,337 $11,500 ADDRESS AREA (ACRE) SALE PRICE ZONING MF-SF-Retail, etc. SALES PRICE/ACRE PROPERTY RIGHTS ADJUSTED PRICE FINANCING TERMS ADJUSTED PRICE CONDITIONS OF SALE NORMAL PRICE/ACRE EXP. AFTER SALE ADJUSTED PRICE MARKET (TIME) ADJ. MARKET PRICE/SCRE ADJUSTMENTS Location Size 19 ± 8000 South 20 A-1 RM-25 A-1 R-M M-1 R-MF PD R-3 P-C PUD $110,394 $321,869 $230,000 $136,958 $200,265 $130,705 $119,261 $98,572 $164,023 $230,000 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $110,394 $321,869 $230,000 $136,958 $200,265 $130,705 $119,261 $98,572 $164,023 $230,000 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $110,394 $321,869 $230,000 $136,958 $200,265 $130,705 $119,261 $98,572 $164,023 $230,000 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $110,394 $321,869 $230,000 $136,958 $200,265 $130,705 $119,261 $98,572 $164,023 $230,000 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $110,394 $321,869 $230,000 $136,958 $200,265 $130,705 $119,261 $98,572 $164,023 $230,000 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 0% $126,953 $370,149 $264,500 $157,501 $230,304 $150,311 $137,150 $113,358 $188,626 $230,000 - -- = + + = + - + + = -10% -10% -5% -5% -10% = = -5% 10% Functional Utility = - -- - - = 10% - - -- Utilities 5% = = = = = = = = = Entitlement = = = = = = = = = = 13% 3% -9% 8% -3% 10% 13% 43% 22% -7% Total Quantitative Adjustments 18% -7% -19% 3% -8% 0% 23% 43% 17% 3% Total Qualitative Adjustments - --- -- = = = + -- = - $149,170 $344,238 $213,187 $162,699 $211,880 $150,311 $168,146 $162,102 $220,315 $236,900 Density NET ADJUSTED PRICE Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 13 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah 16 units per acre per acre at $14,500 per unit and a 17-acre parcel with potential for 27 units per acre at $12,800 per unit. These two sales seem to indicate current upward movement in prices in this sector. After adjusting for size, Sale #20 also results in some recent increase in selling prices. Comparing the confidential 10-acre contract reported above with Sale #13 indicates a 26 percent increase over the past two years. Given the lack of price increases noted by the comparable sales, it is reasonable to say the entire 26 percent increase has occurred within the past few months. Before adjustments are applied, the foregoing data indicate a value range from $98,572 to $321,869 per acre or from $9,199 to $27,381 per unit. Land price variances are normally attributed to seven factors: property rights conveyed, financing terms, conditions of sale, market conditions (date of sale), location, physical factors and use (density). Each factor is discussed below. • Property Rights Conveyed. All of the sales involved the conveyance of fee simple ownership. No adjustment is necessary. • Financing Terms. All transactions involved cash or cash equivalent terms. No adjustment is needed. • Conditions of Sale. The transactions are reported to be arm’s-length requiring no adjustments. • Market Conditions (Date of Appraisal). The increase in land values experienced in Salt Lake County in the mid and later 1990s slowed in the early 2000s as the economy slowed. However, over the past year the demand and prices for most commercial real estate sectors have increased significantly. For the multifamily sector, this increase has been only modest at best. Realtors and market investors report flat rental rates and increasing construction costs have kept downward pressure on this sector of the market. In summary, the multifamily land market has remained stable over the past three years as vacancies which peaked in 2002 have decreased slowly, lease rates have remained flat and construction costs have increased. The comparable data shows stable land prices; however, market participants indicate more current interest in this sector of the market at higher prices. Based on this analysis, except for Sale #20 which is not closed, a 15 percent upward adjustment is made to all of the sales. • The comparable sales likewise reflect flat to modestly increasing selling prices. For instance, Sales #11, #14, #16, and #17 all have a density of approximately 12 units per acre and have sale dates ranging from March 2001 to January 2005. For these sales selling prices range from $9,199 to $11,045 per unit, with the oldest sale reflecting the highest price. Sale #20 is a proposed 130-acre multifamily project at 7000 South and 700 West that is currently under contract for $11,500 per unit at a density of 20 units per acre. Prior to any adjustment for size, this is essentially the same as the per unit price of Sales #13 and #15, sales which transacted roughly two years ago. However, realtors reported two other under contract transactions that we were asked to keep confidential that include a 10 acre parcel with potential for 20 units Public Review Draft Location Sales #11 and #18 are on the east side of I-15, just south of the subject. This is the South Pointe, SunCrest, Traverse Ridge, Traverse Mountain, South Mountain, etc. side of the freeway. Downward adjustment is warranted. Sale #12 is an in-fill parcel in east Midvale. It has good freeway access and is superior in terms of density of surrounding development and availability of services. Downward adjustment is made. Sales #13 is part of the Jordan Commons development. Access and surrounding development are similar and no overall adjustment is required. Sale #14 is along Redwood Road in West Valley City. Access is and surrounding development are inferior. Upward adjustment is made. Sale #15 is accessible via 5600 West, but is not centrally located and is in an area with inferior surrounding development. Overall upward adjustment is required. L.E.C.G. 14 Sale #16 is just north of the subject and no adjustment is necessary. Entitlement. The subject will have density approval. All of the sales had density approval at the time of sale and no adjustments are necessary. Sale #17 has inferior access and surrounding development and upward adjustment is warranted. This sale is part of the proposed mixed-use redevelopment at the West Jordan Trax Station. • Sale #19 has inferior access and surrounding development and requires upward adjustment. Sale #20 is west of I-15 with similar access. Surrounding development is inferior and upward adjustment is made. • Physical Characteristics Size The comparables range from 6.29 acres to 130 acres. As with the commercial land, pods of an average 50 acres are assumed. Sales #13 and #20 are similar in terms of density and represent the range from smallest to largest parcel size. After adjustment for market conditions and location a 9.5 percent adjustment for size is noted. Appropriate adjustments are made to the very largest and smallest comparables. Functional Utility The subject will be cleared of the existing buildings and improved with a spine of interior roads. Overall topography is unremarkable. There are surface-expressed geothermal pools that would require monitoring and may result in some wetlands dedication. There are two canals that cross the property, a highvoltage power corridor and natural gas high pressure pipeline. Sales #11 and #16 had topographical challenges that required additional site work and no adjustment is made. Sale #7 required removal of existing buildings. This cost is converted to a percentage and applied as an upward adjustment. All of the remaining comparables are considered superior to the subject and downward adjustment is made. Utilities All utilities are available to the subject. This is the case with all of the sales except Sale #11 and no adjustment is necessary. In the case of Sale #11, utilities had to be extended roughly 500 feet and upward adjustment based on costs reported by the broker is made. Use/Density. The sale comparables utilized here have a range of density from 3.6 to 20 units per acre. The multifamily portion of the subject is proposed for a 16 unit per acre density. The comparable sales do not give any clear quantitative indication of a price adjustment for density. Mr. Jim Taylor (formerly) of Jordan Landing, reported that after the sale of Sale #13, the buyer purchased additional density credits at a price of $4,000 per unit. A $4,000 per unit figure is applied to the sales to 16 units per acre. The subject also includes smaller parcels of land programmed for neighborhood and regional retail, a commuter rail station and parking, institutional and mixed use. Generally speaking any upward adjustment required for higher density uses permitted on the retail land is offset by the lower density use of the commuter rail station and parking and institutional use and overall no adjustment is necessary. Sales #11, #14 and #17 had commercial and/or retail components within their development plans but don’t show any price differentiation. No adjustment for this factor is made. • Value Conclusion. The sales indicate a value between $163,000 and $220,000 per acre based on quantitative adjustments, and a slightly lower value range when factoring in the qualitative adjustments. Given a density of 16 units per acre, a per unit value between $10,188 and $13,750 is indicated. Recall recent activity ranging from $11,500 to $14,500 per unit. A value of $13,000 per unit or $208,000 per acre is concluded. 6 units per acre The sale comparables utilized for the multifamily land above are appropriate for the single-family section at a 6-unit per acre density. A density adjustment based on the previously applied factor of $4,000 per unit is applied to the sales in the following table. Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 15 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah We are relying on absorption analysis completed by WEPC to project absorption for the subject land. WEPC addressed supply and demand for vertical construction of the various uses proposed and concluded the following: After quantitative adjustments the sales indicate a range between $125,000 and $180,000 per acre or $20,883 to $30,000 per unit. Qualitative adjustments, on average, would suggest a similar range. Sale #19 is most like the subject and has an adjusted value of $179,195 or $29,886 per unit, and no net qualitative adjustment. A value of $28,000 per unit or $168,000 per acre is concluded. • Single-Family Based on 2004 sales of subdivisions containing over 100 units (2,678 total units), and a capture rate for the subject of three percent, WEPC projects an absorption of 80 units per year. This equates to just under seven years based on 550 single family units (full relocation). Summary. Value estimates on a per acre basis for the proposed uses are as follows. Office: Business Park: Industrial: *Single-Family *Multifamily: $165,000 $130,000 $100,000 $168,000 $208,000 Land buyers would purchase the land at a quicker pace than build-out of vertical construction. A five-year projection is made. Multifamily The average absorption for multifamily units in the valley has been 1,304 annually between 2001 and 2004. At this rate, and a 15 percent capture, WEPC forecasts just under 200 units per year or 14 years total. At a density of 16 units per acre, 200 units would require 12.5 acres. * Includes a prorata share of neighborhood and regional retail, commuter rail station and parking, institutional and mixed-use. • Absorption. At the values concluded, the land would not sell all at once. Therefore, it is necessary to project the period over which super pads could be sold. Again, the absorption of units is slower than the absorption of land. Major multifamily developers RESIDENTIAL, MIXED-USE, RETAIL, INSTITUTIONAL, COMMUTER RAIL SUBJECT 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 14400 South Pony Express Road 65 East Highland Dr 6755 South 950 East 3800 West 7000 South 3100 South 1600 West 2800 South 5600 West 1300 West 14000 South 3295 West 8600 South 15000 South 300 East 7000 West 7000 South 700 West Draper Draper Midvale W. Jordan West Valley West Valley Bluffdale W. Jordan Draper W Jordan Midvale 40.12 6.29 10.00 17.75 18.90 9.64 35.72 29.42 15.76 130.00 SALE PRICE ±50 acres -- $4,429,000 $2,024,553 $2,300,000 $2,431,000 $3,785,000 $1,260,000 $4,260,000 $2,900,000 $2,585,000 $29,900,000 SALE DATE -- Jan-03 Feb-04 Nov-03 Mar-01 Mar-03 Apr-02 Jan-05 Nov-02 Sep-03 U.C. DENSITY/AC 6 12 13.4 20 12.4 17.7 12 12.1 3.6 6 20 PRICE/UNIT -- $9,199 $24,020 $11,500 $11,045 $11,314 $10,892 $9,856 $27,381 $27,337 $11,500 ADDRESS AREA (ACRE) ZONING MF-SF-Retail, etc. SALES PRICE/ACRE PROPERTY RIGHTS ADJUSTED PRICE FINANCING TERMS ADJUSTED PRICE CONDITIONS OF SALE NORMAL PRICE/ACRE EXP. AFTER SALE ADJUSTED PRICE MARKET (TIME) ADJ. MARKET PRICE/SCRE ADJUSTMENTS Location Size 19 ± 8000 South 20 A-1 RM-25 A-1 R-M M-1 R-MF PD R-3 P-C PUD $110,394 $321,869 $230,000 $136,958 $200,265 $130,705 $119,261 $98,572 $164,023 $230,000 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $110,394 $321,869 $230,000 $136,958 $200,265 $130,705 $119,261 $98,572 $164,023 $230,000 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $110,394 $321,869 $230,000 $136,958 $200,265 $130,705 $119,261 $98,572 $164,023 $230,000 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $110,394 $321,869 $230,000 $136,958 $200,265 $130,705 $119,261 $98,572 $164,023 $230,000 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $110,394 $321,869 $230,000 $136,958 $200,265 $130,705 $119,261 $98,572 $164,023 $230,000 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 0% $126,953 $370,149 $264,500 $157,501 $230,304 $150,311 $137,150 $113,358 $188,626 $230,000 - -- = + + = + - + + = -10% -10% -5% -5% -10% = = -5% 10% Functional Utility = - -- - - = 10% - - -- Utilities 5% = = = = = = = = = Entitlement = = = = = = = = = = -19% -8% -21% -16% -20% -16% -18% 9% 0% -24% Total Quantitative Adjustments -14% -18% -31% -21% -25% -26% -8% 9% -5% -14% Total Qualitative Adjustments - --- -- = = = + -- = - $109,179 $303,522 $182,505 $124,426 $172,728 $111,230 $126,178 $123,561 $179,195 $197,800 Density NET ADJUSTED PRICE ADJUSTED AVERAGE/ACRE Public Review Draft L.E.C.G. 16 will take down larger tracts and build out at once. The single-family market has been very strong in recent years, and this has had a negative impact on the multifamily market, but that is not expected to always be the case. We project an absorption of the multifamily super pads over seven and three years, respectively, for the full and partial relocations. Long-term inflation approximates 2.5 percent. By contrast, prime development sites have generally experienced more rapid increases. For example, the Cottonwood Corporate Center project was developed on a super pad of roughly 40 acres. The original purchase price 12 years ago was $3.50 per square foot. The last subdivided parcel within the super pad sold for nearly $16.00 per square foot. There are multiple variables that explain the difference in price, with the primary variables being the profit earned through entitlement of the land and the subdivision process. However, during that time frame there has been at least a doubling of raw land value, which would imply a growth rate of six percent annually. Office WEPC projects demand at 208,383 square feet of office space annually, based on the average office construction of 1,041,914 square feet over the last five years, and a 20 percent capture rate. This appears reasonable for the vertical construction. However, the land would be sold much more quickly. At the values concluded, land banking would be anticipated. A five year absorption is projected for the full relocation and a seven year projection is made for the partial scenario. Industrial The industrial market was strong in 2004 with high absorption compared to the previous years. WEPC assumes 100,000 square feet of space absorption per year, which would equate to a ±10-year build-out. However, again, the land would be taken down more quickly. A projection is made at five and seven years for the full and partial relocation scenarios. Business Park This land is likely to sell in the same time frame as the office and industrial land, projected at five years under both scenarios. Other Commuter rail, institutional, mixed-use, neighborhood and regional retail land has been incorporated on a pro-rata basis into the residential land areas and is absorbed accordingly. • Market Conditions. Values are projected to trend upward over time. There are likely to be periods of stagnation and potentially even deflation; however, the general trend is expected to be upward, and at a rate in excess of inflation. This land is centrally located between Salt Lake and Utah Counties. There is a diminishing supply of such land along the I-15 corridor, and supply/demand factors alone suggest that as time goes on this tract will become more desirable. Cottonwood Corporate Center has been particularly successful. However, other areas of the valley have seen similar rates of appreciation, measurably in excess of standard inflation. Given the subject’s advantageous location coupled with the declining inventory of such land along I-15, a six percent annual appreciation factor is reasonably projected. • Development Costs. Costs of development include spine infrastructure construction costs, and marketing, carrying and closing costs. Profit is also a necessary cost considered here. Construction Costs. It is anticipated the master developer will minimize construction obligations to the extent possible. However, certain primary roads will have to be built. (It is assumed all entitlement work has already been accomplished.) It is projected that 15,840 and 29,040 lineal feet of primary road, together with necessary utility work will have to be installed by the master developer under the partial and full relocation mixed-use scenarios, respectively. Under a residential development full relocation the lineal feet of roadway estimated at 20,000 lineal feet. A cost for this road work of $600 per lineal foot is projected in present dollar terms. Infrastructure costs are incurred on a per acre basis at the pace of development. Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 17 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Marketing Costs. Promotional and marketing efforts would be coordinated in-house, but outside broker participation would be encouraged. A marketing cost, including promotional efforts and commissions could be accomplished at two percent of gross sales given the dollar magnitude of transactions. As to the investment value scenario, the discount rate is the state’s cost of capital rate, which is reported to be 3.65 percent. • Carrying Costs. Carrying costs comprise primarily property management and payment of real estate taxes. Under the investment value scenario, the property prior to sale is not taxable. Carrying costs are estimated at 0.25 and 0.15 percent of gross sales under the market value and investment value scenarios. Closing Costs. Closing costs are projected at 0.5 percent of gross sales. Profit. Developers are motivated by the opportunity of earning profit through the development effort. In this case, we are assuming the tract is already entitled, which is a process that yields a relatively significant portion of development profit. The remaining efforts include constructing certain infrastructure and marketing the pods. A 10 percent factor is projected under the market value scenario, which includes an overhead factor. Under investment value, the work can be handled inhouse by the state but there is still an overhead cost to be allocated. A two percent factor is projected under this scenario. • Discount Rate. The discount rate is a weighted average rate between equity and debt, and should reflect inflationary pressures since prices are projected to increase with inflation as well as in real terms. It is important to note that profit is deducted as a line item so that the discount rate is net of profit. Equity can be obtained at a cost of 15 to 20 percent. Debt is currently quite cheap but over a longer term project, upward pressure should be anticipated. At an 18 percent equity rate and an eight percent average debt rate, assuming a 60 percent loan to value, the weighted average discount rate would be 12 percent. This is reasonable considering that profit is already accounted for. Public Review Draft Summary. Discounted cash flows are presented on the following pages. L.E.C.G. 18 Market Value - Full Relocation – Mixed Use D I SC O U N T ED C A SH F L O W A N A L Y SI S FULL RELOCATION - MARKET VALUE FULL RELOCATION - MARKET VALUE Period Period Period Period Period Period Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 TOTAL 27-Oct-05 IN CO M E Office Land - 85 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Office Land 17 17 17 17 17 165,000 174,900 185,394 196,518 208,309 2,805,000 2,973,300 3,151,698 3,340,800 3,541,248 15,812,046 85 Business Park Land - 85 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Single Family 17 17 17 17 17 130,000 137,800 146,068 154,832 164,122 2,210,000 2,342,600 2,483,156 2,632,145 2,790,074 12,457,975 71 Industrial Land - 71 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Industrial 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 100,000 106,000 112,360 119,102 126,248 1,420,000 1,505,200 1,595,512 1,691,243 1,792,717 Single-Family Land - 127 Acres* Price Per Acre Sub Total - Single Family Sub Total - Multi-Family 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 178,080 188,765 200,091 212,096 224,822 238,311 3,048,007 3,230,888 3,424,741 3,630,225 3,848,039 4,078,921 4,323,656 25,584,478 232 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 208,000 220,480 233,709 247,731 262,595 278,351 295,052 6,893,723 7,307,347 7,745,787 8,210,535 8,703,167 9,225,357 9,778,878 Total Number of Acres Sold Total Sales: 8,004,672 168,000 Multi-Family Land - 232 Acres* Price Per Acre 85 127 57,864,793 99 99 99 99 99 51 51 600 16,376,730 17,359,334 18,400,894 19,504,948 20,675,245 13,304,278 14,102,535 119,723,964 EX P EN SES Marketing/Commissions: 327,535 347,187 368,018 390,099 413,505 266,086 282,051 2,394,479 Closing Costs: 81,884 86,797 92,004 97,525 103,376 66,521 70,513 598,620 Real Estate Taxes: 74,827 64,592 53,742 42,242 30,051 17,129 8,814 291,398 Spine Infrastructure 4,078,684 4,180,651 4,285,167 4,392,296 4,502,104 2,335,094 2,393,471 26,167,466 Profit 1,637,673 1,735,933 1,840,089 1,950,495 2,067,524 1,330,428 1,410,253 11,972,396 NET INCOME: 10,176,128 10,944,175 11,761,873 12,632,291 13,558,684 PRESENT VALUE of NET INCOME: $51,105,234 Rounded To: $51,110,000 * Includes a prorata share of commuter rail station, institututional, neighborhood retail, regional retail and mixed-use land. 9,289,020 9,937,433 78,299,604 Market Value - Partial Relocation – Mixed Use D I SC O U N T ED C A SH F L O W A N A L Y SI S PARTIAL RELOCATION - MARKET VALUE PARTIAL RELOCATION - MARKET VALUE Period Period Period Period Period Period Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 TOTAL 27-Oct-05 IN CO M E Office Land - 134 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Office Land Business Park Land - 97 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Single Family Industrial Land - 104 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Industrial Multi-Family Land - 105 Acres* Price Per Acre Sub Total - Multi-Family Total Number of Acres Sold Total Sales: 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 165,000 174,900 185,394 196,518 208,309 220,807 234,056 3,158,579 3,348,093 3,548,979 3,761,918 3,987,633 4,226,891 4,480,504 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 130,000 137,800 146,068 154,832 164,122 2,522,000 2,673,320 2,833,719 3,003,742 3,183,967 14,216,748 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 106,000 112,360 119,102 126,248 133,823 141,852 1,485,710 1,574,853 1,669,344 1,769,504 1,875,675 1,988,215 2,107,508 35.0 35.0 35.0 220,480 233,709 7,280,000 7,716,800 8,179,808 26,512,595 97 100,000 208,000 134 104 12,470,809 105 23,176,608 88 88 88 53 53 34 34 440 14,446,289 15,313,066 16,231,850 8,535,164 9,047,274 6,215,106 6,588,012 76,376,760 EX P EN SES Marketing/Commissions: 288,926 306,261 324,637 170,703 180,945 124,302 131,760 1,527,535 Closing Costs: 72,231 76,565 81,159 42,676 45,236 31,076 32,940 381,884 Carrying Costs 47,735 38,707 29,136 18,991 13,656 8,002 4,118 160,345 Spine Infrastructure 2,847,978 2,919,178 2,992,157 3,066,961 3,143,635 2,037,645 2,088,586 19,096,140 Profit 1,444,629 1,531,307 NET INCOME: 9,744,789 10,441,048 PRESENT VALUE of NET INCOME: $33,848,257 * Includes 15 acres for commuter rail station and 8 acres for neighborhood retail. 1,623,185 11,181,575 Rounded To: 853,516 904,727 621,511 658,801 7,637,676 4,382,317 4,759,073 $33,850,000 3,392,571 3,671,807 47,573,180 Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 19 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Investment Value - Full Relocation – Mixed Use D I SC O U N T ED C A SH F L O W A N A L Y SI S FULL RELOCATION - INVESTMENT VALUE FULL RELOCATION - INVESTMENT VALUE Period Period Period Period Period Period Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 TOTAL 27-Oct-05 IN CO M E Office Land - 85 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Office Land Business Park Land - 85 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Single Family Industrial Land - 71 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Industrial Single-Family Land - 127 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Single Family Multi-Family Land - 232 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Multi-Family 17 17 17 17 17 165,000 174,900 185,394 196,518 208,309 2,805,000 2,973,300 3,151,698 3,340,800 3,541,248 15,812,046 85 17 17 17 17 17 130,000 137,800 146,068 154,832 164,122 2,210,000 2,342,600 2,483,156 2,632,145 2,790,074 12,457,975 71 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 100,000 106,000 112,360 119,102 126,248 1,420,000 1,505,200 1,595,512 1,691,243 1,792,717 8,004,672 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 168,000 178,080 188,765 200,091 212,096 224,822 238,311 3,048,007 3,230,888 3,424,741 3,630,225 3,848,039 4,078,921 4,323,656 25,584,478 232 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 208,000 220,480 233,709 247,731 262,595 278,351 295,052 6,893,723 7,307,347 7,745,787 8,210,535 8,703,167 9,225,357 9,778,878 Total Number of Acres Sold Total Sales: 85 127 57,864,793 99 99 99 99 99 51 51 600 16,376,730 17,359,334 18,400,894 19,504,948 20,675,245 13,304,278 14,102,535 119,723,964 EX P EN SES Marketing/Commissions: 327,535 347,187 368,018 390,099 413,505 266,086 282,051 2,394,479 Closing Costs: 81,884 86,797 92,004 97,525 103,376 66,521 70,513 598,620 Real Estate Taxes: 44,896 38,755 32,245 25,345 18,031 10,278 5,288 174,839 4,078,684 4,180,651 4,285,167 4,392,296 4,502,104 2,335,094 2,393,471 26,167,466 327,535 347,187 368,018 390,099 413,505 266,086 282,051 2,394,479 NET INCOME: 11,516,197 12,358,758 13,255,441 14,209,584 15,224,724 PRESENT VALUE of NET INCOME: $76,523,400 Rounded To: $76,520,000 * Includes a prorata share of commuter rail station, institututional, neighborhood retail, regional retail and mixed-use land. 10,360,214 11,069,161 87,994,080 Spine Infrastructure Profit Investment Value - Partial Relocation – Mixed Use D I SC O U N T ED C A SH F L O W A N A L Y SI S PARTIAL RELOCATION - INVESTMENT VALUE PARTIAL RELOCATION - INVESTMENT VALUE Period Period Period Period Period Period Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 TOTAL 27-Oct-05 IN CO M E Office Land - 134 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Office Land Business Park Land - 97 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Single Family Industrial Land - 104 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Industrial Multi-Family Land - 105 Acres* Price Per Acre Sub Total - Multi-Family Total Number of Acres Sold Total Sales: 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 165,000 174,900 185,394 196,518 208,309 220,807 234,056 3,158,579 3,348,093 3,548,979 3,761,918 3,987,633 4,226,891 4,480,504 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 130,000 137,800 146,068 154,832 164,122 2,522,000 2,673,320 2,833,719 3,003,742 3,183,967 14,216,748 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 106,000 112,360 119,102 126,248 133,823 141,852 1,485,710 1,574,853 1,669,344 1,769,504 1,875,675 1,988,215 2,107,508 35.0 35.0 35.0 220,480 233,709 7,280,000 7,716,800 8,179,808 26,512,595 97 100,000 208,000 134 104 12,470,809 105 23,176,608 88 88 88 53 53 34 34 440 14,446,289 15,313,066 16,231,850 8,535,164 9,047,274 6,215,106 6,588,012 76,376,760 EX P EN SES Marketing/Commissions: 288,926 306,261 324,637 170,703 180,945 124,302 131,760 1,527,535 Closing Costs: 72,231 76,565 81,159 42,676 45,236 31,076 32,940 381,884 Carrying Costs 28,641 23,224 17,482 11,395 8,194 4,801 2,471 96,207 2,847,978 2,919,178 2,992,157 3,066,961 3,143,635 2,037,645 2,088,586 19,096,140 288,926 306,261 Spine Infrastructure Profit NET INCOME: 11,208,512 11,987,837 PRESENT VALUE of NET INCOME: $49,374,209 * Includes 15 acres for commuter rail station and 8 acres for neighborhood retail. 324,637 12,816,415 Rounded To: Public Review Draft 170,703 180,945 124,302 131,760 1,527,535 5,243,429 5,669,263 $49,370,000 4,017,282 4,332,255 55,274,994 L.E.C.G. 20 Market Value – Full Relocation – Residential Use D I SC O U N T ED C A SH F L O W A N A L Y SI S FULL RELOCATION - INVESTMENT VALUE - RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FULL RELOCATION - INVESTMENT VALUE Period Period Period 1 2 3 TOTAL 27-Oct-05 IN CO M E Commercial/Retail - 24 Acres 24.0 Price Per Acre 24 208,000 Sub Total - Industrial 4,992,000 Single-Family Land - 416 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Single Family 138.7 138.7 138.7 168,000 178,080 188,765 23,296,056 24,693,819 26,175,449 74,165,324 183 Multi-Family Land - 183 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Multi-Family 4,992,000 61.0 61.0 61.0 208,000 220,480 233,709 12,688,000 13,449,280 14,256,237 Total Number of Acres Sold 416 40,393,517 224 200 200 623 40,976,056 38,143,099 40,431,685 119,550,841 Marketing/Commissions: 819,521 762,862 808,634 2,391,017 Closing Costs: 204,880 190,715 202,158 597,754 44,832 29,466 15,162 89,459 4,667,833 4,784,529 4,904,142 14,356,504 762,862 808,634 2,391,017 31,612,665 33,692,956 $92,890,178 Rounded To: 99,725,090 Total Sales: EX P EN SES Real Estate Taxes: Spine Infrastructure Profit 819,521 NET INCOME: PRESENT VALUE of NET INCOME: 34,419,469 $92,890,000 Investment Value – Full Relocation – Residential Use D I SC O U N T ED C A SH F L O W A N A L Y SI S FULL RELOCATION - INVESTMENT VALUE - RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FULL RELOCATION - INVESTMENT VALUE Period Period Period 1 2 3 TOTAL 27-Oct-05 I N CO M E Commercial/Retail - 24 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Industrial Single-Family Land - 416 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Single Family Multi-Family Land - 183 Acres Price Per Acre Sub Total - Multi-Family Total Number of Acres Sold Total Sales: 24.0 24 208,000 4,992,000 4,992,000 138.7 138.7 138.7 168,000 178,080 188,765 23,296,056 24,693,819 26,175,449 74,165,324 183 61.0 61.0 61.0 208,000 220,480 233,709 12,688,000 13,449,280 14,256,237 416 40,393,517 224 200 200 623 40,976,056 38,143,099 40,431,685 119,550,841 EX P EN SES Marketing/Commissions: 819,521 762,862 808,634 2,391,017 Closing Costs: 204,880 190,715 202,158 597,754 44,832 29,466 15,162 89,459 4,667,833 4,784,529 4,904,142 14,356,504 819,521 762,862 808,634 2,391,017 Real Estate Taxes: Spine Infrastructure Profit NET INCOME: PRESENT VALUE of NET INCOME: 34,419,469 31,612,665 33,692,956 $92,890,178 Rounded To: Public Review Draft 99,725,090 $92,890,000 APPENDIX B 21 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Reconciliation and Final Value Estimates Only one valuation was conducted for each of the scenarios addressed. Therefore, final values are those concluded above. They are made subject to the various hypothetical conditions and extraordinary assumptions expressed throughout this report. The applicable valuation date is August 17, 2005. However, it will be several years before this property could be developed, and several years before it would be attractive for the uses assumed herein. Final values are summarized as follows Summary of Value Estimates Valuation Market Investment Scenario Value Value Highest & Best Use $72,200,000 $92,890,000 (residential development) Full Relocation $51,110,000 $76,520,000 (mixed-use development) Partial Relocation $33,850,000 $49,370,000 (mixed-use development) Not included in the preceding values are the following: Draper Irrigation Shares: East Jordan Irrigation Shares: State Water Right 57-8313 (domestic) State Water Right 57-8412 (geothermal) Total $ 381,500 1,241,250 292,500 18,000 $1,933,250 Public Review Draft L.E.C.G. 22 APPENDIX B ADDENDA COMPLETE APPRAISAL SUMMARY REPORT Located at 14400 South Pony Express Road Draper, Utah Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 23 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Neighborhood Map Public Review Draft L.E.C.G. 24 Property Plat Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 25 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Legal Description PARCEL #33_01_300_005_0000 TOTAL ACRES 689.23 STATE OF UTAH DEPARTMENT OF ADM SERV DIV FAC CONST & MGMNT LOC: 14717 S MINUTEMAN DR EDIT 0 BOOK 8563 PAGE 4290 DATE 02/12/2003 BEG S 89¬58'46" E ALG SEC LINE 1038.34 FT FR NW COR SEC 1, T 4S, R 1W, SLM; S 89¬58'46" E 307.925 FT; S 0¬58'09" W 2610.66 FT; S 89¬46'52" E 3802.39 FT; S 0¬13'03" W 37.6 FT; S 0¬13'03" W 2469.575 FT; SW'LY ALG A CURVE TO R (CHORD S 19¬33'18" W 1200.3 FT); S 37¬54'46" W 438.58 FT; S 89¬35'19" E 788.73 FT; S 0¬21'24" W 664.93 FT; S 54¬36'21" W 787.85 FT; S 0¬38'36" W 1066.5 FT; SW'LY ALG A 1469.65 FT RADIUS CURVE TO R 357.46 FT; S 50¬47'55" W 541.79 FT; N 0¬36'36" E 1468.4 FT; N 89¬31'32" W 2666.41 FT; N 0¬34'36" E 552.95 FT; N 89¬53'19" W 50 FT; N 0¬34'36" E 822.53 FT; N 89¬35'19" W 772.53 FT; S 0¬34'36" W 50 FT; N 89¬35'19" W 508.58 FT; S 89¬42'03" W 1400.31 FT; N 0¬55'34" E 1319.88 FT; S 89¬31'31" E 79.61 FT; N 0¬34'54" E 1440.32 FT M OR L TO N LINE BANGERTER HWY; NE'LY ALG A 2116.14 FT RADIUS CURVE TO L 355.42 FT M OR L; N 28¬45'39" E ALG W'LY LINE RR 4270.24 FT TO BEG. LESS & EXCEPT STATE HWYS, CANALS, & RAILROADS. ALSO LESS & EXCEPT BEG N 0¬21'24" E ALG SEC LINE 1329.87 FT & N 89¬35'19" W 33.31 FT FR E 1/4 COR SEC 12, T 4S, R 1W, SLM; S 0¬21'24" W 33 FT; N 89¬35'19" W 195.37 FT; NE'LY ALG A CURVE TO L 39.5 FT; S 89¬35'19" E 173.63 FT TO BEG. 689.23 AC M OR L. 7531_0651 7778_1370 THRU 1387 7937_2048 8486_0087 8529_6742 Public Review Draft L.E.C.G. 26 Aerial Photogrpah Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 27 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Boundaries For Prison Relocation – Full and Partial Public Review Draft L.E.C.G. 28 Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 29 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah CERTIFICATION 9. We certify that we have made an investigation and analysis of the following property: DRAPER PRISON PROPERTY OWNED BY UTAH DEPARTMENT OF ADMINISTRATION AND CORRECTIONS 10. 11. Located at 14400 South Pony Express Road, Draper, Utah Salt Lake County Assessor's Parcel No. 33:01:300:005 12. We certify that to the best of our knowledge and belief: 13. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. The statements of fact contained in this report are true and correct. The reported analyses, opinions and conclusions are limited only by the reported assumptions and limiting conditions, and are our personal, impartial, and unbiased professional analyses, opinions, and conclusions. We have no present or prospective interest in the property that is the subject of this report, and we have no personal interest with respect to the parties involved. We have no bias with respect to the property that is the subject of this report or to the parties involved with this assignment. Our engagement in this assignment was not contingent upon developing or reporting predetermined results. Our compensation for completing this assignment is not contingent upon the development or reporting of a predetermined value or direction in value that favors the cause of the client, the amount of the value opinion, the attainment of a stipulated result, or the occurrence of a subsequent event directly related to the intended use of this appraisal. Our analyses, opinions, and conclusions were developed, and this report was prepared in conformity with the Uniform Standard of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP), and the Code of Professional Ethics and Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice of the Appraisal Institute. J. Philip Cook and Virginia Hylton have made a personal inspection of the property that is the subject of this report. 14. 15. 16. Tiffany Hall provided research assistance. We have also relied heavily on economic and land use analysis provided by Wikstrom Economic and Planning Consultants. The use of this report is subject to the requirements of the Appraisal Institute, relating to review by its duly authorized representatives. J. Philip Cook has completed the requirements of the continuing education program of the Appraisal Institute. The value conclusion as well as other opinions expressed herein, are not based on a requested minimum valuation, a specific valuation, or the approval of a loan. Our state appraisal certification/registrations have not been revoked, suspended, canceled, or restricted. The undersigned hereby acknowledge that they have the appropriate education and experience to complete the assignment in a competent manner. The reader is referred to the appraisers' Statement of Qualifications. J. Philip Cook is currently a Certified General Appraiser in the State of Utah #5451057-CG00. Virginia Hylton is currently a Certified General Appraiser in the State of Utah #5485650-CG00. Dated: October 18, 2005 Philip Cook, MAI, CRE Utah State-Certified General Appraiser Certificate 5451057-CG00 Expires 06-30-07 Virginia H. Hylton, Appraiser Utah State - Certified General Appraiser Certificate 5485650-CG00 Expires 04-30-07 Public Review Draft L.E.C.G. 30 ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS 8. The appraisers assume no responsibility for hidden or unapparent conditions of the property, subsoil, or structures that render it more or less valuable. No responsibility is assumed for arranging for engineering studies that may be required to discover them. 9. The property is appraised assuming it to be in full compliance with all applicable federal, state, and local environmental regulations and laws, unless otherwise stated. This appraisal has been based on the following limiting conditions: 1. For purposes of this appraisal, any marketing program for the sale of the property would assume cash or its equivalent. 2. No detailed soil studies covering the subject property were available for this appraisal. It is therefore assumed that soil conditions are adequate to support standard construction consistent with highest and best use. 3. The date of value to which the conclusions and opinions expressed in this report apply, is set forth in the letter of transmittal. Further, the dollar amount of any value opinion rendered in this report is based upon the purchasing power of the American dollar existing on that date. 4. The appraisers assume no responsibility for economic or physical factors which may affect the opinions in this report which occur after the valuation date. 5. The appraisers reserve the right to make such adjustments to the analyses, opinions and conclusions set forth in this report as may be required by consideration of additional data or more reliable data that may become available. 6. 7. No opinion as to title is rendered. Data relating to ownership and legal description was obtained from the client or public records and is considered reliable. Title is assumed to be marketable and free and clear of all liens, encumbrances, easements and restrictions except those specifically discussed in the report. The property is appraised assuming it to be under responsible ownership and competent management, and available for its highest and best use. If no title policy was made available to the appraisers, they assume no responsibility for such items of record not disclosed by their customary investigation. 10. The property is appraised assuming that all applicable zoning and use regulations and restrictions have been complied with, unless otherwise stated. 11. The property is appraised assuming that all required licenses, certificates of occupancy, consents, or other legislative or administrative authority from any local, state, or national government or private entity or organization have been or can be obtained or renewed for any use on which the value estimate contained in this report is based, unless otherwise stated. No engineering survey has been made by the appraiser. Except as specifically stated, data relative to size and area was taken from sources considered reliable and no encroachment of real property improvements is considered to exist. 13. No opinion is expressed as to the value of subsurface oil, gas or mineral rights or whether the property is subject to surface entry for the exploration or removal of such materials except as is expressly stated. 14. Maps, plats and exhibits included in this report are for illustration only as an aid in visualizing matters discussed within the report. They should not be considered as surveys or relied upon for any other purpose, nor should they be removed from, reproduced, or used apart from the report. 15. No opinion is intended to be expressed for matters which require legal expertise or specialized investigation or knowledge beyond that customarily employed by real estate appraisers. 16. Possession of this report, or copy of it, does not carry with it the right of publication. It may not Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 31 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah be used for any purpose by any person other than the party to whom it is addressed without the written consent of the appraiser, and in any event only with proper written qualification and only in its entirety. 17. Testimony or attendance in court or at any other hearing is not required by reason of rendering this appraisal, unless such arrangements are made a reasonable time in advance. 18. The appraisers have personally inspected the subject property and find no obvious evidence of structural deficiencies, except as may be stated in this report; however, no responsibility for hidden defects or conformity to specific governmental requirements, such as fire, building and safety, earthquake or occupancy codes can be assumed without provision of specific professional or government inspections. 19. Unless otherwise noted, no consideration has been given in this appraisal to the value of the property located on the premises which is considered by the appraisers to be personal property, nor has consideration been given to the cost of moving or relocating such personal property; only the real property has been considered. 20. Information obtained for use in this appraisal is believed to be true and correct to the best of our ability; however, no responsibility is assumed for errors or omissions, or for information not disclosed which might otherwise affect the valuation estimate. 21. Unless otherwise stated in this report, the appraisers signing this report have no knowledge concerning the presence or absence of toxic materials in the improvements and/or hazardous waste on the land. No responsibility is assumed for any such conditions or for any expertise or engineering to discover them. 22. Disclosure of the contents of this appraisal report is governed by the Bylaws and Regulations of the Appraisal Institute. is connected, or any reference to the Appraisal Institute or to the MAI designation) shall be disseminated to the public through advertising media, public relations media, news media, sales media, or any other public means of communication without the prior written consent and approval of the appraiser. 23. This is a Summary Appraisal Report which is intended to comply with the reporting requirements set forth under Standard Rule 2-2(b) of the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice for a Summary Appraisal Report. As such, it might not include full discussions of the data, reasoning, and analyses that were used in the appraisal process to develop the appraiser's opinion of value. Supporting documentation concerning the data, reasoning, and analyses is retained in the appraiser's file. The information contained in this report is specific to the needs of the client and for the intended use stated in this report. The appraiser is not responsible for unauthorized use of this report. 24. Unless otherwise stated in this report, the existence of hazardous substances, including without limitation asbestos, polychlorinated biphenyl, petroleum leakage, or agricultural chemicals, which may or may not be present on the property, or other environmental conditions, were not called to the attention of nor did the appraisers become aware of such during the appraiser's inspection. The appraisers have no knowledge of the existence of such materials on or in the property unless otherwise stated. The appraisers, however, are not qualified to test such substances or conditions. If the presence of such substances, such as asbestos, urea formaldehyde foam insulation, or other hazardous substances or environmental conditions, may affect the value the property, the value estimated is predicated on the assumption that there is no such condition on or in the property or in such proximity thereto that it would cause a loss in value. No responsibility is assumed for any such conditions, nor for any expertise or engineering knowledge required to discover them. Neither all nor any part of the contents of this report (especially any conclusions as to value, the identity of the appraiser or the firm with which he Public Review Draft L.E.C.G. 32 25. The Americans with Disabilities Act ("ADA") became effective January 26, 1992. We have not made a specific compliance survey and analysis of this property to determine whether or not it is in conformity with the various detailed requirements of the ADA. It is possible that a compliance survey of the property, together with a detailed analysis of the requirements of the ADA, could reveal that the property is not in compliance with one or more of the requirements of the Act. If so, this fact could have a negative effect upon the value of the property. Since we have no direct evidence relating to this issue, we did not consider possible noncompliance with the requirements of ADA in estimating the value of the Property. 26. Extraordinary assumptions and hypothetical conditions invoked in this report are: • The concept of market value ties to highest and best use of property. The immediate market-driven highest and best use is different than the desired longterm re-use. That is, the market would quickly absorb this acreage at relatively high prices for nearterm residential development in the event of a full relocation of the prison. However, residential housing alone, while potentially maximizing present value, does not maximize community benefits or the long-term potential of the property. • Related to the foregoing is the assumption that necessary zoning is first procured and general development entitlements earned from the applicable jurisdiction. The values therefore reflect the assumption of general entitlement. • Investment value is specific to the State of Utah. The State of Utah has a AAA Bond Rating. The current 10-year bond rate for AAA-rated borrowers as of September 14, 2005 is 3.65 percent. This is the State’s assumed cost of capital and the discount rate used to calculate investment value. • Market value assumes a discount rate of 12 percent which is market supported. • The values assume a grade-separated interchange will be provided at Bangerter Highway and 13800 South. Costs of construction have not been deducted from the estimated values on the assumption funds would come from other state and federal agencies. Public Review Draft APPENDIX B 33 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah REFERENCES: 1. This definition of market value is taken from the final rule issued by the Department of Treasury, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (12CFR Part 34, August 24, 1990), which are the implementing regulations for Title XI of FIRREA. The definition is also supported by most regulatory agencies as follows: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System (CFR Parts 208 and 225, July 25, 1991); National Credit Union Administration (CFR Parts 701, 722, and 741, July 25, 1990); Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (12 CFR Part 323, August 20, 1990); Resolution Trust Corporation (12CFR Part 1608, August 22, 1990); Office of Thrift Supervision, Treasury (12CFR Parts 506, 545, 563, 564, and 571, August 23, 1990). This definition has been adopted by the Appraisal Institute in their Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice, and the Appraisal Foundation in the Uniform Standard of Professional Appraisal Practice (June 30, 1989, amended April 20, 1990 and June 5, 1990). 2. Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC). 3. American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers, The Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal, Second Edition. 4. The Appraisal Foundation, Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice, 2005 ed. (Washington, D.C.: The Appraisal Foundation, 2005), 1. 5. Ibid., 4. 6. Appraisal Institute, The Appraisal of Real Estate, Twelfth ed. (Chicago, Illinois: Appraisal Institute, 2001), 69. 7. Real Estate Appraisal Terminology, The American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers, the Society of Real Estate Appraisers, 1975, p.147. 8. Appraisal Institute, The Appraisal of Real Estate, Twelfth ed, (Chicago, Illinois: Appraisal Institute 2001), 305. Public Review Draft APPENDIX C Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah 1 APPENDIX C DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM MARKET AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH SUMMARY REPORT REGIONAL TRENDS Abstract: At present, the market for single family and multifamily homes is extremely strong in the fast-growing southern end of Salt Lake County. If marketed today, the prison land could be quickly absorbed as residential development. The office and industrial markets have been in a downturn, but now seem to be absorbing excess inventory that has been built in the past five to seven years. Office demand is a longerterm land use program for the site. Retail demand on the prison site will be limited by the large amount of regional retail that has recently been built, is under construction or is planned for the near term. Utah’s economy rebounded in 2004 after suffering the impacts of the national economic recession of 2001-2003. In fact, Utah’s economy outperformed the national economy in 2004. All standard economic measures reflect Utah’s recovery with the recovery expected to continue through 2005. Standard economic measures such as job growth, construction activity, defense spending, tourism, population growth and business starts were all positive for Utah. During the most recent economic downturn job losses in Utah occurred in the metropolitan area along the Wasatch Front. The technology sector experienced a 14.3 percent job loss between January 2001 and June 2004 and has been relatively slow to recover. While most other sectors added jobs in 2004, the technology sector lost a few hundred jobs. The State’s strongest job growth has come in professional and business services with a year-over increase in jobs of 5.2 percent second only to the construction sector which showed a 5.6 percent increase for the same period. The strength of the construction sector was also evident in total construction valuation. Utah has had two record setting years in a row for construction valuation. Total construction value in 2003 was $4.6 billion followed by $4.9 billion in 2004. The strong construction activity was due to strong net in-migration, low mortgage rates and solid employment gains. Historically, one of Utah’s strongest sectors has been defense spending. National defense spending grew by 12.1 percent in 2003. Utah’s 2003 defense spending increase was 24.7 percent. This growth has been driven by job shifts and military spending changes caused by base realignment activities and international conflicts. Defense spending is expected to continue to grow in Utah due to continuing conflicts overseas and the continued success of Hill Air Force Base. Utah tourism returned to the levels achieved during the 2002 Winter Olympic Games with 17.5 million non-residents visiting the state. Hotel occupancies increased to 65.3 percent. Nearly 3.4 million skiers visited Utah resorts in 2003-2004. Utah’s population growth is primarily driven through a high birth rate and a low death rate. However, Utah has experienced net in-migration for the past 14 years. Net in-migration dipped in 2002 and rebounded slightly in 2003. The rebound in net in-migration is attributable to the Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 2 strength of the Utah economy. Net in-migration can be expected to increase as long as Utah’s economy remains stronger than the nation as a whole. Part of what is attracting people to Utah is the strength in job growth. Utah gained more jobs overall than were lost in 2004. State economists tracked 30 firms announcing job additions of 50 or more, with seven firms announcing job subtractions of 50 or more. Utah's 2004 unemployment rate was 5.3 percent, just under the national unemployment rate of 5.5 percent (December 2004). Employment and Job Growth The construction sector led the state in job growth for 2004 (most likely fueled by low interest rates and rising employment). Business, education and health services all experienced job growth higher than the state average of 2.5 percent. The high technology sector has declined since 2001, with 9,492 jobs lost. In 2004, this industry continued to experience job loss in the first quarter, but appears to be stabilizing. The sector continued to lose jobs with over 1,000 jobs lost between 2002 and 2003 and another estimated 500 jobs lost in 2004. The majority of these losses occurred in the computer and peripheral equipment sector and the motion picture and video production sectors. However, current trends indicate a slowing in job losses for these sectors. The largest number of employers in the computer systems design sector, which employs roughly 19 percent of the state’s high tech workers, is located in southern Salt Lake County and northern Utah County. As illustrated below, the concentration of high technology establishments are within close proximity to the Draper Prison site. Although this industry sector is still on the rebound, wages tend to be much higher than the Utah average, and salaries for top managerial positions are competitive. The structure of employment in Salt Lake County and Utah County can be expressed in a location quotient (see Table C-1) which compares the regional or local share of employment by industrial sector to that of the state or nation. Typically, a deviation of +/- 25 percent indicates an over or under representation of a given employment sector in a local or regional econ- omy. Of particular interest is the degree of employment in the Professional and Business Services super sector, in which many of the activities associated with the computer and software industry are clustered. When compared to the nation, Utah does not have unusually high employment in Professional and Business Services, although Salt Lake County does show a relatively higher representation. The figure above illustrates the number of establishments in this super sector by ZIP Code for the Prison market area. By comparing Salt Lake and Utah Counties to the state at a finer level of industry detail (Tables C-2 and C-3), it is apparent that the share of professional and technical services sub-sector is overrepresented in this region. Professional and technical services include industries whose major output is human capital and is Table C-1: Location Quotient for Industry Super Sectors with U.S. as Base Area, 2003 Utah – Salt Lake Industry Utah County Statewide County Base Industry: Total, all 1 1 1 industries Natural Resources and Mining 0.82 0.29 0.49 Construction 1.27 1.11 1.4 Manufacturing 0.96 0.82 1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1.06 1.09 0.88 Information 1.13 1.27 1.86 Financial Activities 1.03 1.38 0.66 Professional and Business Services 1.02 1.21 1 Education and Health 0.83 0.75 1.23 Services Leisure and Hospitality 1.02 0.89 0.87 Other Services Unclassified Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Public Review Draft 0.8 0.79 0.81 0.07 0.08 0.09 APPENDIX C Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah 3 Table C-2: Location Quotient By Supersector, Utah as Base, 2003 thus reliant on a skilled workforce. Wages are typically higher in these industries and can be seen as an indicator of a workforce component that draws creative and skilled workers, as well as wealth. Relevant occupations to the high tech field fall under this industry sub-sector as well as other professions such as accounting, architecture, engineering, law and most consulting services. Salt Lake County also appears to have a higher representation of employment in the Management of Companies and Enterprises sub-sector, which also would offer higher compensation to its senior employees. Although the number of jobs in this sub-sector has fallen between 2001 and 2003, the economy appears to be rebounding and there is every indication that the importance of these jobs in creating wealth for the region overall will continue to grow. The well paying jobs in the health field continue to grow as they have in the past few years, and this sub sector also represents a healthy share of the regional economy, particularly in Utah County. Salt Lake Utah Utah County Statewide Salt Lake County ‘01-’03 Employment as County LQ LQ AAGR % of Total Industry Base Industry: Total, all industries Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Unclassified Utah County ’01-’03 AAGR 100% 1.00 1.00 -1.5% -0.7% 1.3% 0.35 0.60 -7.4% 0.3% 7.9% 13% 0.88 0.85 1.10 1.04 -3.7% -3.0% -0.9% -5.7% 24.7% 1.03 0.83 -1.6% -0.4% 3.4% 1.12 1.65 -5.3% -3.4% 7.6% 1.34 0.64 0.2% 4.6% 15.2% 1.18 0.98 -2.3% -0.9% 12.3% 11.6% 0.90 0.87 1.48 0.86 2.3% 0.0% 3.1% -0.3% 3.2% 0.99 1.01 -0.6% -0.2% 0.01% 2.00 NC -8.8% -5.4% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Table C-3: Location Quotient By Subsector, Utah as Base, 2003 Salt Lake Utah Utah County County NAICS Three Digit Sector Salt Lake County 2001-2003 2001-2003 LQ County LQ AAGR AAGR NAICS 334 Computer and electronic product manufacturing 1.32 1.14 -7.1% -14.1% NAICS 335 Electrical equipment and appliance mfg. 1.27 1.52 -4.8% 4.2% NAICS 516 Internet publishing and broadcasting 0.96 3.19 -13.9% -10.4% NAICS 541 Professional and technical services 1.14 1.21 -1.3% -0.4% NAICS 551 Management of companies and enterprises 1.39 0.48 -2.4% -3.1% NAICS 621 Ambulatory health care services 0.99 1.08 2.6% 4.2% NAICS 622 Hospitals 0.98 1.17 2.0% 2.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Table C-4: Projected Population 2000 – 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 AARG Bluffdale Draper Herriman Lehi Riverton 4,728 25,487 1,801 19,028 25,228 8,747 39,881 20,390 31,302 45,588 24,144 45,556 28,963 44,437 49,346 41,940 50,077 38,256 48,975 51,773 7.50% 2.40% 10.70% 3.20% 2.40% Sandy South Jordan West Jordan 89,015 29,687 79,354 96,656 57,219 110,189 107,268 74,898 126,427 111,465 99,168 144,925 0.80% 4.10% 2.00% 2,305,652 2,833,337 3,486,218 4,086,319 1.90% 2002 2010 2020 2030 AARC 80,774 108,951 146,023 161,543 2.30% 1,392,275 1,697,725 2,084,097 2,493,070 2.00% State Source: Wasatch Front Regional Council, 2005 Table C-4a: Employment Growth 2000 – 2030 Employment Study Area State Sources: State of Utah, DEA 2005 and Wasatch Front Regional Council 2005 Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 4 Site Specific Trends Population growth and growth in housing starts has been well above the state average for the study area immediately surrounding the prison. A combination of low interest rates and a growing economy appear to be fueling this trend, as well as the preference of young families to buy new housing in the southwestern part of the valley. Much of this growth has been occurring since the 1990’s and, according to the most recent population and employment information, growth appears poised to continue for the foreseeable future. As noted, professional and technical services provide a healthy share of jobs in this area and could have some important implications for future site development, which is further explored in the section “Existing Land Characteristics and Potential for Redevelopment.” Total Households by Income in Study Area, 1999 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Le ss t $1 han 0, 00 $10 $1 0 to ,00 0 5, 0 0 $1 4 $2 0 to ,99 9 0, 0 0 $1 9 $2 0 to ,99 9 5, 0 0 $2 4 $3 0 to ,99 9 0, 0 0 $2 9 $3 0 to ,99 9 5, 0 0 $3 4 $4 0 to ,99 9 0, 0 0 $3 9 $4 0 to ,99 9 5, $ 44 00 $5 0 to ,99 9 0, 0 0 $4 9 $6 0 to ,99 9 0, 0 0 $5 9 $7 0 to ,99 9 5, $ $1 000 74, 99 00 to ,0 $9 9 $1 00 9, 99 to 25 $ ,0 12 9 $1 00 4, to 99 50 9 $ ,0 0 0 149 ,9 to $2 $1 99 00 99 ,0 , 00 999 or m or e As of 2000, household structures indicated a higher percentage of family households in the study area with families larger than the state average as illustrated in Table C-5. This observation is further reinforced by the overall distribution of population, which clearly points to a high number of dependents (see population pyramid above). Table C-5: Percent of Individuals by Household Relationship, 2000 BluffRiverState dale Draper Lehi ton Sandy South Jordan West Jordan In Family Household 89.1% 97.5% 94.5% 96.8% 97.5% 93.8% 96.8% 94.5% Householder 24.8% 23.0% 23.9% 24.4% 21.9% 25.3% 24.3% 23.6% Spouse 20.2% 20.4% 22.9% 21.6% 21.5% 21.4% 21.3% 20.0% Child 37.8% 48.9% 42.1% 46.1% 47.7% 42.3% 47.4% 43.3% Grandchild 1.7% 2.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% Other Relative 3.1% 3.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 3.4% 1.4% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 5.5% 3.2% 2.5% 6.2% 3.2% 5.5% Non Relative 1.9% Non Family Household 10.9% Average Household Size 3.13 4.23 3.40 3.70 3.93 3.42 3.92 3.60 Source: 2000 Census, Herriman was not included due to dramatic growth and lack of population in 2000. Table C-6: Study Area Per Capita Income, 1999 Bluffdale $17,813 Draper $22,747 Lehi $16,074 Riverton $17,643 Sandy $22,928 South Jordan $20,938 West Jordan $17,221 Source: 2000 Census Incomes were moderate to high across the study area in 2000 (Table C-6). Draper, Sandy, and South Jordan exhibit notably higher per capita incomes associated with wealthier, more established communities. These traits are reflected in the pricing of housing submarkets within Draper and Sandy, though to a lesser extent in South Jordan, which is discussed in the section on housing supply and demand. The fact that most new housing starts are commanding a lower price than what many existing households in these communities could afford in 2000 given current interest rates, suggests a strong “move up” market which is not possi- Public Review Draft APPENDIX C Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah ble to detect with the 2000 Census statistics. This “move up” market includes newer households with slightly lower incomes who are inclined to buy homes in these preferred locations. Based on the characteristics of the existing communities as of 2000 and the types of units currently being built, this market appears to be made up of largely young families. 5 Vacant Lot Inventory by Price 33% 35% 30% 24% 25% 18% 20% 15% 9% 10% 5% 3% 5% 2% 2% 2% 3% 0% $40,000 - $50,000 - $60,000 - $70,000 - $80,000 - $90,000 - $100,000 $120,000 $150,000 $170,000 $49,999 $59,999 $69,999 $79,999 $89,999 $99,999 $119,999 $149,999 $169,999 $199,999 Lot Price Residential Analysis demand will remain strong in the area and are preparing to sell more lots in the future, or the demand for homes in the area has decreased and the developers have not yet scaled back development to better reflect actual demand. Since home starts have increased during the same period, it is clear the increase in vacant lot inventory is a sign that developers believe demand will continue to be strong in this area. Single Family Residential Supply Since the prison site would most likely involve largescale development, the subdivisions considered in this analysis comprise more than 50 units and are located with the surrounding cities of Draper, Sandy, Herriman, Bluffdale, Riverton, South Jordan and West Jordan. In an effort to avoid any outlier influence, the new construction and resale analysis excludes homes with a sales price under $125,000 or over $1,000,000. Vacant lot inventory (see figure above) illustrates demand while the price of vacant lots illustrates the cost of housing in the study area. It is assumed that land costs represent approximately one-third of the total housing price. Vacant lots priced between $50,000 and $69,999 are the most common prices in current inventory. These lots provide for homes priced between $150,000 and $210,000. Lots priced between $50,000 and $69,999 comprise 57 percent of the current vacant lot inventory. Vacant Lot Inventory The total inventory of vacant lots in the southern end of the Salt Lake Valley has increased over the past five quarters. For comparison, there are 1,114 more lots available in the study area today than one year ago (see figure below). An increasing inventory trend indicates one of two things. Either developers believe Vacant Lot Inventory Trend 4500 4094 4000 3688 3500 3000 3644 3296 2980 2500 2000 1500 Interestingly, two clusters of pricing for new construction exist in the study area. The first cluster is the 57 percent of inventory priced between $50,000 and $69,999 as previously mentioned. A sharp drop in inventory is seen with only 3 percent of inventory in the $70,000 to $79,999 price range, followed by another cluster of lots ranging from $80,000 to $99,999. These two clusters alone comprise 84 percent of all lots in the study area. This two cluster trend is seen both in Utah and Salt Lake Counties and indicates two primary price points from $150,000 to $210,000 and $240,000 to $300,000 for homes. 1000 500 0 2nd Quarter 2004 3rd Quarter 2004 4th Quarter 2004 1st Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 6 started in the second quarter of 2005, than were 44% started during the same 50% 40% quarter of 2004. Nearly 30% 94 percent of these home 14% 12% 12% 20% 9% 5% starts occurred in the Salt 3% 10% 1% 1% 0% Lake County portion of 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 the study area, while 28 9 99 99 99 99 ,9 ,9 ,9 ,9 29 -4 -6 -7 -9 17 21 11 13 r0 0 0 0 percent of all vacant lot e 0 0 0 0 00 00 00 00 nd 30 70 50 80 ,0 ,0 ,0 ,0 U 8 0 2 4 inventory is located in the 1 1 1 1 Utah County portion of Lot Square Foot the study area. Currently, most of the construction in the study area is happening at the southern end of Salt The lack of inventory above $100,000 indicates deLake County, but this trend is expected to move to the velopers and builders do not expect to sell a large northern portions of Utah County in the future as the volume of homes priced above $300,000. In fact, land supply is reduced. only four percent of lots provide for homes priced between $300,000 and $500,000. In comparison, 9.2 Overall, supply in the study area is stronger than it has percent of all Utah County vacant lots and 7.8 perbeen in the past five quarters. Both home starts and vacent of all Salt Lake County vacant lots fall within cant lot inventories have gradually increased over time. this same price range. Clearly, homes above Builders and developers believe demand will remain $300,000 are not as marketable in the study area as strong, and as a result, have been ramping up supply to they are in other parts of the Wasatch Front. meet future demand. The size of vacant lots can be helpful in identifying Demand demand characteristics. In many communities there is a close correlation between lot price and lot size. Demand is being driven by combined increases in employThis same two-cluster pattern in lot price does not ment and a desire on the part of younger families to reloexist in lot size as lots of identical sizes are selling for cate to this portion of the valley as noted earlier. Evidifferent prices. The strong supply of lots ranging dence that lends further support to these conclusions is from 3,000 to 6,999 square feet is not unique to the discussed in terms of absorption for larger subdivisions study area. Forty-five percent of all Utah County and activity in the resale market. inventory and 42 percent of all Salt Lake County inventory falls between 3,000 and 6,999 square feet. The size of lots in the Utah County portion of the study area is noteworthy. Eighty-three percent of all Utah County lot inventory in the study area falls in the 3,000 to 6,999 square foot range. Lots in the study area, and particularly in northern Utah County, are smaller than lots across the Wasatch Front. Home Starts Vacant Lot Inventory by Size Home Starts 950 Another dimension of housing supply is reflected in the number of home starts (see figure “Home Starts”). In the study area, home starts have gradually increased over the past five quarters. Sixty-eight more homes were 900 918 850 800 798 810 807 818 750 700 2nd Quarter 2004 3rd Quarter 2004 Public Review Draft 4th Quarter 2004 1st Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 APPENDIX C Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Absorption Analysis Average Annual Absorption for Single Family Residential Wikstrom analyzed a total of 75 subdivisions in Bluffdale, Draper, Sandy, Riverton, West Jordan, South Jordan and Herriman. The selection of subdivisions from these seven cities was limited by two criteria: each subdivision needed to be over 50 units when all phases were combined and each had to be under construction or newly constructed. Units Per Month 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 An extensive absorption analysis was conducted on each subdivision to determine the rate at which homes are being absorbed into the market. Overall findings illustrate the average absorption rate for large subdivisions was 2.8 units per month per subdivision from the day a subdivision was platted. 2002 Units Per Month 60.0 Bluffdale 50.0 Draper 40.0 Herriman Riverton Sandy 20.0 South Jordan 10.0 West Jordan 0.0 2004 2005 West Jordan and Herriman exhibit the highest demand in the market area averaging 46.8 and 49.7 sales per month respectively for the fortytwo month period. In contrast, Bluffdale shows the least activity in the new construction market averaging only 0.8 units sold per month for the last eighteen months. While the overall demand in the area is increasing, Sandy and Draper show decreasing demand. When looking at absorption by city, Sandy and Draper stand out. Between 2002 and 2004 new home sales in Draper have steadily decreased and 2005 sales data seems to confirm sales will continue to decline. Sandy subdivisions had an average absorption of 3.9 units per month between 2002 and 2005, 70.0 2003 2004 Total sales analyzed in the market area provide a more comprehensive view of the total study area market (see Table C-7). In the past 42 months (January 2002 through June 2005) the market absorbed 6,899 units, averaging 164.3 units per month. Trends in sales show increased demand and greater overall market capacity in the southern region of Salt Lake County. Current demand is higher with the market absorbing 3,371 units over the past 18 months, averaging 187.3 units every month. Average Annual Absorption Rate for Single Family Residential 2002 2003 Years * 2005 Covers January through July Only The fastest rate of absorption was observed at Rosecrest in Herriman with just over 19 units per month for 1,308 units over a 67 month period. Most subdivisions average between two and three units per month absorption rate. Subdivisions with over 200 units had absorption rates ranging roughly between five and ten units per month 30.0 7 2005 Year * 2005 Covers January through July Only Table C-7: Total Single Family Home Sales by Year and City Year of Sale 2002 2003 2004 2005 (Jan. – June) Grand Total Average Monthly Absorption per 18 Months Average Monthly Absorption per 42 Month Bluffdale Draper 311 334 3 285 Herriman 404 581 589 Riverton 174 149 266 Sandy 77 45 33 South Jordan 260 324 373 West Jordan 288 581 752 Grand Total 1,514 2,014 2,301 12 15 124 1,054 306 1,880 141 730 8 163 133 1,090 346 1,967 1,070 6,899 0.8 22.7 49.7 22.6 2.3 28.1 61.0 187.3 0.4 25.1 44.8 17.4 3.9 26.0 46.8 164.3 Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 8 Table C-8: Total Single Family Residential Sales by Month Year of Sale Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Grand Total 2002 88 92 133 131 133 134 128 143 115 161 129 127 1,514 2003 115 122 148 170 130 155 185 170 229 213 177 200 2,014 2004 141 155 191 193 201 208 217 232 199 192 172 200 2,301 2005 Grand Total 133 142 210 202 185 198 477 511 682 696 649 695 1,070 530 545 543 566 478 527 6,899 Source: Salt Lake Recorder’s Office whereas Bluffdale has seen very little single-family construction. Nonetheless, demand appears to be strong considering areas of the study area that contribute the largest overall number of units have experienced a gradual increase in sales since 2002. The number of units absorbed into the market per year has been steadily increasing the last four years. This shows an increasing demand for housing in the study area. The strength of demand is further illustrated by an increasing number of home starts. A portion of this strong demand is attributable to historically low interest rates. The strength of demand in the study area is also attributable, in part, to a healthy growing economy and steady population increases. The sales period of January to June has always comprised less than 50 percent of total sales for the year. If this trend continues into the future, 2005 will provide roughly the same new home sales as seen in 2004. The study area has seen 19 fewer new home sales than during the same time period of 2004. Similar to citywide trends, subdivisions in Herriman and West Jordan absorb faster than subdivisions in surrounding areas (see Table C-9). The average absorption rate for subdivisions in the study area is 2.8, while Herriman subdivisions average 5.7 homes per month. South Jordan and Riverton follow Herriman and West Jordan, which absorb 2.3 and 2.4 homes per month respectively. It is interesting to note two of the slowest absorbing communities, Draper and Sandy, are both located on the eastern side of I-15. The slower absorption in Draper and Sandy is most likely caused by higher prices, the fact that much of this market has already been brought to equilibrium and less land is available. Similarly, large lot zoning and limited land supply is constraining development in Bluffdale. Table C-9: Average Monthly Absorption for Single Family Residential Housing Subdivisions Since Date Platted 50-99 Bluffdale Draper Herriman Riverton Sandy South Jordan West Jordan Average Monthly Absorption Per Subdivision Number of Subdivisions Average Monthly Absorption Per Subdivision Number of Subdivisions Average Monthly Absorption Per Subdivision Number of Subdivisions Average Monthly Absorption Per Subdivision Number of Subdivisions Average Monthly Absorption Per Subdivision Number of Subdivisions Average Monthly Absorption Per Subdivision Number of Subdivisions Average Monthly Absorption Per Subdivision Number of Subdivisions Total Number of Subdivisions 100-149 150-200 >200 Grand Total 1.6 1 1.2 11 2.8 2 1.5 4 1.2 5 1.5 6 1.1 7 0 1.9 5 2.5 3 1.6 5 0 1.5 1 2.3 5 0 1.5 1 0 0 0 2.1 4 3.1 1 0 4.6 1 9.5 4 6.5 2 0 4.3 3 10.4 4 1.6 1 1.6 18 5.7 9 2.4 11 1.2 5 2.3 14 3.7 17 36 19 6 14 75 Public Review Draft APPENDIX C Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah MLS Sales Price Distribution Table C-10: MLS Sales Price Distribution Home Price Range Total Cumulative Percentage % 16% 3 0% 0% $100,000 - $124,999 8 0% 1% $125,000 - $149,999 70 4% 4% 10% $150,000 - $174,999 427 21% 26% 8% $175,000 - $199,999 342 17% 43% 4% $200,000 - $224,999 238 12% 55% 2% 10% 64% 151 8% 72% $275,000 - $299,999 126 6% 78% $300,000 - $324,999 83 4% 83% $325,000 - $349,999 72 4% 86% $350,000 - $374,999 57 3% 89% $375,000 - $399,999 47 2% 91% $400,000 - $449,999 50 3% 94% $450,000 - $499,999 40 2% 96% $500,000 -$599,999 37 2% 98% $600,000 - $749,999 28 1% 99% $750,000 - $999,999 10 1% 100% $1,000,000 – Above 7 0% 100% 457 100% Source: MLS Data West Jordan and Herriman subdivisions have sold more homes than any other cities in the study area. Developments in these two communities sold 3,847 homes in the past 42 months, or 56 percent of all sales in the study area. Bluffdale has experienced the lowest amount of sales with only two percent of total sales. This will likely increase in the future with newly approved projects moving into the market. Demand is being driven by a number of factors. The economy has been steadily growing, the birthrate and migration rate have provided the study area with a strong population base and interest rates have provided an unparalleled opportunity for home ownership. Demand will likely slow somewhat as interest rates are projected to rise in the near future. Resale Analysis Looking to recent absorption trends best illustrates demand. However, resale analysis also provides insight into the preferences of demand in the study area. For purposes of this study, home resales activity of the past three years was identified, for product aged less than five years at the time of sale. 13% 12% 6% 10% 11% 7% 7% 4% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 0% 25 , $1 000 50 , 0 $1 $1 00 49 75 - $ , 99 , 9 1 $2 000 74 00 - $ , 99 , 9 1 $2 000 99 ,9 25 ,0 $22 99 $2 00 4 50 - $ , 99 , 9 2 $2 000 49 75 - $ , 99 , 9 2 $3 000 74 ,9 00 ,0 $2 99 $3 00 99 25 - $ , 99 , 9 $3 000 324 50 - $ , 99 , 9 3 $3 000 49 ,9 75 ,0 $37 99 $4 00 4 00 - $ , 99 , 9 3 $4 000 99 50 - $ , 99 ,0 9 4 $5 00 49 , 00 - $ 99 $6 ,00 499 9 00 0 , $ 5 999 ,0 99 $7 00 50 - $ ,99 ,0 9 00 7 49 - $ ,9 9 9 99 9, 99 9 193 $250,000 - $274,999 14% $1 $225,000 - $249,999 17% 18% Under $99,999 Total 9 The majority of resale homes sold for between $150,000 and $300,000. Twenty-two percent of resales in the area were purchased for over $300,000 (see Table C-10). It is difficult to compare household incomes (Table C-11) with resale home prices as they describe two separate time periods. Because of recent high growth rates since 2000, demographic characteristics have certainly changed in the area. Resale home prices do not match up with household incomes in the study area. Typically, housing costs represent three times household income in any given area. In the study area recent data does not coincide with demographic data from 2000. This could be partially attributable to nointerest loans, but is more likely attributable to an increase in the number of young families over the past five years. Table C-11: Households by Income, 1999 Number of Households % of Total Cumulative Percentage Less than $10,000 1,907 2.5% 2.5% $10,000 to $14,999 1,398 1.8% 4.3% $15,000 to $19,999 1,914 2.5% 6.7% $20,000 to $24,999 2,620 3.4% 10.1% $25,000 to $29,999 2,960 3.8% 14.0% $30,000 to $34,999 3,827 4.9% 18.9% $35,000 to $39,999 3,662 4.7% 23.6% $40,000 to $44,999 4,823 6.2% 29.9% $45,000 to $49,999 4,364 5.6% 35.5% $50,000 to $59,999 9,125 11.8% 47.3% $60,000 to $74,999 12,215 15.8% 63.1% $75,000 to $99,999 14,336 18.5% 81.6% $100,000 to $124,999 7,215 9.3% 90.9% $125,000 to $149,999 3,175 4.1% 95.0% $150,000 to $199,999 2,183 2.8% 97.8% $200,000 or more 1,676 2.2% 100.0% Source: Census 2000 Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 10 In contrast, fifty-four percent of all new homes in the study area are located on lots smaller than 7,000 square feet. It is also interesting to note no new homes are being built on lots larger than 22,000 square feet. This is partially due to the small amount of construction in Bluffdale where larger lots have been commonplace. Table C-12: Lot Size Distribution Total Source: MLS Data 15% 15% 10%10% 9% 6% 3% 5% 2% 1% 1% New Home Inventory by Lot Size 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 41% 14% 99 0- 21 ,9 17 ,9 13 ,9 14 ,00 12 ,00 0- 010 ,00 1% 99 99 99 11 ,9 99 9 -9 99 9 80 00 -7 99 9 70 00 -6 99 9 50 00 -4 30 00 5% 3% 18 ,00 13% 10% 0- 12% 1% Un de r- The two distinct market segments mentioned in the new construction lot size are not as visible when looking at the size of resale lots (see Table C-12). The most common resale lot size is between 10,000 and 11,999 square feet. This explains why there are a greater proportion of upscale homes, which sell for over $300,000 in the resale data. Lot Size Range in SF Under - 2999 3000 - 4999 5000 - 6999 7000 - 7999 8000 - 9999 10,000 - 11,999 12,000 - 13,999 14,000 - 17,999 18,000 - 21,999 22,000 - 29,999 30,000 - 41,999 42,000 - Above 23% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 29 99 Lot Size MLS Lot Size Distribution Un de r29 30 99 00 -4 99 50 9 00 -6 9 70 99 00 -7 99 80 9 00 10 -9 ,0 9 99 00 -1 12 1 ,9 ,0 99 00 -1 14 3 ,9 ,0 99 00 -1 18 7 ,9 ,0 99 00 -2 22 1 ,9 ,0 99 00 -2 30 9 ,9 ,00 99 0 -4 42 1 ,9 ,0 99 00 -A bo ve Ninety-three percent of all new homes in the study area sold for under $300,000. This is dissimilar to the price distribution of resale homes where only 69 percent of homes sold for under $300,000. This discrepancy for home prices between new homes and resale homes is most likely due to the large number of luxury homes that have been built in Sandy and Draper over the past five years creating an excess of homes priced above $300,000 in the area. Lower interest rates also have allowed consumers to purchase more home for less money. The difference in the distribution of home prices can also be partially described by the luxury home market in northern Utah County. Alpine and Highland have been marketing larger luxury homes, which have taken a portion of this market away from Draper and Sandy. Lot Square Foot Table C-13 shows the price of resale homes per squarefoot. Surprisingly, the majority (55 percent) had a price of $75 per square foot or less. Homebuyers seem to be interested in fairly large homes with low cost per square-foot. However, these costs per square foot are artificially low, because they take into account some unfinished basement space. The prices are still useful assuming, on average, homes through-out these areas have the same amount of unfinished basement space. Table C-13: Price per Square Foot Total % 60 96 307 178 295 461 197 194 119 46 14 23 3% 5% 15% 9% 15% 23% 10% 10% 6% 2% 1% 1% 1,990 100% Cumulative Percentage 3% 8% 23% 32% 47% 70% 80% 90% 96% 98% 99% 100% Price/SF > $60 $60 - $65 $65 - $70 $70 - $75 $75 - $80 $80 - $85 $85 - $90 $90 - $95 $95 - $100 $100 - $110 $110 - $115 > $115 Total Source: MLS Data Public Review Draft 7% 14% 18% 16% 12% 9% 6% 6% 4% Cumulative Percentage 7% 21% 39% 55% 67% 77% 83% 89% 93% 74 4% 96% 23 48 1,990 1% 2% 100% 98% 100% Frequency 132 286 365 316 238 189 129 115 75 % APPENDIX C Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Table C-14: Single Family Home Resales Profile Number of Homes Sold Bluffdale Draper Herriman Lehi Riverton Sandy South Jordan West Jordan Total 11 Average Home SF Average Lot SF Average FAR Average Price Average Price/SF 10 480 273 110 249 137 281 450 4,865 3,639 2,822 2,929 3,175 3,882 3,626 2,751 39,465 11,088 13,882 8,672 12,746 10,369 11,846 9,636 0.13 0.56 0.28 0.72 0.28 0.66 0.46 0.34 $453,885 $321,371 $195,940 $212,602 $222,453 $352,499 $272,379 $190,594 $93.42 $87.21 $70.25 $73.62 $69.99 $89.65 $74.41 $70.97 1,990 3,250 11,417 0.44 $252,092 $76.70 Source: MLS Data The average price per square foot of $93.42 (121 percent of the average price/SF) in Bluffdale is clearly attracting a higher end market with larger homes on larger lots (see Table C-14). The average price of homes in Bluffdale is considerably more than the next highest priced communities of Draper and Sandy. The average lot size of .26 acres indicates average sized lots. Again, Bluffdale has the largest lot sizes while Herriman has the smallest lots. This is not surprising considering Bluffdale has traditionally zoned for a more rural feel, while Herriman has attracted subdivisions with an urban or suburban feel. This higher density is reflected in the price per square foot of homes in these communities. Bluffdale has the highest unadjusted price per square foot of $93.42 while Herriman has the lowest unadjusted price per square foot of $70.25. MLS Price Per SF 400 365 350 316 286 300 238 250 189 200 132 150 129 115 100 75 74 48 50 23 0 > $60 $60 $65 $65 $70 $70 $75 $75 $80 $80 $85 $85 $90 $90 $95 $95 $100 $100 - $110 - > $115 $110 $115 MLS Average Price/SF by City $100.00 $93.42 $89.65 $87.21 $90.00 $80.00 $70.25 $73.62 $74.41 $69.99 $70.97 $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 Herriman and West Jordan are offering similar resale products. They both cater to entry-level homes with an average sales price of $195,940 and $190,594 respectively. These two cities also share roughly the same square foot price of $70 and an average unit size close to 2800 square feet, although buyers in Herriman seem to be getting a slightly larger lot than those in West Jordan. Both of these areas have been active markets, with over one-third of all resale homes in the study area occurring in these two cities. $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $0.00 Bluffdale Draper Herriman Lehi Riverton Sandy South Jordan West Jordan MLS Average Home and Lot Square Footage by City 45,000 40,000 6,000 4,865 5,000 35,000 3,882 30,000 3,639 4,000 3,626 3,175 25,000 2,822 2,929 2,751 3,000 20,000 15,000 2,000 10,000 1,000 5,000 - Bluffdale Draper Herriman Lehi Public Review Draft Riverton Sandy South West Jordan Jordan Average Lot SF Average Home SF Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 12 MLS Average Home SF and Sales Price by City $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Attached Residential 6,000 5,000 Supply 4,000 3,000 Average Sales Price Average Home SF 2,000 1,000 Condominium and town home developments with over 50 units falling within a five-mile radius were taken into consideration for this study. - es tJ or da n Jo rd an W Sa nd y iv er to n So ut h H R Le hi an er rim ra pe r D Bl uf fd al e Attached home vacant lot inventory has not increased as much as detached single family housing lots. Currently there are 317 fewer vacant lots for attached housing in the area than seen a year Concluding Remarks ago. Part of this decrease is explained by strong sales Overall, growth in employment, in-migration and low inter- of attached housing during the second quarter of 2005. Despite the decrease in vacant lot inventory, condoest rates have caused strong housing demand in the study area. The strength of the housing market in the study area is minium starts do not decrease significantly in the secevidenced by an increasing absorption rate over time. Build- ond quarter of 2005, indicating a relatively steady supply of inventory, regardless of the decrease in vacant ers and developers have been successful in the recent past and expect similar demand to continue in the future. Natu- lot inventory. rally, the demand for housing in any area is a function of population, incomes and interest rates. If any of these vari- The price distribution of recently sold attached homes ables changes, it will affect the housing demand in the study is a relatively normal distribution with the most common price between $125,000 and $149,999 (see Figure area. “Attached Home Closings by Price”). Housing trends in these areas follow similar trends across the valley. On average, homes on the eastern side of I-15 cost more and are larger than homes on the western side of the interstate. Homes in Bluffdale provide an exception to this general rule due to the rural zoning which has been in place for a number of years. New home sales in Sandy and Draper have tapered off in the past four years and are costing more than other new homes in the study area. Since 2002, development in West Jordan and Herriman have sold the most homes, both resale and new. These homes tend to be entry-level homes with smaller than average square footage and purchase prices. These two communities alone provide 53 percent of new home sales and 33 percent of all resale homes over the study period. Attached home starts show that attached housing is becoming slightly more expensive in the study area. Still, no market exists for attached housing above $225,000. 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Attached Home Starts by Price 39% 35% 16% 7% Under $99,000 $100,000 $124,999 Attached Vacant Lot Inventory Trend 1,150 $175,000 $199,999 $200,000 $224,999 Attached Home Closings by Price 1,130 1,072 1,050 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1,064 990 950 900 850 813 800 2nd Quarter 2004 $150,000 $174,999 1% Home Price 1,100 1,000 $125,000 $149,999 2% 3rd Quarter 2004 4th Quarter 2004 1st Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 38% 35% 18% 8% Under $99,000 $100,000 $124,999 $125,000 $149,999 $150,000 $174,999 Home Price Public Review Draft 0% 1% $175,000 $199,999 $200,000 $224,999 APPENDIX C Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah 13 Table C-15: Total Attached Housing Sales by Month Year of Sale Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Grand Total 2002 33 34 39 41 42 50 39 40 32 36 38 36 460 2003 25 24 34 34 34 36 32 39 33 42 23 33 389 2004 17 29 27 24 28 47 40 57 59 30 43 37 438 2005 29 36 52 67 67 73 Grand Total 104 123 152 166 171 206 324 111 136 124 108 104 106 1611 Source: Salt Lake County Recorder’s Office Demand Annual Average Absorption By City Condominium and other attached housing sales have been strong over the last few years. The greatest number of sales are seen in South and West Jordan. In contrast, other fast growing cities such as Riverton and Herriman contribute a much smaller share of attached housing to their overall development activity. Attached housing in Herriman has just started developing and it appears that Riverton has only contributed approximately 20 to 25 units per year since 2003. Overall, the market continues to grow with absorption increasing from 38.4 units per month over the last forty-two months to 42.3 units per month for the last eighteen months (see Table C-15 and figure below) It appears there will be opportunities to develop a greater share of attached housing in many of the communities which to date have seen mostly single-family residential development. Flat wages and rising interest rates may encourage such development over the next few years. Demand appears to be higher in the last eighteen months as compared to the period since 2002 for Bluffdale, Herriman and West Jordan (see Table C-16 and figure above). West Jordan continues to lead the market area with the fastest absorption rates overall. Increasing construction costs, rising interests rates and smaller household formation will likely accelerate this trend over the next decade. Average Annual Absorption of Attached Housing Units Per Month 80 60 40 20 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 Units Per Month Absorption Analysis 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Bluffdale Draper Herriman Riverton Sandy South Jordan West Jordan 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year Average absorption by individual subdivisions varies widely for each community. Overall average monthly absorption is 2.5 units for all subdivisions and 4.6 units for subdivisions with over 200 units (see Table C-17). By city the average absorption rate for subdivisions from date platted range from 1.8 to 5.8 units per month. Perhaps more informative is the average rate of absorption for subdivisions by size for individual communities. Larger subdivisions have higher absorption rates and are located in west side communities. Draper has nine subdivisions comprising 50 to 100 units and which have an average absorption rate of 1.9 units per month. The majority of these lots were platted and sold prior to 2002. As of 2002 the overall attached housing market has picked up based on the fact that overall absorption rate per subdivision in Draper is roughly one-half to one unit per month slower than comparable subdivisions in Herriman, Riverton and West Jordan since the date of plat. This suggests that west side communities will continue dominating the attached housing market in the future assuming lot supply remains strong and local zoning continues to encourage higher density development. Whether this is consequential for the proposed development at the Draper Prison Site remains to be seen as the overall demand for less expensive home ownership opportunities will likely increase as interest rates rise. Year *2005 Covers January through July only Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 14 Table C-16: Total Attached Housing Sales by City and Year Year of Sale 2002 2003 2004 2005 Grand Total Average Monthly Sales per 18 Month Average Monthly Sales per 42 Month Bluffdale 0 68 64 30 162 5.2 3.9 Draper 97 32 5 34 168 2.2 4.0 Herriman 0 0 32 68 100 5.6 2.4 Resale Analysis Riverton 69 25 21 10 125 1.7 3.0 Sandy 0 1 42 15 58 3.2 1.4 South Jordan 141 92 109 99 441 11.6 10.5 Grand Total 460 389 438 324 1,611 42.3 38.4 Table C-17: Average Monthly Absorption for Attached Housing Subdivisions Since Date Platted The greatest attached housing resale activity has been observed in Draper, Lehi, and West Jordan (see Table C-18). These three areas represent 73 percent of all attached housing sales in the study area. There has been virtually no attached housing resale activity in Bluffdale and limited activity in Riverton. Meanwhile, there has been high activity in surrounding areas. This may indicate a market opportunity for attached housing. This conclusion is evidenced in the new home data, which suggests that inventory has been decreasing while absorption has been increasing in this area. Size by Units Average Monthly Absorption Bluffdale Per Subdivision Number of Subdivisions Average Monthly Absorption Per Subdivision Draper Number of Subdivisions Average Monthly Absorption Herriman Per Subdivision Number of Subdivisions Average prices and the average square foot price are higher in both Draper and Sandy, suggesting the resale market caters to higher incomes in these communities. Riverton, Lehi and South Jordan have lower than average per square foot costs with higher than average floor-to-area ratios indicating developers are offering a more affordable product in these cities. In West Jordan the average unit size is smaller bringing the average price down, yet the average price per square foot is slightly higher. In this instance developers appear to be responding to a preference for higher quality units, provided at a more affordable price point. This may prove to be a viable niche market since West Jordan has had the greatest number of sales of all cities for the period. Average Monthly Absorption Riverton Per Subdivision Number of Subdivisions Average Monthly Absorption Per Subdivision Sandy Number of Subdivisions South Jordan Average Monthly Absorption Per Subdivision Number of Subdivisions West Jordan Average Monthly Absorption Per Subdivision Number of Subdivisions Total Number of Subdivisions Concluding Remarks Increasing household formation, relatively low interest rates and increasing employment will continue to drive the market area’s attached and detached housing markets. Communities on the western portion of the market are expected to make the largest contributions to the overall market, especially in West Jordan, South Jordan and Herriman. With overall increases in construction costs and rising interest rates, attached housing may become a more viable alternative to singlefamily residential units especially for young, newly West Jordan 153 171 165 68 557 12.9 13.3 50- 100- 15099 149 200 >200 Grand Total NA NA 5.8 NA 5.8 0 0 1 0 1 1.9 1.7 NA NA 1.8 3 4 0 0 7 0.6 2.7 NA NA 2.0 1 2 0 0 3 0.3 2.5 2.4 NA 1.7 1 1 1 0 3 2.6 NA NA NA 2.6 1 0 0 0 1 2.2 1.7 NA 5.1 2.7 3 1 0 1 5 3.6 2.8 3.5 4.1 3.3 1 3 1 1 6 10 11 3 2 26 MLS Attached Housing Square Footage 3,000 2,696 2,500 2,000 1,939 1,784 1,537 1,597 1,297 1,500 1,000 500 0 Draper Public Review Draft Lehi Riverton Sandy South Jordan West Jordan APPENDIX C Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah 15 Table C-18: Attached Home Resales Profile Number of Homes Sold Draper Average Home SF 94 Average Lot SF 1,939 Average FAR 1,298 Average Price 1.49 Average Price/SF $182,791 $94.27 Lehi 95 1,537 702 2.19 $133,640 $86.94 Riverton 15 2,696 436 6.19 $191,957 $71.20 Sandy 33 1,784 1,784 1.00 $257,500 $144.31 South Jordan 58 1,597 736 2.17 $145,950 $91.39 West Jordan 98 1,297 765 1.70 $130,226 $100.41 Source: MLS Data formed households. These patterns are expected to hold as long as employment remains robust and young families are not priced out of the market by escalating costs. MLS Attached Housing Price Distribution $300,000 $257,500 $250,000 $182,791 $200,000 Apartment Market $191,957 $133,640 $150,000 $145,950 $130,226 $100,000 The multi-family housing market along the Wa$50,000 satch Front suffered from the economic recession $0 of 2001 to 2003. This market has continued to Draper Lehi Riverton Sandy South West Jordan Jordan stumble, as historically low mortgage rates encouraged many would-be renters to become first time homebuyers. Rising employment opportunities encouraged this trend. However, mortgage interest Vacancy Rates rates began to rise in the middle of 2005 and are projected to continue rising for the next six to 12 months. The vacancy rate as of June 2005 for southern Salt Lake Higher interest rates will fuel the multi-family housing County is 6.9 percent. Following countywide trends, the market by reducing the opportunities for households to vacancy rates in southern Salt Lake County have been afford a mortgage payment. In Salt Lake County, vadeclining since the valley experienced an all time high in cancy rates have continually declined from 2002, where January 2003. Prior to January 2003, the southern porvacancy rates hit a peak of 10.9 percent, to a rate of 7.3 tion of Salt Lake County averaged a higher vacancy rate percent in mid-2005. Apartment vacancy rates for the of 7.6 percent than the county as a whole, which was 7.1 county are projected to drop to six percent during percent. Since the spike in vacancy rates, the southern 2006. portion of the county is showing lower than average vacancy rates of 8.2 percent compared to 8.9 percent. If the demand for multi-family housing units continues to grow as predicted, the southern portion of Salt Lake County could achieve near market equilibrium, which is estimated at five percent vacancy New Attached Home Starts 600 550 500 450 400 544 522 500 483 444 2nd Quarter 2004 3rd Quarter 2004 4th Quarter 2004 1st Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 Public Review Draft Increased demand is reflected in new and large apartment developments in the valley such as the new 152-unit apartment tower at the Gateway and Overton Development’s new 500-unit apartment community on 400 South and 500 East in Salt Lake City. Already, half of the 500 units in the latter community are pre-leased and construction on phase two will begin soon. Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 16 Rent Market value rents have remained relatively steady over the past five years. The average monthly rental rate in southern Salt Lake County for June 2005 is $731 compared to an average rate of $714 four years ago (see Table C-20). Only studio apartments showed a significant amount of change, decreasing from an average monthly rate of $515 in June 2001 to $399 in June 2005. The monthly rent in southern Salt Lake County tends to be higher than the rates for Salt Lake County as a whole. The average rent for apartments in Salt Lake County in June 2005 was $636, a $95 difference. Rent Per Square Foot Local data is not available on price per square foot, but the southern region of the county should follow similar tends as the county (see Table C-21). The average monthly rent per square foot in Salt Lake County peaked in January 2003 at $0.78. This peak coincided with the peak in vacancy rates discussed in the previous section. Since this peak in rates the average rent per square foot has fallen below the average rate of $0.74 for the past five years to the current average of $0.70 in June 2005. All five types of apartments are lower than the category averages in June 2005. This decreased rate per square foot is a response to the high vacancy rates in Salt Lake County. If current trends continue, apartments can expect to see price per square foot rise as vacancy rates decrease. According to data from Equimark Properties, an average of 734 apartment units in large developments (over 40 units) have been constructed per year from mid-year 2002 to mid-year 2004 in the south end of Salt Lake County (the area south of 6200 South). If Salt Lake County’s average vacancy rate of 9.13 percent (midyear 2002 to mid-year 2005) were applied to this total, the estimated number of new units rented per year would be 667. If the prison site were to capture 30 percent of this average, an estimated 200 units could be rented per year. Under the full relocation scenario, this represents an absorption period of 11 years. Retail Analysis The goal of this retail market analysis was to estimate the amount of retail square-footage that could be supported by the prison site development and the surrounding area. This analysis used existing area popula- tion, estimated population based on the development program of the prison site as outlined in this document and estimates of future population in surrounding planned developments as base data. Buying power (the amount of money that would be spent by the local population) was estimated by multiplying the population within one, three and five mile radii from the prison by the statewide average percapita expenditures in the following major retail categories: Building & Garden, General Merchandise, Food Stores, Motor Vehicle Dealers, Apparel & Accessory, Furniture, Eating Places and Miscellaneous Retail. Population was estimated using Census 2000 data for each of the three areas. The 2005 populations for each of these areas were then projected based on the 2000 Census numbers by using the average annual growth rates from the 2000-2004 Census population estimates for the cities of South Jordan, Sandy, Draper, Riverton and Bluffdale. Once buying power was determined, the amount of retail square-footage supportable within each area was estimated. Buying power was converted into supportable retail square-footage by dividing buying power by average sales per square foot. Total current sales by retail category were determined for each radius by dividing total sales by retail category in each ZIP Code by corresponding sales per square-foot averages for each retail category. Since a number of the ZIP Code boundaries did not fall completely within the radii, supportable square footage was reduced by the proportion of retail acreage that fell outside the radii as determined by 2005 tax parcel data. Existing and planned retail square-footage in the market area was subtracted from the total supportable square-footage to arrive at adjusted supportable square-footage. Typically, a buying power analysis will result in an estimate of additional square-footage that could be supported by the projected increase in population. However, in the case of the prison site, because there is a large amount of existing and planned retail in the market area, there appears to be no opportunity for additional regional retail and very little opportunity for community retail on the prison site itself. Table C-22 on page 20 displays the adjusted supportable square-feet by category. Public Review Draft APPENDIX C Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Table C-19: Apartment Vacancy Rates Southern Salt Lake County Average Rent in the Southern Region of Salt Lake County Salt Lake County 6.7% 6.3% $1,000 June 2001 7.2% 5.8% $900 Jan 2002 7.2% 7.1% $800 Monthly Jan 2001 June 2002 9.2% 9.3% Jan 2003 11.7% 10.9% $600 June 2003 9.0% 9.5% $500 Jan 2004 9.2% 9.9% $400 June 2004 8.4% 9.4% $300 Jan 2005 8.4% 8.3% June 2005 6.9% 7.3% $700 Jan June Jan June Jan June Jan June Jan June 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 Studio 1B/1B 2B/1B 2B/2B 3B/2B Average Rent Source: Equimark, WEPC Table C-20: Rental Rates South Salt Lake County, June 2001 – June 2005 Studio 1B/1B 2B/1B 2B/2B 3B/2B Average Rent Average Vacancy Rates June 2005 $399 $598 $666 $820 $882 $731 6.9% East of I-15 N/A $648 $674 $832 $926 $756 5.4% West of I-15 $399 $548 $657 $807 $837 $705 8.3% Jan 2005 $439 $609 $665 $804 $860 $715 8.4% East of I-15 N/A $635 $669 $822 $892 $742 8.5% West of I-15 $439 $582 $660 $786 $828 $687 8.3% June 2004 $626 $611 $664 $806 $861 $719 8.4% East of I-15 N/A $634 $673 $819 $896 $743 9.1% West of I-15 $419 $588 $655 $792 $825 $694 7.6% Jan 2004 $449 $611 $671 $795 $852 $712 9.2% East of I-15 N/A $626 $679 $806 $881 $ 727 9.4% West of I-15 $449 $596 $662 $783 $823 $696 9.0% June 2003 $409 $600 $660 $802 $839 $705 9.0% East of I-15 N/A $625 $675 $810 $889 $729 9.2% West of I-15 $409 $575 $644 $794 $789 $681 8.7% Jan 2003 $459 $626 $677 $819 $854 $723 11.7% East of I-15 N/A $639 $697 $821 $908 $749 12.9% West of I-15 $459 $612 $657 $817 $800 $697 10.5% June 2002 $499 $626 $669 $814 $854 $719 9.2% East of I-15 N/A $638 $698 $804 $914 $746 9.8% West of I-15 $499 $614 $640 $823 $794 $692 8.6% Jan 2002 $524 $617 $654 $855 $918 $720 7.2% East of I-15 N/A $618 $675 $797 $913 $727 7.4% West of I-15 $524 $615 $632 $912 $923 $712 7.0% Jun 2001 $515 $614 $652 $847 $903 $714 7.2% East of I-15 N/A $612 $685 $780 $899 $721 8.9% West of I-15 $515 $615 $619 $913 $907 $707 5.4% Source: Equimark; WEPC Note: Southern End of the Valley was determined using submarkets 108 and 109 of the Equimark Study Public Review Draft 17 Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 18 Table C-21: Price per Square Foot, Salt Lake County, January 2001 – June 2005 Studio 1B/1B 2B/1B 2B/2B 3B/2B Average Price Vacancy Rates Jan 2001 $ 1.02 $ 0.85 $ 0.69 $ 0.76 $ 0.68 $ 0.75 6.3% June 2001 $ 1.04 $ 0.68 $ 0.70 $ 0.77 $ 0.69 $ 0.76 5.8% Jan 2002 $ 1.04 $ 0.89 $ 0.71 $ 0.78 $ 0.70 $ 0.77 7.1% June 2002 $ 1.02 $ 0.89 $ 0.71 $ 0.78 $ 0.70 $ 0.77 9.3% Jan 2003 $ 1.08 $ 0.87 $ 0.71 $ 0.78 $ 0.71 $ 0.78 10.9% June 2003 $ 0.99 $ 0.85 $ 0.69 $ 0.76 $ 0.69 $ 0.75 9.5% Jan 2004 $ 1.00 $ 0.85 $ 0.69 $ 0.76 $ 0.68 $ 0.74 9.9% June 2004 $ 0.95 $ 0.80 $ 0.66 $ 0.73 $ 0.66 $ 0.70 9.4% Jan 2005 $ 0.98 $ 0.81 $ 0.66 $ 0.72 $ 0.66 $ 0.70 8.3% June 2005 $ 0.99 $ 0.82 $ 0.67 $ 0.73 $ 0.66 $ 0.70 7.3% Average $ 1.01 $ 0.83 $ 0.69 $ 0.76 $ 0.68 $ 0.74 8.4% Source: Equimark Vacancy Rate s 14.0% 12.0% 11.7% 10.0% 9.2% 9.0% 9.2% 8.4% 8.0% 6.7% 7.2% 8.4% 7.2% 6.9% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jan 2001 June 2001 Jan 2002 June 2002 Jan 2003 June 2003 Southern Salt Lake County Public Review Draft Jan 2004 June 2004 Salt Lake County Jan 2005 June 2005 APPENDIX C Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah 19 Currently, there is very little housing within the onemile radius and, therefore, current buying power is very low. When the prison site is fully developed a significant amount of buying power will be added to the area. However, the vast majority of the retail sales generated by the prison site development would likely occur on the large parcels of commercial land immediately adjacent to the prison site on the north. This land is well situated to become a large retail center with excellent access to the freeway and to Bangerter Highway. As mentioned above, there does appear to be “small” opportunities within the community retail sector (a travel distance of three miles) or the neighborhood retail sector (a travel distance of one mile). Depending on development density, there may be some opportunity for community and neighborhood retail on the prison site. These retail types can only be supported if there is substantial residential development on the prison site. There appears to be very little, if any, opportunity for regional retail within the foreseeable future even with full development of the prison site. However, it may be prudent to plan for some future regional retail on the southeaster extreme of the property near the 14600 South interchange. Assuming this interchange is improved at some point in the future, this area would be an ideal site for additional regional retail. The retail outlook for the prison site itself is not optimistic. Although the “Independence at Bluffdale” development – a mixed-use development to the south – will add an additional 3,500 units to the area, it also includes neighborhood, community and regional retail components. The developer expects the market to absorb the residential units in this development in seven to ten years. Following the progress established in 2004, improved market conditions continue in 2005, with an overall declining vacancy rate of 13.72 percent, from 15.25 percent in 2004 (see Table C-23). Specifically in the southeast area of Salt Lake County, the office market has a vacancy rate of 6.48 percent, and a rate of 7.41 percent in the Southwest. The total inventory of office space in Salt Lake County is 27,071,052 square feet, of which 3,712,845 square feet are vacant. Spring View Farms single-family development to the west of the prison will also add some additional buying power to the area. However, the total number of units and absorption rate are of the development are not yet known. Table C-22: Adjusted Supportable SF Less New Development, Adjacent Retail Land, and Additional Residential Communities Neighborhood Community Regional Retail Retail Retail Building & Garden General Merchandise 45,616 122,114 175,108 168,196 572,329 540,059 Food Stores 33,092 -27,880 -7,054 Motor Vehicle Dealers 45,246 111,787 -66,924 Apparel & Accessory 11,943 14,980 30,660 Furniture 24,288 71,298 84,812 Eating Places 41,706 85,536 67,854 Miscellaneous Retail 51,967 131,003 158,248 422,055 1,081,167 982,761 Totals Cabelas and “The District” 422,055 1,081,167 -40,239 Parcels to the north of the Prison* 80,555 56,667 -381,739 “Independence at Bluffdale” Retail 45,557 21,669 -526,046 Source: Wikstrom *Assumes 20% regional, 60% community, and 20% neighborhood retail Office Market Analysis When sublease space of 391,106 is included, the vacancy rate increases by 1.44 percent. The suburban areas of Salt Lake County also follow the countywide trend of declining vacancy rates and increased absorption, with the exception evident in Class C office space. Classes A and B, however, have shown steady vacancy declines since 2002 (see Table C-24). This impact is largely attributed to the upgrading of A and B spaces, where tenants have taken advantage of low lease rates, and improved the quality of their spaces. Lease Rates According to Commerce CRG’s Mid-Year 2005 Market Review, the countywide average lease rate per square foot is $17.37. In the suburban areas of the county, lease rates are akin to the countywide average. Overall they remain moderately stable and have not increased significantly in the last two quarters. The suburban lease rates are summarized in Table C-26. Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 20 Table C-24: Suburban Office Vacancy and Absorption Table C-23: Office Market Vacancy Overview 2004 Q2 2005 Vacancy Vacancy Suburban Areas Direct Office Space Q2 2005 Q2 2005 Total S.F. Available S.F. Q2 2005 Absorption Southeast 9.87% 6.48% Class A 5,360,079 460,062 276,157 Southwest 17.21% 7.41% Class B 6,844,161 698,805 213,199 Salt Lake County 15.25% 13.72% Class C 4,574,094 880,812 -65,574 Table C-25: Suburban Office Market Vacancy History Suburban 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q2 2005 Vacancy Vacancy Vacancy Vacancy Vacancy Vacancy Class A 9.53% 13.41% 18.72% 18.26% 11.55% 8.58% Class B 8.47% 14.48% 18.11% 15.07% 13.83% 10.21% Class C 12.08% 11.88% 15.77% 16.43% 19.02% 19.26% Totals 9.61% 13.55% 17.74% 16.49% 14.48% 12.16% Areas Table C-26: Lease Rates Suburban Areas Class A Class B Class C Total Q2 2005 Rents $20.23 $17.16 $13.35 $17.08 Public Review Draft APPENDIX C Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Q2 2005 Vacancy 2004 Vacancy 2003 Vacancy 2002 Vacancy 2001 Vacancy 2000 SUBURBAN OFFICE MARKET VACANCY HISTORY Vacancy 0.00% Totals Class C Class B Class A 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% Public Review Draft 20.00% 25.00% 21 Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 22 Q2 2005 Absorption Q2 2005 Available S.F. Q2 2005 Total S.F. SUBURBAN OFFICE VACANCIES AND ABSORPTION -20% Class A Class B Class C Totals 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% OFFICE MARKET VACANCY OVERVIEW 20.00% 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 2004 Vacancy Q2 2005 Vacancy 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Southeast Southwest Public Review Draft Salt Lake County APPENDIX D 1 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah APPENDIX D FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS CITY OF DRAPER PURPOSE OF STUDY Abstract: Redevelopment of the Draper prison site into private uses that are primarily residential- or employment-based does not produce substantial increases in net revenues to Draper City. Market research indicates retail uses that would produce larger fiscal impacts do not appear to be feasible given the substantial amount of retail development that is in development or proposed for development in the areas immediately surrounding the prison property. (See Appendix C.) Under the primarily residential alternative, Draper City will realize a slight loss or break-even position. The City of Draper currently receives a small amount of revenue from the 673 acres of the prison site. Conversely, it provides very little services and incurs almost no expenditures at the location. Following relocation and redevelopment, the property would be returned to the tax rolls and would generate substantial revenue for Draper. The City of Draper would also have an obligation to provide services to the new residents and businesses at the site, thereby incurring expenditures as well. This analysis evaluates the fiscal impacts of the potential relocation of the prison on the City of Draper under both the full- and partialrelocation scenarios. Specifically, the analysis evaluates revenues that will flow to Draper and expenses that the City will incur upon completion of the development. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS The City of Draper would receive substantial revenues from redevelopment of the prison site. These revenues would more than offset the anticipated service costs under a full-relocation scenario. Once completed, the development is projected to produce annual revenues of roughly $3.3 million under the full relocation scenario or $1.9 million under the partial relocation scenario, with ongoing costs of approximately $2.3 million or $1.7 million. The result will be an annual surplus of approximately $1 million under the full-relocation scenario or $200,000 under the partialrelocation scenario. Draper’s budget would increase by approximately 22 percent under the full-relocation scenario or 12 percent if part of the prison remained. The figures given above and throughout the remainder of the document include only the land area of the prison site. There is also retail/ commercial land immediately north of the prison property. When developed, this area could generate sales-tax revenue in addition to the revenue produced by the prison site itself. This land to the north of the prison site is vacant partly because of the influence of the prison. A relocation of the prison and development of the site would provide a stimulus to the development of retail on this land. Development of the site would generate substantial construction-related, one-time revenues in addition to projected annual revenues. It is estimated that building permits and planning and engineering fees would reach a combined total of approximately $8.2 million under the fullrelocation scenario or $4.4 million under the partial-relocation scenario. These estimates are based on conservative construction scenarios, which are derived from the development programs used throughout this feasibility study. Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 2 The project will significantly increase the budget of the City of Draper. A comparison of the current annual tax revenues and projected annual revenues from the development of the prison site (Figure 1) illustrates the substantial sales, property and franchise taxes that will be made available by the project. $6,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 FISCAL IMPACTS TO DRAPER CITY In any discussion of budgetary impacts, it is much easier to estimate the impacts to revenues than to expenditures. This is because there are generally set formulae for determining revenues, whereas expenditures are often based on a mix of fixed and variable costs that can be difficult to separate. For instance, revenues from property taxes are based on the number and type of parcels, assessed value and tax rate. Sales tax follows a population/point of sale formula developed by the state. There are specific formulas for the determination of road funds based on weighted road miles and population. $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $Sales Tax Property Tax Current Revenues Energy Sales & Use Tax Franchise Tax Motor Vehicle Taxes Projected Revenues Figure 1. Full Relocation: Comparison of Annual Tax Revenues - Current Draper Revenues and Projected Revenues with Prison Site Redevelopment. APPROACH USED IN THE ANALYSIS Service costs and revenues were estimated for each land use and associated densities included in the full- and partial-relocation development programs. The FY 2004 City of Draper actual budget expenditures were used as the baseline for this analysis. This information was supplemented by a wide variety of sources including interviews with Draper City staff and data received from the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, Utah Department of Workforce Services, Utah State Tax Commission, the Urban Land Institute and the National Research Bureau. The estimates are based on an average household size of 3.0 persons per household (from the 2000 Census estimate of Salt Lake County’s average household size) and a projected 3,700 residential units for full relocation or 1,300 units for a partial relocation. This results in a projected 11,100 additional Draper residents in the event of a full relocation and 3,900 new Draper residents under the partial relocation scenario. Expenditures can be divided into two categories: fixed costs which do not vary greatly based on the demand for services (i.e., department receptionist, office overhead and maintenance) and variable costs which vary based on demand (i.e., number of patrol officers needed). We have worked with various city departments to identify fixed and variable costs and to determine the extent to which each department is impacted by new development. The discussion outlines in greater detail the methodology used to estimate various revenues or expenditures. Current Draper Budget The starting point for reviewing impacts of the proposed development is to first review the current budget of Draper City. Draper’s FY 2004 actual revenues and expenditures shown on its fiscal year 2006 budget represent revenues and expenditures of $1,748 per household, or $474 per person. The major revenue generators in terms of percentage of total budget are sales taxes (41 percent), charges for goods and services (20 percent), property taxes (18 percent) and Class C road funds (eight percent). Public Safety and Executive and Administrative costs dominate the expenditures side of the budget; combined, these represent just over 40 percent of the budget. Public Review Draft APPENDIX D 3 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Table D1. Draper City 2004 Actual Revenues & Expenditures Revenues Amount Taxes Property Tax $2,548,839 Sales Taxes (Including Energy Tax) $6,168,249 Franchise Taxes $300,000 Fee in Lieu of Property Taxes $558,377 Transient Room Tax $10,790 Licenses and Permits Animal Licenses $4,353 Building, Structures & Equipment $2,606,171 Business Licenses & Permits $227,258 Intergovernmental Revenue $1,184,433 Class B Road Fund Allotment Liquor Funds $15,435 Public Safety $210,842 Charges for Services Sale of Maps and Publications $4,840 Animal Control Fees $10,705 False Alarm Fees $4,285 $493,545 Fines and Forfeitures Miscellaneous Revenue Interest Earnings $41,128 Rents & Concessions $25,660 Sale of Materials and Supplies $105,617 Other miscellaneous revenues $738,165 Total Revenues Expenditures General Government Legislative Commission or Council Judicial City & Precinct Courts Executive & Central Staff Agencies Executive Personnel Data Processing Administrative Agencies Attorney Non-Departmental General Governmental Buildings Elections Planning & Zoning Public Safety Police Department Fire Department Other Protective Animal Control & Regulation Highways & Public Improvements Highways Parks Recreation & Public Property Park & Park Areas Park Lighting Community & Economic Development Economic Development & Assistance Transfers to other funds and other miscellaneous expenses Total Expenditures Source: Utah State Auditor’s Office Amount per Household Percent of Total $291.96 $706.56 $34.36 $63.96 $1.24 16.70% 40.42% 1.97% 3.66% 0.07% $0.50 $298.53 $26.03 0.03% 17.08% 1.49% $135.67 $1.77 $24.15 7.76% 0.10% 1.38% $0.55 $1.23 $0.49 $56.53 0.03% 0.07% 0.03% 3.23% $4.71 $2.94 $12.10 $84.55 0.27% 0.17% 0.69% 4.84% $15,258,692 Amount Amount per Household Percent of Total $89,072 $10.20 0.58% $291,056 $33.34 1.91% $1,109,735 $5,923 $502,464 $127.12 $0.68 $57.56 7.27% 0.04% 3.29% $326,518 $734,835 $261,389 $17,761 $2,235,928 $37.40 $84.17 $29.94 $2.03 $256.12 2.14% 4.82% 1.71% 0.12% 14.65% $2,178,923 $1,558,876 $249.59 $178.57 14.28% 10.22% $147,179 $16.86 0.96% $671,573 $76.93 4.40% $457,975 $84,943 $52.46 $9.73 3.00% 0.56% $167,598 $19.20 1.10% $4,416,944 $505.95 28.95% $15,258,692 Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 4 Projected Prison Site Development Revenues and Expenditures Table D2. Summary of One-Time Fees to Draper City Fee Building Permits & Plan Review Planning & Engineering Fees Impact Fees Fire Revenues and expenditures have been segregated into two groups: one-time revenues and expenses related to construction activities (e.g., buildingpermit fees), and ongoing annual revenues and expenses. One-Time Fees The construction-related revenues include planning and development fees as well as building-permit fees. Table D2 shows a summary of all one-time fees that would be generated by the development of the prison site. Building Inspection – Licenses, Fees and Permits The building-permit fees discussed here are those that will be collected during the project’s construction. Annual building-permit fees will be discussed later. It is assumed that the construction period will last for 10 years. Conservative estimates indicate Draper City can expect to receive approximately $6.9 million in building-permit and plancheck revenues over the construction period of the prison site development if the entire prison were relocated. A partial relocation would result in total revenues of approximately $3.4 million. This equates to an annual revenue stream during the construction period of approximately $687,000 for a full relocation, or $343,000 for a partial relocation. Planning and Engineering Fees As with buildingpermit fees, planning and engineering fees discussed here are those that will be collected only during the construction period. The planning and development fees are expected to equal approximately $1.3 million for the entire project under a full-relocation scenario or $970,000 under a partial-relocation scenario. It should be noted that development and planning revenues have been conservatively estimated and could be substantially more than the above estimate. Impact Fees Impact fees, by statute, must be directly equal to the costs of services provided by the agency charging the fees. Therefore, impact fee calculations are provided based on current fee structures. However, it is implicitly understood that the costs associated with the service demands of the development for the impact-fee-based ser- Full Relocation Partial Relocation $6,877,842 $3,428,139 $1,337,410 $974,393 $1,585,089 $1,329,454 Parks Police Storm Water $9,953,675 $649,932 $10,170,520 $3,202,147 $395,844 $7,725,100 Transportation $10,044,618 $7,502,225 Total Impact Fees $32,403,834 $20,154,770 Total One-Time Fees $40,619,086 $24,557,302 vices will be assumed to be equal to the fee amount. Total impact fee revenues (and expenditures) for the proposed development are estimated at $32.4 million for full relocation or $20.1 million for partial relocation. Annual Revenue Calculations The ongoing revenue and expense projections for development of the prison site are detailed below. As noted above, the potential development may produce annual net revenues to Draper City of approximately $1 million for a full-relocation scenario or $200,000 for a partial relocation upon completion of the project. In preparing estimates of individual revenues and expenditures related to the development of the prison site, we have observed the methodology outlined in the discussion of individual categories of revenue or expense that follows. Revenues Each revenue item is described below. All estimates are based on current State enabling legislation. The legislature is engaged in ongoing discussions concerning the overall tax structure. The discussions may result in changes which could significantly impact the assumed revenues from this project. Taxes The discussion of taxes is broken into the following areas: property tax, sales and use tax, franchise tax and fee-in-lieu tax (also known as the age-based or motor vehicle tax). Sales and Use Tax With the development of the prison site, Draper City would receive additional annual sales tax in the amount of $932,000 for the entire project under the full-relocation scenario or $274,000 under the partial-relocation scenario. Public Review Draft APPENDIX D 5 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah As noted earlier, these revenues are calculated based on the sales tax distribution formula used by the state. Of the total local sales-tax revenues (one percent local option tax), local jurisdictions receive fifty percent based on point of sale and 50 percent based on the ratio of the city’s population to the state population applied against 50 percent of the total state local sales tax. The calculation is as follows: (Total Local Sales Tax in Draper City) X 0.5 = Point of Sale Distribution to Draper Draper City Population ÷ Utah Population = Population Ratio (Total Local Sales Tax in State) X Population Ratio X 0.5 = Population Distribution to the Draper City Point of Sale + Population Distribution = Estimated Draper City Sales Tax Receipts This same methodology is applied to the prison site development. Direct point of sale revenue estimates are based on average retail sales figures from the Urban Land Institute and the National Research Bureau. Property Tax At the present time, the City of Draper charges a tax rate of .001327 and receives approximately $2.6 million annually in propertytax revenues. With the development of the prison site Draper would receive an additional $594,000 (assuming full relocation) or $529,000 (assuming partial relocation) in annual propertytax revenues when the project is fully built out. Revenues are based on total projected taxable values of $447 million or $398 million for the total project. Franchise Tax There are three franchise taxes collected by Draper City -- the first is the Municipal Energy Sales and Use Tax as provided for in the Utah Code §10-1-301 to §10-1-310, the second is the Municipal Telecommunications License Tax (outlined in Utah Code §10-1-401 through §10-1-410) and the third is the Cable Television Franchise fee, which is collected from Comcast Corporation. The development of the prison site could add an estimated $ 1 million in franchise tax revenue for a full relocation or $723,000 for a partial relocation. This has been estimated using the following methods: Municipal Energy Sales and Use Tax “A municipality may levy a municipal energy sales and use tax on the sale or use of taxable energy within the municipality of up to six percent of the delivered value of the taxable energy” [Utah Code §10-1-304(1)]. “Taxable energy” is defined as gas and electricity [Utah Code §10-1-303(9)]. The development of the prison site will add an estimated $702,000 (full relocation) or $553,000 (partial relocation) in annual energy tax revenues. This has been calculated by estimating total annual utility expenditures by both commercial and residential uses and applying the six percent tax rate to these estimates. Current revenues from the prison site have been subtracted. Municipal Telecommunications License Tax Municipalities may levy a tax of up to four percent of telephone and mobile telephone service providers’ gross receipts from telecommunications services that are attributable to the municipality as outlined in Utah Code §10-1-401 - §10-1-410. For projection purposes, it has been assumed conservatively that there are 2.5 phones (including land lines and cell phones) per business and 2.0 phones per residence. These fees have been estimated by applying a revenue per phone estimate (based on Draper’s 2005 revenue and the number of households and businesses within the city) to twice the number of residences and 2.5 times the number of businesses projected for the prison development. Cable Television Franchise Fee State code allows Draper City to collect a franchise tax on basic residential cable service. Revenue from this source - $41,000 for a full relocation or $14,000 for a partial relocation - has been estimated by applying Draper’s 2005 per-household revenue to the projected number of units in the prison site development program. Fee-in-Lieu of Property Tax The fee-in-lieu of property tax (also known as the motor vehicle tax, the uniform fee on vehicles, or the age-based vehicle tax) is an annual property tax on motor vehicles. Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 6 The uniform fee in lieu of property tax is an age-based vehicle tax (where fees are assessed based on the age of the vehicle). The fees are: Table D3. Age-Based Fees Age of Vehicle Equivalent Tax Less than 3 years $150 3 or more years but less than 6 years $110 6 or more years but less than 9 years $80 9 or more years but less than 12 years $50 12 or more years $10 Source: Utah State Tax Commission These fees are collected at the county level at the time of the vehicle’s registration. These fee-in-lieu revenues are distributed to cities based on the municipal service taxes generated in each community. Because of the difficulty in determining the portion of revenue that would go to the City of Draper, we have instead estimated this revenue by multiplying the estimated property tax generated by the development by the ratio of motor vehicle taxes to property taxes from Draper’s 2004 revenue. Based on the ratio of motor-vehicle to property-tax revenue of 0.096, we have projected revenue amounts of roughly $57,000 for full relocation or $51,000 for partial relocation. Summary of Taxes Total annual tax revenues that will flow to Draper City as a result of the prison site development are estimated to be $2.6 million for full relocation or $1.6 million for partial relocation upon project completion. Business Licenses The City of Draper would see annual business license revenues increase by $98,000 from the entire project under a full relocation scenario. A partial relocation would result in an increase of approxi- mately $112,000. These numbers are based on Draper’s current business license fee schedule, which requires a $75 per year annual base fee, along with an annual per employee fee of $7.00. Based on data from the Department of Workforce Services, it was assumed that the average number of employees per business was 11 for office, 14 for retail and 13 for industrial companies. Building Permits Although at build-out major construction would cease, a certain amount of alterationand remodeling-related construction would always be occurring. Even in a new community, there will be alterations of commercial and residential structures to accommodate changing needs of tenants and owners. These changes would require building and development permits and would generate revenues and require expenditures. Industry estimates of annual alteration costs per square foot provide the basis for estimated ongoing building-permit revenue Draper City would receive from the development of the prison site. It is estimated that annual buildingpermit and plan-check revenues after build-out of the site would amount to $181,000 for a full relocation or $92,000 for a partial relocation. Fines and Forfeitures are assumed to occur at a rate of roughly $56.53 per household based on Draper’s 2004 revenues. The projected annual revenues are $209,000 for full relocation or $73,000 for partial relocation. Intergovernmental Revenues included in this analysis are Class C road funds and state liquor control funds. Road Funds are apportioned among counties and municipalities in the following manner [Utah Code 72-2108]: Table D4. Summary of Ongoing Tax Revenues to Draper City Source of Revenue Full Relocation % of Total Amount Revenues Partial Relocation % of Total Amount Revenues Taxes Sales Tax $932,161 28.4% $274,495 14.4% Property Tax $593,709 18.1% $528,584 27.7% $701,501 $358,993 $57,081 $2,640,445 21.4% 10.8% 1.7% 80.4% $553,468 $168,761 $50,820 $1,576,128 29.0% 8.8% 2.7% 82.6% Energy Sales & Use Tax Franchise Tax Fee in Lieu - Motor Vehicle Total Tax Revenues Public Review Draft (a) 50 percent in the ratio that the class B roads weighted mileage within each county and class C roads weighted mileage within each municipality bear to the total class B and class C roads weighted mileage within the state, and; (b) 50 percent in the ratio that the population of a county or municipality bears to the total population of the state. APPENDIX D 7 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah For purposes of calculating Class C (city) road fund revenues, weighted mileage means the sum of the following: paved road miles multiplied by five; gravel road miles multiplied by two; and all other road types multiplied by one. It is estimated that the development of the prison site would result in approximately 163 new weighted road miles for a full relocation or 117 miles for a partial relocation. By applying the estimated number of weighted miles for the prison sited development to the formula described above, we arrive at total annual revenue estimates of approximately $302,000 under a full relocation scenario or $137,000 under a partial relocation scenario. Class C Road Funds are not included in the list of annual revenues in Tables D7 and D8 below because these funds are reserved and transferred on an annual basis to the Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Fund for use in capital projects. It was felt that including these revenues with other annual revenues discussed in this analysis would overstate the annual unrestricted net revenues that would be available to the city. Class C Road Funds have instead been listed separately in Table D8 to make clear that they are not operating revenues and therefore have not been included in the calculation of net annual revenues. State Liquor Fund. The distribution of LiqControl funds is as follows: 20 percent Local percentage of all state liquor outlets and licenses; and 25 percent Divided among counties based on population for confinement and rehabilitation. Distribution of liquor funds is subject to the discretion of the Legislature and varies from year to year. This analysis assumes this number remains fairly constant. The per-household budget analysis results in a per-household revenue of $1.77 for a total estimated additional revenue of approximately $7,000 for a full relocation or $2,300 for a partial relocation. Total Intergovernmental Revenues Intergovernmental revenues, then, comprise roughly 2.9 (full relocation) or 1.8 (partial relocation) percent of the total annual revenues generated by the prison site development, or nearly $96,000 or $34,000 annually. Table D6. Summary of Ongoing Intergovernmental Revenues Intergovernmental Revenue Liquor Funds Amount Full ReloPartial cation Relocation $6,542 $2,298 Public Safety $89,360 $31,397 Total Intergovernmental Revenue $95,902 $33,695 uor Animal Control Fees have been estimated at approximately $4,500 or $1,600 based on a per household revenue amount of $1.23. 25 percent Distributed based on the ratio of local to state population; 30 percent Local convictions as a percent of the statewide total for alcohol-related convictions; Planning & Development Fees This section addresses annual fees after build-out and assumes all major development fees would already have been collected. Ongoing fees would be collected for such items as conditional-use permits, sign permits and other mis- Table D5. Class C Road Funds Calculation Weighted Road Miles Partial Full Relocation Relocation Entire Prison Development Anticipated Revenue Population Full Relocation Total Partial Relocation Full Relocation Partial Relocation 163 117 11,100 3,900 Na Na $83,085 $59,638 $219,331 $77,062 $302,416 $136,700 Source: UDOT; Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants, Inc. Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 8 cellaneous permits and services. However, these fees are only a very small part of a planning department’s revenues, most of which are related to new development. Because these revenues would be inconsequential, planning revenue has been assumed to be zero. Miscellaneous Revenue is largely made up of interest accruing from other funds, sale of materials and supplies, rents and concessions, etc. Only “Sale of Materials” and “Rents & Concessions” categories have been included in this analysis since it is a reasonable assumption that these revenue sources could increase along with the population of the prison site development. Assuming a per-household revenue of $15.04, the total new miscellaneous revenue resulting from the prison site development would amount to approximately $55,600 for a full relocation or $19,500 for a partial relocation. Summary of Revenues Projected revenues by major category are summarized in Table D7. Expenditures Current Draper City per-household expenditures have been used as points of departure for the following estimates of future expenditures resulting from the development of the prison site. In other words, some expenditures have been calculated using current Draper City perhousehold expenditures as a multiplier, while others have been estimated using the per-household amount as a base number from which modifications were made based on conversations with staff from various city departments or by other means. The per household method is a conservative one in that it assumes there would be no economies of scale, and therefore, in order to supply the same level of services to the prison site development, Draper would essentially need to duplicate its current costs of government. This is a fairly unlikely assumption, which is why each expenditure category has been addressed individually and adjusted as appropriate. Table D8 shows a summary of estimated new expenditures by category assuming the prison site is fully or partially redeveloped. Table D7. Summary of Ongoing Revenues to Draper City Source of Revenue Full Relocation Amount % of Total Budget Partial Relocation Amount % of Total Budget Taxes Sales Tax $932,161 28.4% $274,495 14.4% Property Tax $593,709 18.1% $528,584 27.7% Energy Sales & Use Tax $701,501 21.4% $553,468 29.0% Franchise Tax $355,993 10.8% $168,761 8.8% Fee in Lieu - Motor Vehicle $57,081 1.7% $50,820 2.7% Total Tax Revenues $2,640,445 80.4% $1,576,128 82.6% Licenses and Permits Business Licenses (Annual) $98,437 3.0% $111,730 5.9% Building Permits & Plan Review (Annual) $181,274 5.5% $91,941 4.8% $279,712 8.5% $203,672 10.7% Total License and Permits Intergovernmental Revenues Public Safety $89,360 2.7% $31,397 1.6% Liquor Fund Allotment $6,542 0.2% $2,298 0.1% Total Intergovernmental $95,902 2.9% $33,695 1.8% Charges for Services Animal Control Fees $4,537 0.1% $1,594 0.1% Planning & Development Fees (Annual) $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Total Charges for Services $4,537 0.1% $1,594 0.1% Fines and Forfeitures $209,177 6.4% $73,495 3.9% Fines Miscellaneous Revenue Rents & Concessions $10,875 0.3% $3,821 0.2% Sale of Materials & Supplies $44,763 1.4% $15,728 0.8% Total Miscellaneous Revenue $55,639 1.7% $19,549 1.0% Total Annual Revenues $3,285,411 $1,908,132 Class C Road Funds (to CIP) $302,416 $136,700 Note: Revenues do not include indirect or minor revenues such as: government grants, animal licenses, sale of maps and publications, false alarm fees, GRAMA requests, and interest earnings. Public Review Draft APPENDIX D 9 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Expense categories are described below. Unless otherwise stated, expenditures have been estimated by multiplying Draper’s current per-household expenditure amount by the number of estimated new households added to the city as a result of the prison site redevelopment. Commission or Council includes legislative expenditures (e.g., the city council as well as expenses for committees and special bodies). According the City’s Finance Department, these expenditures would not increase appreciably. In order to be conservative, we have projected a 10 percent increase over current expenditures resulting in an annual expenditure increase of approximately $8,900. Judicial services include the prosecutor, justice court judge and clerks. Executive and Administrative includes expenditures for the mayor and boards and commissions, as well as for personnel and administrative costs for the city administrator, auditor, recorder, treasurer, city attorney and Public Works. This category also includes human resources management functions, as well as oversight for the city’s computer systems. Again, the City’s Finance Department indicated that there would not be substantial expenditure increases. We have conservatively assumed a 15 percent increase would occur, resulting in additional expenditures of $292,000. Table D8. Non-Departmental includes supplies, office-related equipment, insurance and various programs (e.g. tuition program). A 15 percent increase has been calculated to be consistent with the increase in Executive and Administrative expenses. General Government Buildings Maintenance of government buildings and properties. Elections Facilitation of elections. Planning & Business Licensing provides long- and shortrange land-use planning and development approval services. Business licensing is also included under this category. The figures given in this section are ongoing expenditures and would occur after the development is built-out and no longer requires substantial development services. The Community Development Department has estimated approximately 25 percent of its resources are generally spent on issues unrelated to new development. This percentage has been used in estimated planning expenditures that would be incurred after redevelopment of the prison site. We have estimated redevelopment of the site will result in new planning-related annual expenditures of approximately $177,000 for a full relocation or $153,000 for a partial relocation. Building Inspections Expenditures for the Building Inspections Division are generally much less than fee revenues. The estimates shown in Table D8 above are based on information from the city’s proposed budget, which indicates that Building Division expenditures amount to approximately 33 percent of total fee revenue. These expenditures, therefore, represent Summary of Ongoing Expenditures to Draper City 33 percent of projected fee reveFull Relocation Partial Relocation nue. Amount $8,907 $123,357 % of Total Budget 0.4% 5.3% Amount $8,907 $43.342 % of Total Budget 0.5% 2.6% Executive & administrative $291,696 12.6% $291,696 17.6% Non-Departmental $110,225 4.8% $110,225 6.6% General Government Buildings $110,783 4.8% $38,924 2.3% $7,528 0.3% $2,645 0.2% $177,494 7.7% $153,134 9.2% $60,362 2.4\6% $30,615 1.8% Engineering $261,592 11.3% $91,604 5.5% Public Safety $721,383 31.4% $685,921 41.3% Highways $137,176 5.9% $98,464 5.9% Parks & Recreation Economic Development & Assistance $230,103 9.9% $80,847 4.9% $71,032 $2,346,638 $968,773 3.1% $24,957 $1,661,251 $246,851 1.5% Source of Expenditure Commission or Council Judicial Elections Planning & Business Licensing Building Inspections Total Annual Expenditures Revenues less expenditures Public Review Draft Engineering is responsible for transportation and infrastructure planning, designing and maintaining public improvements and inspecting infrastructure improvements. According to the Community Development Department, of which the Engineering Division is part, about 50 percent of engineering resources are spent addressing issues unrelated to new development. The engineering budget amount was therefore reduced by 50 percent before calcu- Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 10 lating the per-household expenditure, which was used to estimate the new expenditures resulting from full relocation of the prison site. Partial relocation estimates are proportionate to the amount of land area in the partial relocation scenario compared to the full relocation scenario. Public Safety Police, fire protection and animal control services include all operations and maintenance. Facilities are constructed using impact fee revenue. Draper contracts with the Unified Fire Authority (UFA) for Fire Department personnel. According to Draper City’s Finance Department, although city firerelated administration costs for the prison site would increase, the amount paid for services would not increase substantially because the new fire station being built on the west side should have enough manpower to cover the prison development. Even so, we have assumed an increase in expenditures of $228,000, which includes $178,220 for an additional ambulance contract (Draper currently contracts for two ambulances) and $50,000 for additional administrative costs that would be incurred as a result of the new development. Other Expenses Capital Facilities/Impact Fees In addition to Draper City’s operating budget, there are capital improvements that will be required as new development occurs such as new fire stations, police stations, major infrastructure and parks. These expenses are covered through impact fees that are directly related to the costs of these improvements at the time of development. Impact fees are required by law to remain in segregated funds and be spent only on the capital improvements designated at the time the fee is established. Therefore, we have not included a discussion of these fees in the expenditures section of this document, as there will be no direct impact to the community. New Police Department expenditures were estimated at 20 percent of Draper’s current budget based on interviews with Police Department staff. Highways Street maintenance. This has been estimated by multiplying Draper City’s current expenditures per weighted road mile by the number of estimated weighted road miles in the new development. Parks and Recreation Operating costs for parks, swimming pools, and other recreation facilities as well as cultural activities and events, libraries and cemeteries are included in this category. Economic Development Assistance The Economic Development Division is responsible for retention and recruitment of businesses and for marketing the community. Public Review Draft APPENDIX E 1 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah APPENDIX E RELOCATION SITES SELECTION CRITERIA AND IMPACTS Abstract: Eastern Box Elder County, Northeastern Juab County and the Rush Valley area of Tooele County were identified as the most suitable areas for a full prison relocation. Carbon County (in the Price/Wellington region) and Iron County (near Enoch/Cedar City) are suitable for partial relocations. These areas were identified after an evaluation of all communities within the state of Utah was completed. Alternative site selection is a key component of the feasibility of relocation of the Utah State Penitentiary. Identification of suitable alternate sites is the first step in determining the operating cost impact of relocation. The process for identifying and evaluating suitable alternate sites was governed by the Prison Relocation Committee. The Committee established the criteria for suitability and then evaluated each suitable site. This process resulted in the identification of three recommended communities in the event of a full relocation of the prison and five recommended communities in the event of a partial relocation. Each of the sites was then evaluated for the probable impact on the community of the prison and the impact of the site on operating costs. This process identified counties or sub-county areas and has not progressed to identifying specific parcels for relocation. A much more comprehensive review and analysis of suitability and costs will be required when parcels are identified. SELECTION CRITERIA The entire state of Utah was evaluated for suitable sites for relocation of the prison. Data was collected from a variety of agencies to assess relevant conditions within individual communities and counties. The Prison Relocation Committee recommended several factors be considered for either scenario. A general summary of relevant factors follows: Medical Any site should be within 30 miles of a hospital or clinic, which can provide emergency services. It should be within two hours of a major hospital. Staffing The partial replacement scenario eliminates approximately 1,450 beds from the Draper site. Any location chosen for the replacement would need a large enough labor pool to provide approximately 400 staff members with the range of skills and professions required by the prison. A full relocation would require upwards of 4,000 beds for the core facility and 1,100 staff members, a percentage of whom would have to be drawn from the local labor pool depending on the site and success of the Department of Corrections in relocating current employees. Access Accessibility issues are less important in a partial replacement scenario. However, the following would affect the suitability of a site in either situation: • Distance from a highway • Road conditions • Availability of suppliers and services Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 2 Community Availability and adequacy of community services are a concern for a partial replaceServices ment site but the level of need in these areas is lower than for a total replacement site. Law enforcement proximity and capacity. Access to other state agencies. Access to county services (such as mental health / substance abuse treatment). Infrastructure All required infrastructure ideally should be available, though availability in many cases is simply a function of the cost of making missing components available. The need for potable water is a primary consideration for either full or partial relocation. Principle components necessary for either case include: • Adequate potable water supply • Communication capacity (T1 or microwave) • Radio reception and repeater locations (800 and 700 MHz) • Electrical supply and redundancy/ natural gas • Sewer treatment METHODOLOGY suitability throughout the state. Information regarding the above-mentioned criteria was generalized and combined to a single index of one-kilometer cells that covered the entire state. This coverage allowed the working committee to consider the suitability of all possible sites throughout the state. The index illustrated on the final site suitability map is cumulative and considers the following criteria: In order to be an eligible site an area: • • • • • • Must have less than a 5 percent slope. Must have access to water. Must be less than 30 miles from a hospital with ER trained doctors. Must have at least 30,000 people living within 30 miles. Must not be on federal land. Less than 30 miles from a city with a police or sheriff department. Areas less than 5 miles from a state highway or interstate are shaded on the final map The first five qualifying criteria provide the greatest constraints in the analysis, particularly population, the availability of water and non-federal land. The remaining four criteria overlapped with surprising agreement, excepting the requirement to be within five miles of a highway. The map which is included in this appendix illustrates the areas of the state which are considered suitable for either a full or partial relocation of the prison. Data Sources Information regarding the overall population, employment and infrastructure of individual communities and counties was collected and organized in a spreadsheet. The proximity of key services was determined utilizing GIS. This information was organized in a matrix of all Utah municipalities and counties for the key subject areas of demographics, employment, infrastructure and staff support systems. Key information and relevant sources are listed in Table E1. In addition to the site suitability criteria utilized to develop the site map included in this appendix, the potential locations were further evaluated for their impact on transportation costs and the likelihood of future urban encroachment. GIS Analysis GIS was utilized to determine population density, proximity of services, access to transportation and adequacy of local infrastructure. Most of this information was expressed in terms of proximity to all points in the state. For example, population was examined by summarizing the total population within a thirty-mile radius for each of a series of one kilometer spaced cells covering the entire state. Thus, maps of areas that were within reasonable distances to key resources were developed and ultimately used to create a composite index to aid in the assessment of site While the impact on transportation costs is implied in the original five factors listed above, there are some trips that can be replaced within the new community and some trips which will have as their destination the same location as when the prisoner was housed at the Draper facility. The analysis of transportation costs takes two forms. The first is the ability of the new community to provide needed services and the other is the new community’s distance from courts and other similar facilities. Public Review Draft APPENDIX E 3 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Table E1. Key Information Used in Analysis of Potential Communities Category Issue Source Demographics Population 2000 (Census) U.S. Census Bureau (“Census) Population 2030 (Based on MAG Projected AAGR) Capacity of Communities to Accommodate Prison Expansion (County Growth Projections 20002030) Mountainlands AOG (“MAG”) MAG Racial diversity (Total Minority Population) Percent Hispanic Number of trained professionals and specialists for outside services and facility support Census Census Division of Workforce Services (“DWS”) Hospital (with ER Certified Staff) with 30 Miles WEPC Employment Competitiveness of current wage rates for key professions. This index is a comparative average to state wages for each county DWS Unemployment rate (2004) DWS Transportation Access Acceptable distance to Interstate Interchanges (based on spatial analysis in GIS). Acceptable Distance to Principle Highway (based on spatial analysis in GIS). AGRC UDOT Road safety along major highways (based on UDOT safety index) UDOT Distance from Draper Prison WEPC Average distance to Salt Lake International Airport Infrastructure T1, microwave, communication capacity (Coverage is statewide with "open areas" only in most remote locations) WEPC QWEST, Harris Corp. Electrical supply and redundancy. Available in most places. Utah Power Natural Gas Availability. Available in most places. Questar Sewer Availability Water Supply Adequate (All municipalities are within two miles of an urban water supply) Dept. of Environmental Quality Division of Water Resources Staff Support System Churches - Number of Schools (K-12) AGRC Distance to institution of higher education AGRC Distance to Mental Health / Substance Abuse Treatment Services Division of Substance Abuse and Mental Health Availability of Public Transportation within Cities WEPC Availability of Retail Services (Warehouse and Supercenters) Support Services Access Issues DWS Law Enforcement Proximity and Capacity Local and County Correctional Officers as Percent of Total Law Enforcement Department of Public Safety (“DPS”) DPS Emergency Service Access within 5-10 Miles (for municipalities) Auto dealer access for warranty access to prison fleet (within county) DPS Division of Workforce Services Distance from County Seats (Courts, Services) AGRC Number of Workforce Services Offices DWS Aging Services (Number of Offices) Department of Human Services (“DHS”) Family Services (Number of Offices) DHS Disabilities (Number of Offices) DHS Average Distance to DMV Division of Motor Vehicles Average Distance to Nearest County Health Department WEPC Hotel accommodations (Number of) DWS Doctors / PA’s/Relevant Medical and Social Service Professionals Utah Occupational and Professional Licensing Number of Charities Volunteer workforce capacity (there are currently approximately 1,300 volunteers) Utah Department of Commerce Based on Population Other Climatic Conditions – Lightning Risk (Illustrated on NOAA Map) Public Review Draft NOAA Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 4 Public Review Draft APPENDIX E 5 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 6 One of the primary reasons the relocation of the prison is under study is the fact that urban development has begun to occur along the edges of the prison boundaries. As potential communities and sites are considered, the potential for a similar situation arising in the near future was evaluated. Recommended Communities The alternative site analysis has not focused on specific pieces of real estate but rather on communities with sufficient available sites and requisite attributes that provide the UDOC a suitable range of options for prison relocation. All communities in Utah were initially considered as candidate sites for prison relocation. The suitability of each community was evaluated through an objective analysis of data. Communities have been identified as suitable for a complete relocation or a partial relocation. • Availability of sewerage in most interstate corridor communities. Water According to the Utah State Engineer, there likely is water available at sites mentioned in Box Elder County. If water must be drawn from wells, there may be an issue with salinity. The Bear River Water Conservancy District is the major water service provider in the area. Minimal costs related to water acquisition are assumed. Sewer The sewer is estimated to cost $2 million, not subject to local control and should be same in any location under consideration. Local Government Response Government officials were resistant, but particularly resistant to any location from Brigham City south. Full Relocation Box Elder – High Suitability Box Elder County provides many of the amenities that would make the area highly suitable to both full and partial relocation. Proximity to major population centers and availability of suitable land augment the area’s suitability. The community may be willing to accept a relocated facility due to stagnant wages, slow economic growth and higher than average unemployment. • • • • • • • • Suitable surrounding population size and diversity. Local need for employment (2004 unemployment was 5.2 percent for the county). Wages tend to be lower (approximately 93.1 percent of state average) except for key construction jobs (electricians, plumber assistants, carpenters, etc.). Good transportation access (both state highway and interstate). Proximity to educational institutions. Proximity to charities and population large enough to sustain volunteer base. Less expensive land (relative to Greater Wasatch Front). Proximity to Cache County and Wasatch Front (providing access to more services, institutions, and trained professional workforce). Table E2. Specific Demographic Data Box Elder County Capacity to Accommodate Population Prison Expan2030 (Based sion (County Population on MAG Growth Projec2000 Projected tions 2000Racial Percent 2030) Diversity Hispanic (Census) AAGR) Box Elder County 43,083 74,417 1.8% Bear River 750 1,312 1.9% 3.7% 3.9% Brigham 17,411 28,757 1.7% 8.7% 7.7% Corinne 621 1,078 1.9% 10.1% 8.2% Deweyville 278 503 2.0% 4.3% 2.2% Elwood 678 1,118 1.7% 6.0% 4.3% Fielding 448 745 1.7% 2.2% 2.2% Garland 1,943 3,258 1.7% 11.0% 7.9% Honeyville 1,214 2,117 1.9% 5.7% 5.3% Howell 221 395 2.0% 0.9% 0.0% Mantua 791 1,321 1.7% 3.7% 0.9% Perry 2,383 4,698 2.3% 4.3% 3.7% Plymouth 328 625 2.2% 0.9% 1.5% Portage 257 443 1.8% 1.2% 5.4% Snowville 177 292 1.7% 11.3% 19.2% Tremon5,592 10,092 2.0% 8.5% 9.7% ton Willard 1,630 2,732 1.7% 3.7% 4.1% Source: Census 2000; MAG (2004) Northeast Juab – High Suitability Growth in bedroom communities is driving population growth and economic development in the northeast Juab communities. This site is located relatively close to the existing facilities, but suffers from a clear interest in residential development in this area among Public Review Draft APPENDIX E 7 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 8 Public Review Draft APPENDIX E 9 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah households seeking quieter suburban locations. This may affect the value of local real estate as well as impose greater pressure in terms of competing land uses. Nonetheless, proximity to the Wasatch Front and its attendant services makes this area a highly suitable location. This location is also relatively close to the Gunnison Prison site and would draw from the same labor pool. This could negatively impact the Department of Corrections’ ability to recruit suitable employees. • • • • • Local population meets required size but is less diverse. Communities are growing quickly (two to three percent per annum on average). Areas close to Utah County likely have similar employment characteristics to Greater Wasatch Front, excepting longer commutes. Good interstate and highway access. Overall access to all services is good. Proximity to Greater Wasatch Front. Water This area is fully appropriated. Water would have to be purchased on the open market at an estimated cost of $5 million. Sewer The estimated sewer cost is $2 million, not subject to local control and should be same in any location under consideration. Local Government Response Local government responded with mixed feelings but is willing to work through the process. Rush Valley benefits from its proximity to the Wasatch Front as do Northeast Juab and Box Elder Counties. Rush Valley, however, is not experiencing the same growth pressure in the immediate area. Most growth is concentrated in the areas surrounding Tooele and Enoch. With adequate water supplies and an easy commute for existing prison employees, this location offers some of the most favorable conditions of all sites considered. • • • • • • • • Suitable surrounding population size and moderately diverse. Local need for employment. Wages tend to be close to Wasatch Front averages. Good transportation access (both state highway and interstate), though slightly farther from interstate than Grantsville. Proximity to educational institutions. Proximity to charities and population large enough to potentially sustain volunteer base. Proximity to Wasatch Front (providing access to more services, institutions and trained professional workforce). Sewer not immediately available. Closest plant is in Ophir. Water Some water is available. There has been some speculation in the water market in Rush Valley which may indicate the existence of surplus. The State Engineer believes part of the water will need to be acquired in the private market at an estimated cost of $1.5 to $2.5 million. Table E4. Specific Demographic Data for Tooele County Table E3. Specific Demographic Data for Juab County Juab County Tooele County /Rush Valley – High Suitability Capacity to Accommodate Prison Expansion Population (County Growth Racial Percent 2000 Popula- Projections 2000(Census) tion 2030 2030) Diversity Hispanic 8,332 14,712 1.90% - Capacity to Accommodate Prison Expansion Popula(Growth tion 2000 Population Projections Racial Percent (Census) 2030 2000-2030) Diversity Hispanic Tooele County Eureka 766 1,277 1.70% 2.30% 2.30% Levan 688 1,294 2.10% 2.60% 3.50% Rush Valley Mona 850 1,643 2.20% 1.80% 1.40% Stockton Nephi 4,733 8,209 1.90% 3.00% 2.50% Tooele 403 710 1.90% 0.70% 1.20% Vernon 4,834 25,860 5.70% 8.50% 8.60% Wendover Rocky Ridge Santaquin Source: Census 2000; MAG 2004 Grantsville 36,816 81,875 2.70% - 6,015 9,684 1.60% 4.30% 4.50% 453 629 1.10% 2.00% 1.10% 443 580 0.90% 5.00% 6.30% 22,502 44,513 2.30% 9.00% 10.10% 236 662 3.50% 5.90% 1,537 2,264 1.30% Source: Census 2000; MAG 2004 Public Review Draft 4.70% 56.00% 68.60% Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 10 Public Review Draft APPENDIX E 11 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Sewer The estimated sewer cost is $2 million, not subject to local control and should be same in any location under consideration. Local Government Response The County Commission intends to adopt a resolution opposing a prison anywhere in the county. there are available supporting institutions, but the local workforce may not be adequate in terms of both its current size and the projected draw of jobs in the mining and extractions sectors. Another consideration is poor access to the Wasatch Front during winter weather due to the sustained high elevation of Route 6 in Spanish Fork Canyon. • • Partial Relocation Carbon – Medium Suitability Carbon County is on the cusp of economic change as it courts a number of natural gas developments. In the past, the relocation of the prison may have been an attractive option for economic development in the eyes of local officials but this is now changing in light of gas development. The population is adequate and • • Local population barely meets required size but is quite diverse. High local unemployment at 6.3 percent and lower wages on average (95.5 percent of state average), although mining industries drive up wages for heavy machine operators and mechanics as well as provide good wages for those involved with production. Gas industries also likely to influence labor costs and availability. Overall labor pool is small. Fair access to state highways, poor access to interstates. Some question of winter safety along Spanish Fork Canyon. Table E5. Specific Demographic Data for Carbon County Population 2000 (Census) Carbon County 21,876 Population 2030 24,839 Capacity to Accommodate Prison Expansion (County Growth Projections 2000-2030) Racial diversity 0.4% Percent Hispanic 1,393 1,540 0.3% 18.9% 20.8% Helper 2,025 2,242 0.3% 7.4% 11.3% Price 8,402 9,655 0.5% 9.3% 10.1% 28 31 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 404 455 0.4% 9.2% 20.3% 1,868 0.4% 5.3% 4.9% East Carbon Scofield Sunnyside Wellington 1,666 Source: Census 2000; MAG 2004 Table E6. Specific Demographic Data for Iron County Capacity to Accommodate Prison Expansion (County Population 2000 Growth Projections 2000(Census) Population 2030 2030) 74,706 2.8% Iron County 32,564 240 2.4% Brian Head 118 51,076 3.1% Cedar City 20,527 8,400 3.0% Enoch 3,467 651 2.5% Kanarraville 311 992 2.5% Paragonah 470 Parowan 2,565 5,463 2.6% Racial diversity Source: Census 2000; MAG 2004 Public Review Draft Percent Hispanic Distance to Substance Abuse and Mental Health Centers (in miles) 0.8% 0.8% 7.9% 4.1% 5.2% 2.5% 4.5% 4.5% 1.9% 3.6% 1.5% 3.2% 58 49 55 37 70 65 Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 12 Public Review Draft APPENDIX E 13 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah • • Proximity to educational institutions. Small population to support charitable services and volunteer base. Only Price and Wellington offer reasonable proximity to sewer facilities. Water Water service is provided by the Price River Water Improvement District. According to the State Engineer, there have been some water quality issues related to water from the Scofield Reservoir treated for domestic use, but it is likely that sufficient water is available in the area. Minimal costs related to water acquisition are assumed. Sewer Sewer is estimated to cost $2 million, not subject to local control and should be same in any location under consideration. The booming growth of Washington and Iron County create an environment that is supportive of relocation in terms of the population base, though challenging in light of community aspirations and competing land uses. The boom in residential development and the retirement population will likely provide some resistance to relocation efforts in this area. Conversely, the growing population is supporting the expansion of local hospitals and community services at a rapid pace. The Cedar City/Enoch area benefits from the proximity of institutional support but notably lacks proximity to substance abuse and mental health services. The large distance from Salt Lake City is also a consideration that challenges the suitability of this area. • • Water This is a closed water area – e.g., all water is fully appropriated. Water must be purchased on the open market at an estimated cost of roughly $5 million. Some areas have unacceptable groundwater nitrite levels. Enoch has no capacity. Water service would be coordinated with a newly forming water conservancy district. Sewer The estimated cost of sewer is $2 million, not subject to local control and should be same in any location under consideration. Local Government Response Local government is open to consideration The impact of a full or partial prison relocation on each of the recommended communities was evaluated for the following areas: Cedar City/Enoch – Medium Suitability • Reasonable access to all other services. Over 200 miles from Salt Lake City. Community Impacts Local Government Response Local government is open to consideration. • • • Local population meets required size but is less diverse. Communities are growing quickly (2 – 3 percent per annum on average). Unemployment closer to state average and wages tend to be lower. Welders tend to command higher wages. Good interstate and highway access. Poor access to mental health and substance abuse services. • • • • • • • Local school districts and higher education institutions. Mental Health and Substance Abuse services. Ability of the local community to replace the volunteer workforce available at the Draper Prison. Employment impacts and available labor pool. Local law enforcement/local government and Courts. Local emergency services including BCLS and ACLS. Anticipated future community growth and the impact it would have on the new prison site. Each of the recommended communities is of sufficient size to have in place the types of services necessary to accommodate the prison population and the families which may choose to relocate. These services include a local school district and a higher education institution within 50 miles. All recommended communities, with the exception of Iron County have adequate mental health and substance abuse services. Capacity needs of the local providers will be assessed as the process moves forward. Additionally each of the recommended communities has available church and charitable organizations capable of providing religious and other volunteers to the prison. Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 14 Public Review Draft APPENDIX E 15 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah The current prison location employs 1,087 individuals. In the event of a full prison relocation, 100 percent of the jobs will be moved to the new facility. For a partial relocation the Department of Corrections anticipates a need for approximately 400 employees at the new location. The model assumes if the new location is within 25 miles of the employees’ current home location, 50 percent of the employees will commute or relocate to the new location and 50 percent will need to be replaced from the area labor pool. If the new location is between 25 and 50 miles from the employees’ current home location, 25 percent will commute or relocate to the new location and 75 percent will need to be replaced from the area labor pool. If the new location is more than 50 miles from the employees’ current home location, 10 percent will commute or relocate to the new location and 90 percent will need to be replaced from the area labor pool. Data received from the Department of Corrections indicates 85 percent of current employees at the Draper facility live within 25 miles of the facility in both Salt Lake and Utah Counties. The following table illustrates the expected employment needs in each recommended community for a partial and full relocation. Table E7. Estimated New Local Employment Associated With Prison Partial Full Relocation Community Relocation Box Elder 360 934 County Carbon County 360 N/A Iron County 360 N/A Juab County 300 779 Rush Valley 200 519 Source: Wikstrom Economic and Planning Consultants Inc. Each of the recommended communities has adequate population to support the employment needs associated with the prison relocation; however, two other considerations need to be made in evaluating the impact of the relocation on the community labor pool. The first is current and historical unemployment rates for the area and the second is wage rates in the area when compared with the state average wage rates. The following table provides this information for each recommended community. Table E8. Unemployment in Potential Communities Community Box Elder County Carbon County Iron County Juab County Tooele County (Rush Valley) Statewide 1999 Unemployment 4.8 7.1 3.7 2004 Unemployment 5.2 6.3 3.8 Relative Wages (Percent of State Average) 93.1 95.5 92.6 5 5.5 6.8 7.2 89.5 97.8 3.7 4.7 -- Source: Utah State Department of Workforce Services Iron County is the only community nearing full employment which may create a recruiting issue for partial relocation to the area. The rest of the communities appear to have an adequate labor pool. The relative wage index also indicates the Department of Corrections will be able to offer competitive wages for prospective employees in all jurisdictions. The Rush Valley location and areas of Juab County, however, may experience more upward wage pressure than other locations due to proximity to Salt Lake and Utah Counties. The current prison location is within the jurisdiction of the Salt Lake County Sheriff, the Salt Lake County Attorney and the Third District Court of Utah. Any incidents at the prison are investigated by the Salt Lake County Sheriff’s Office and prosecuted by the Salt Lake County Attorney in the Third District or Salt Lake County Justice Court. The volume of cases originating at the prison has, historically, been approximately 47 per year. In the event of a full relocation, the new community can anticipate a similar experience. The following table shows the current volume of filings in each of the courts having jurisdiction in the recommended communities. The column on the far right indicates the percentage of increase that can be anticipated in the event of a full relocation. Table E9. Potential Impact on Local Courts Community Box Elder County Juab County Rush Valley Judicial District 1 4 3 2004 Filings 4,492 284 1,702 Source: Utah State Court Administrators Office, 2005 Public Review Draft Percentage Anticipated Increase 1% 17% 3% Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 16 In the event of a partial relocation, approximately 36 percent of the inmates would be relocated. The populations which would remain at the Draper facility would include the women, maximum security and special populations. Because the relocated populations are the medium, minimum, and pre-release populations, it is assumed prosecutions occurring in the new community would be minimal. However, an analysis of the potential volume of prosecutions can only go so far in identifying the potential impact on a recommended community’s law enforcement and courts system. One trial in Sanpete County, the Troy Kell Trial, is estimated to have cost the Sanpete County Attorney’s Office between $250,000 and $300,000 which represents a catastrophic impact on the budget of a small jurisdiction. Table E10. Emergency Responders by County County License Holder Brigham City Ambulance Intermediate Ambulance Tremonton Ambulance Intermediate Ambulance Box Elder County Basic Ambulance Plymouth Ambulance Intermediate Ambulance ATK Thiokol Intermediate Ambulance Box Elder Curlew County Willard First Responders Honeyville Fire Dept. Carbon County License Level Intermediate Ambulance There are approximate 11,000 medical transports annually of inmates at the Draper prison. It is unclear how many of the transports required paramedic or ambulance level services. As the process progresses the level of emergency medical services available at each recommended community will need to be further refined with adjustments or upgrades to the system identified. The final issue in evaluating community impacts at the feasibility study level is the growth potential in each of the recommended communities. The Draper Prison location has been surrounded by suburban growth which has resulted in pressure from the surrounding community to relocate. Of the recommended communities, projected growth through 2030 ranges from 0.40 percent to 3.5 percent. This compares with the Salt Lake County-wide projected growth rate of 1.4 percent. Table E11. Growth Potential By County Quick Response Unit – Basic Quick Response Unit – Basic Community 2030 Growth Projections Fielding First Responders Quick Response Unit – Basic Box Elder County 1.8% Thatcher-Penrose Fire Department Quick Response Unit – Basic Carbon County 0.4% Sunnyside Intermediate Ambulance Iron County Juab County 2.8% 1.9% Carbon County Intermediate/Advanced Ambulance Tooele County 3.5% Rush Valley 2.4% Helper Fire Department Quick Response Unit – Basic Iron County Iron County/Parowan Intermediate Ambulance Iron County/Parowan Paramedic Rescue Ambulance Juab County Juab County Nephi Levan Town Ambulance Wendover Ambulance Tooele Hospital Deseret Generation Stockton Fire Department Intermediate Ambulance Intermediate Ambulance Intermediate Ambulance Intermediate Ambulance Basic Ambulance Quick Response Unit – Basic Tooele County Each of the recommended communities has medical facilities with board certified emergency room personnel within 30 miles. Additionally, emergency responder licenses are in place within each recommended community as presented in Table E10. Source: Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, 2005 No. Tooele Fire Service Dis- Quick Response Unit – Intermetrict diate The projected growth rate is not constant across each of the counties. For example, the growth rate in Draper is 2.3 percent. As the process moves forward areas of high growth will need to be identified and evaluated for potential future impact on any proposed prison location. Wendover First Responders Quick Response Unit – Basic Source: Utah Department of Health, Emergency Medical Services Website, 2005 Public Review Draft APPENDIX E 17 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 18 Public Review Draft APPENDIX E 19 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 20 Public Review Draft APPENDIX E 21 Prison Relocation Feasibility Study State of Utah Public Review Draft Wikstrom Economic & Planning Consultants 22 Public Review Draft