Washington State
Institute for
Public Policy
110 Fifth Avenue Southeast, Suite 214 • PO Box 40999 • Olympia, WA 98504-0999 • (360) 586-2677 • www.wsipp.wa.gov

January 2006

SEX OFFENDER SENTENCING IN WASHINGTON STATE:
FAILURE TO REGISTER AS A SEX OFFENDER—REVISED
The 2004 Legislature directed the Washington
State Institute for Public Policy (Institute) to
evaluate the effectiveness of sex offender
sentencing policies in Washington State.1
Because this topic is extensive, we are publishing
a series of reports.
The 1990 Community Protection Act requires sex
offenders residing in Washington State to register
with the sheriff in their county of residence.2 The
law applies to adults and juveniles convicted of any
sex offense. Sex offenders must register in their
county of residence following their release from
prison or jail or their placement on community
supervision or after moving to Washington State.
When relocating to a new county, offenders must
update their registration in the new location. Failure
to register is either a felony or misdemeanor
offense.3
This report examines the relationship between
failure to register as a sex offender and
subsequent recidivism.
The study sample includes Washington State
Department of Corrections (DOC) sex offenders
released from prison or jail or sentenced to
community supervision. The data regarding failure to
register convictions are from the Institute’s criminal
justice database.4 The analysis first examines the
percentage of sex offenders with a conviction for
failure to register during the five-year period following
placement in the community.5 We then compare the
characteristics and recidivism of those convicted of
failure to register with those not convicted of this
crime.
1

ESHB 2400, Chapter 176, Laws of 2004.
RCW 9A.44.130
3
The statutes distinguishing felony from misdemeanor failure
to register offenses have changed over time. See 9A.44.130
for the current definition.
4
The Institute combines data from the Administrative Office of
the Courts and the Department of Corrections to form a
comprehensive database of convictions in Washington State.
5
Placement in the community means release from prison or
jail or placement directly on community supervision.
2

SUMMARY
This report examines the relationship between
failure to register as a sex offender and
subsequent recidivism.
Findings
•

Almost one-fifth of sex offenders required to
register are convicted of failure to register.

•

The percentage of sex offenders convicted
of failure to register has steadily increased
since the 1990 law established the
requirement: from 5 percent for sex
offenders placed in the community during
1990 to 18 percent placed in the community
during 1999.

•

Convictions for failure to register occurred
throughout the five-year follow-up period
and were not concentrated during the first
few months after placement in the
community.

•

It is not possible to accurately predict the
characteristics of those likely to fail to
register by examining demographic
characteristics and criminal history.

•

Sex offenders convicted of failure to register
have higher subsequent recidivism rates
than those without a conviction:
9

38.5 percent versus 22.9 percent for
felony recidivism

9

15.8 percent versus 9.4 percent for
violent felony

9

4.3 percent versus 2.8 percent for felony
sex convictions.

That is, sex offenders with a conviction for
failure to register have recidivism rates that are
50 percent higher than the rates of those
without a conviction.

Exhibit 2

Exhibit 1 displays the percentage of sex offenders
convicted of failure to register during the five-year
period following their release from prison or jail or
their placement on community supervision.6 For
example, during 1990, 1,159 offenders were placed
in the community and 5 percent had at least one
conviction for failure to register during the next five
years.

Cumulative Percentage of Offenders With a
Failure to Register Conviction for Offenders
Placed in Community Since 1997

Cumulative Percent

20%

The percentage of sex offenders convicted of
failure to register has been steadily increasing
since the 1990 legislation: from 5 percent in 1990
to 18 percent in 1999.

15%

10%

5%

0%

Exhibit 1

0

Trend in Percentage of Sex Offenders
With a Subsequent Failure to Register Conviction
Year of
Community
Placement
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

Number of
Offenders
1,159
1,106
1,211
1,279
1,205
1,159
1,097
1,255
1,439
1,100

Failure to
Register
Conviction
5%
6%
7%
8%
10%
11%
14%
16%
16%
18%

Exhibit 2 illustrates the cumulative percentage of
sex offenders convicted of a failure to register by
months since placement in the community.7 To
represent the most current cohort of sex offenders,
the sample includes placements in the community
between 1997 and 1999. Approximately 4 percent
failed to register within six months of placement in
the community, 6 percent within 12 months, 9
percent within two years, and 17 percent within five
years. On average, approximately 2 percent failed
to register every six months.
Sex offenders who failed to register did so
throughout the five-year follow-up period and not
only within the first few months of placement in the
community.

6

A five-year follow-up period is need to adequately measure
sex offender recidivism.
7
Number of months since placement is based on time
between the date of community placement and the offense
date recorded in the criminal justice databases for the failure
to register.

12

24

36

48

60

Months In Community

Exhibit 3 compares demographic and prior
criminal record characteristics of sex offenders
convicted of failure to register with those without
this conviction. The characteristics are presented
in decreasing order of the strength of association
(based on the Area Under the Receiver Operating
Characteristic, or AUC). The AUC is the best
measure of association for the dichotomous
outcome of recidivism.8 The AUC varies between
.500 and 1.00. AUCs in the .500s indicate little to
no association, .600s indicate weak association,
.700s moderate, and those above .800 strong
associations.9
The first four offender characteristics are measures
empirically designed to predict any felony and then
violent felony recidivism for the general DOC
population.10 Although these measures have the
largest AUCs, they weakly differentiate those with a
failure to register from those without. All other
offender characteristics have no relationship with
having failed to register. The best combination of
offender characteristics has an AUC slightly above
.700, which means a moderate degree of
differentiation is possible.11

8

V.L. Quinsey, G.T. Harris, M.E. Rice, C.A. Cormier (2005).
Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk, Second
Edition, Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
9
University of Michigan (2003). The area under an ROC
curve. See: http://gim.unmc.edu/dxtests/roc3.htm
10
A future report will describe the development of these risk
measures by the Institute.
11
The best combination is based on a multivariate statistical
technique: logistic regression. Statistical techniques are used
to combine variables to produce a score that is optimally
associated with recidivism.

That is, it is not possible to accurately identify who
is likely to fail to register based on demographics
and criminal history. To have moderately accurate
prediction requires an AUC of at least .750.

three types of recidivism: a conviction in
Washington State for (1) any new felony offense,
(2) any new violent felony offense, and (3) any
new felony sex offense.13

Exhibit 3

To allow sufficient follow-up time, the study
sample includes sex offenders released to the
community before October 1999. Three types of
recidivism are measured: any felony, violent
felony, and felony sex. To represent the most
current cohort of those who fail to register, the
analysis sample includes placements in the
community between 1997 and 1999.

Association Between Failure to Register and
Offender Characteristics for Offenders
Placed in Community Since 1997
Offender Characteristic
Violent/Property Felony Risk Score
Felony Risk Score
Violent Felony Risk Score
Child-Sex Risk Score
Number of DOC Commitments
Age at Release
Juvenile Felony Sex Adjudications
Prior Sex Register Convictions
Prior Felony Property Convictions
Non-Child-Sex Risk Score
Juvenile Violent Felony
Adjudications
Juvenile Felony Sex Adjudications
Commitments to Juvenile Institution
(JRA)
Prior Felony Sex Convictions
Prior Misdemeanor Assault NonDomestic Violence Convictions
Prior Misdemeanor Alcohol
Convictions
Sentence Violations
Misdemeanor Domestic Violence
Assault Convictions
Prior Felony Non-Domestic Violence
Assault Convictions
African American
European American
Male
Native American
Asian American
Prior Felony Domestic Violence
Assault Convictions
Prior Felony Robbery Convictions
Homicide Convictions
Prior Misdemeanor Sex Convictions
Prior Misdemeanor Other Domestic
Violence Convictions
Prior Felony Drug Convictions

AUC*
0.682
0.676
0.672
0.626
0.605
0.580
0.574
0.572
0.572
0.555

Odds
Ratio
1.04
1.03
1.06
1.42
1.29
1.46
1.43
4.32
1.28
1.07

Prob.
Level
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001

0.553
0.549

2.09
3.16

0.001
0.001

0.545
0.544

1.79
0.63

0.001
0.001

0.544

1.31

0.001

0.539
0.539

1.73
1.73

0.001
0.001

0.538

1.52

0.001

0.517
0.514
0.513
0.510
0.510
0.509

1.31
1.22
0.86
2.99
1.91
0.13

0.006
0.075
0.140
0.005
0.003
0.005

0.504
0.503
0.502
0.501

1.30
0.85
0.23
0.98

0.236
0.426
0.156
0.930

0.501
0.500

0.76
0.99

0.604
0.843

* AUC = Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic

We now compare the recidivism rates of those with
a failure to register conviction to those without this
conviction. Recidivism is a conviction for an
offense committed during the five-year period after
the offender leaves prison or jail or upon release
directly to community supervision.12 We measure

Exhibit 4 displays the five-year recidivism rates
for three types of sex offenders placed in the
community during 1997 to 1999: those with (1) no
failure to register conviction, (2) misdemeanor
failure to register conviction, and (3) felony failure
to register conviction in their past. Only 14 of the
3,794 offenders in the sample have a felony-level
failure to register conviction, whereas 848 have a
misdemeanor failure to register conviction. The
remaining 2,932 offenders do not have a failure to
register conviction.
Those with a failure to register conviction have a
38.5 percent felony recidivism rate compared with
22.9 percent for those without a failure to register.
In addition, the violent felony and felony sex
recidivism rates for those with a failure to register
conviction are higher than the rates of those
without.
That is, sex offenders with a conviction for failing
to register have recidivism rates that are a 50
percent increase over the rates of those without a
conviction.
Exhibit 4

Failure to Register Conviction and Subsequent
Recidivism for Sex Offenders Placed in Community
From 1997 to 1999
Type of Failure
to Register
Conviction
No Conviction
Any Conviction
Misdemeanor
Felony

13

12

R. Barnoski (2005). Sex offender sentencing in Washington
State: Measuring recidivism. (Document No. 05-08-1202.)
Olympia: Washington State Institute for Public Policy.

Number
of
Offenders
2,932
862
848
14

Five-Year Felony Recidivism
Any
Violent
Felony
Felony Felony
Sex
22.9%
9.4%
2.8%
38.5%
15.8%
4.3%
38.2%
15.8%
4.4%
57.1%
14.3%
0.0%

Felony recidivism includes reoffending for any felony
offense. Violent felony recidivism includes homicide, sex,
robbery, assault, and weapon offenses. Felony sex
recidivism is also included in violent felony recidivism.

Exhibit 5 displays the recidivism rates for
offenders with one, two, and three or more
convictions for failure to register. Felony
recidivism rates increase with the number of failure
to register convictions: 36.3 percent for those with
one conviction, 44.3 percent for those with two,
and 50.0 percent for those with three or more
convictions. The violent felony recidivism rates do
not increase with the number of failure to register
convictions, and the and felony sex decrease with
the number of failure to register convictions.
Exhibit 5

Conclusions
•

Almost one-fifth of sex offenders required to
register are convicted of failure to register.

•

The percentage of sex offenders convicted of
failure to register has been steadily increasing
since passage of the 1990 legislation requiring
registration: from 5 percent for sex offenders
placed in the community during 1990 to 18
percent for those placed in the community in
1999.

•

Sex offenders who fail to register do so
throughout the five-year follow-up period, not
just within the first few months of being in the
community.

•

It is not possible to accurately identify who is
going to fail to register based on demographic
characteristics and criminal history.

•

Sex offenders convicted of failure to register
have higher subsequent recidivism rates than
those without a conviction:

Number of Failure to Register Convictions and
Subsequent Recidivism for Sex Offenders Placed in
Community From 1997 to 1999
Number of
Failure to
Register
Convictions

Number
of
Offenders

1
2
3+

666
140
56

Five-Year Felony Recidivism
Any
Felony

36.3%
44.3%
50.0%

Violent
Felony

Felony
Sex

15.8%
17.1%
12.5%

4.7%
4.3%
0.0%

9 38.5 percent versus 22.9 percent for
felony recidivism
9 15.8 percent versus 9.4 percent for violent
felony
9 4.3 percent versus 2.8 percent for felony
sex convictions.
That is, sex offenders with a conviction for failure to
register have recidivism rates that are 50 percent
higher than the rates of those without a conviction.

For further information, contact Robert Barnoski at
(360) 586-2744 or barney@wsipp.wa.gov

Document No. 06-01-1203A

Washington State
Institute for
Public Policy
The Washington State Legislature created the Washington State Institute for Public Policy in 1983. A Board of Directors—representing the legislature,
the governor, and public universities—governs the Institute and guides the development of all activities. The Institute’s mission is to carry out practical
research, at legislative direction, on issues of importance to Washington State.