A Decade
of Truth-InSentencing
in Virginia

A decade ago,
Virginia abolished
parole and adopted
truth-in-sentencing
for convicted felons.
Over 200,000
criminals have been
punished under
no-parole laws.
At this milestone,
a close look is taken
at the performance
of our sentencing
system.

1

Truth-in-sentencing
has been achieved

A primary goal of sentencing reform
was to reduce drastically the gap
between the sentence pronounced in
the courtroom and the incarceration
time actually served. Prior to 1995,
extensive good conduct credits combined with parole resulted in many
inmates serving as little as one-fifth
of their sentence. Under truth-insentencing, a felon must serve at least
85% of his sentence and, in fact, most
felons are now serving 90% of their
incarceration terms.

Percentage of Prison Sentence Served
85%

Larceny
Sale of Marijuana
Sale of Schedule I/II Drug
Burglary
Robbery
Malicious Wounding
Rape/Forcible Sodomy
Voluntary Manslaughter
2nd Degree Murder
1st Degree Murder
0%

20%

40%

60%

■ Previous Parole System
■ Current Truth-In-Sentencing

Truth-in-Sentencing Achieved

80%

100%

2

Under no-parole, violent
felons are spending
significantly more time
in prison

To better ensure public safety, sentence
reform targeted violent offenders for
longer prison terms. The truth-insentencing guidelines were carefully
crafted with enhancements designed to
yield longer sentencing recommendations
for offenders with current or prior convictions for violent crimes. Today, prison
stays for violent felons are significantly
longer than those historically served and
are among the longest in the nation.

Prison Time Served in Years

Forcible Rape

Robbery with Firearm
32

17.2

17.8
8.9
5.6

None

11.7

6.7

7.2

6.7

Less Serious
More Serious
Prior Violent Record

First-Degree Murder

4.1

3.8

2.7
None

Less Serious

More Serious

Prior Violent Record

Second-Degree Murder

45.6

43.8

31.9

24.6

22.4
16.1
14.1

12.4

14.7

4.9

None

Less Serious
More Serious
Prior Violent Record

■ Parole System

None

6.6

Less Serious
Prior Violent Record

■ Truth-In-Sentencing (Projected)

Violent Felons Punished Longer

7.2

More Serious

3

There are fewer repeat
violent offenders

Targeting young violent offenders for longer terms
of incarceration incapacitates at-risk offenders
during years in which they are most likely to
engage in crime. Between the ages of 15 and 24,
a person is at greatest risk of becoming involved
in violent criminal behavior, such as robbery.

Age of Robbery Arrestees, 2003
Arrests

Peak Age: 18

150
120
90
60
30
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Age

Longer prison terms for violent offenders
should result in fewer repeat violent offenders.
While the full effect will not be realized for
years to come, Virginia’s courts are already
seeing fewer violent recidivists. In 1996,
more than 28% of violent offenders had a
violent felony record. By 2004, this figure
had dropped to 24%.

Percentage of Violent Recidivists Convicted
in Circuit Courts
1996
2004

28.4%
24.4%

Violent Recidivism Down

4

A greater share of
expensive prison
beds are being used
by violent felons

Reserving expensive prison beds for the
most dangerous offenders was an important objective of the sentencing reforms.
Due to the focused use of long incarceration terms for violent felons, it was
expected that these criminals would
queue up in the prison system. Indeed,
after a decade of truth-in-sentencing,
the composition of Virginia’s prison
population is undergoing a dramatic
shift, with violent felons now comprising
a significantly larger share of costly and
limited prison space. This shift is expected to continue.

Percent of Prison Beds Occupied by
Violent Offenders
1994
2004

58.8%
68.5%

Effective Use of Prison Space

5

Many lower-risk felons
are being punished
through alternative
sanctions in lieu of
prison without compromising public safety

Virginia’s sentencing system is unique
in that risk assessment, based on the
predicted likelihood of future dangerousness, is integrated into the sentencing
guidelines. Safely punishing lower-risk
nonviolent felons through alternative
sanctions is freeing up scarce prison beds
to house the more dangerous offenders.
According to the Vera Institute of Justice,
the 26% drop in Virginia’s crime rate has
exceeded the decline in crime nationally.
At the same time, Virginia’s incarceration rate has grown just 6%, well below
the national growth rate, indicating
greater discipline and benefit in the use
of expensive prison beds as sanctions.

Change in Crime and Incarceration
Rates, 1994 to 2000 –– Virginia v. U.S.
22%

VA
United States

Virginia

-26%

United States

6%

Incarceration Rate

-24%

Crime Rate

Risk Assessment Successful

6

Prison population
growth has
slowed

Despite the unequivocal evidence that
violent offenders are serving significantly longer incarceration terms than
those previously recorded, Virginia’s
prison population growth has stabilized
and become more predictable and
manageable. The prison population
grew 154% in the decade immediately
preceding the adoption of truth-insentencing. Since then, the prison
population has grown a total of just
31%. Despite substantially longer
prison stays for violent offenders,
judicial use of risk assessment and
alternative punishment options has
brought our prison growth under
control and made it more predictable.

Prison Population Growth

1985 - 1995
1995 - 2004

154%
31%

Prison Growth Slowed

7

The overall crime rate
has been declining

On the heels of rising crime rates in the
late 1970s, crime in Virginia declined
somewhat during the early 1980s. A
distinctive turnaround began in 1986 and
crime rates rose steeply into the early 1990s.
Over the last decade, however, the crime rate
has dropped. With the exception of a slight
increase in 2001, the downturn is the
longest sustained period of decline in the
crime rate in more than 35 years. In
2002, the overall serious crime rate was
lower than at any point since before 1970.
Citizens of the Commonwealth are, today,
safer from crime than a decade ago. Virginia’s focused approach to sanctioning

offenders has reserved scarce and expensive prison beds for the most dangerous
offenders and promoted the use of less
costly punishment options for less
serious offenders––all while maintaining
public safety.

Overall Crime per 100,000 Residents

5,000

Truth-in-Sentencing Implemented

4,000

3,000
2,000
1970

1980

1990

Lower Overall Crime Rate

2002

8

The violent crime
rate also has been
decreasing

After more than a decade of relative stability,
beginning in the late 1980s the violent crime
rate grew steeply. Over the past decade,
violent crime has declined approximately
20%. Violent crime today is at its lowest
since 1978. In 2003, the number of
murders was 28% lower than the number in
1994. Similarly, robberies dropped 23%.
During the same period, the number of
serious assaults declined by 10% and forcible
rapes reported in the Commonwealth had
decreased by 8%. After ten years of truthin-sentencing, fewer Virginians are victims
of violent crime.

Violent Crimes per 100,000 Residents

400

Truth-in-Sentencing Implemented

350

300
250
1970

1980

1990

Violent Crime Down

2002

9

Judges comply with
voluntary sentencing
guidelines at a very
high rate

Sentencing guidelines play a unique and
critical role in ensuring the continuing
success of the truth-in-sentencing reform.
Judicial acceptance of the guidelines has
been crucial in the successful transition
from sentencing in a scheme based on
parole and generous time off for good
inmate conduct to a system in which
felons must serve at least 85% of the court
imposed jail or prison term. Judicial
compliance with the guidelines was nearly
75% when first implemented and has
climbed nearly every year over the past
decade to its highest recorded level in
2004––81%. The impressive compliance
rate surpasses that found in many other
places with mandatory guidelines systems.
The ongoing success of voluntary guidelines in Virginia reflects the confidence of
the judiciary in these benchmarks.

Guidelines Compliance Trend
82%

79%

76%

73%

70%
1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Sentencing Guidelines Successful

10

Unwarranted
sentencing
disparity has
been significantly
reduced

The voluntary sentencing guidelines
have greatly alleviated unwarranted
sentencing disparities across the Commonwealth. Prior to the adoption of
the sentencing guidelines, approximately half of the variation in judicial
sentences could be explained by factors
unrelated to the nature of the crime or
the felon’s prior criminal record. Such
non-guidelines factors included the
identity of the judge, locality and the
offender’s race. Under the sentencing
guidelines system in place today, a significantly larger share of the variation is
now attributable to distinctions across
crimes and criminals. Virginia’s guidelines,
despite their discretionary nature, serve
to reduce disparity over the long term.

Importance of Factors in Sentencing Decisions

Relative Importance

Guideline Factors

▼

Before
Truth-in-Sentencing

▼

Non-Guideline Factors

After
Truth-in-Sentencing

Sentencing Disparity Reduced

B

y all measures, the sweeping overhaul of

the felony sentencing system adopted in
1994 has, to date, been a resounding and
unequivocal success. A decade after the
historic enactment of truth-in-sentencing
legislation in Virginia, there is substantial
evidence that the system is achieving what
its designers intended.

Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission
100 N. 9th Street
Richmond, VA 23219
(804) 225-4398
www.vcsc.state.va.us